How to calculate the unemployment rate. Unemployment Rate Calculation Unemployment Rate Formula Words
To the unemployed includes persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population, who, during the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:
did not have a job (profitable occupation);
engaged in job search, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the organization (employer), used personal connections, etc. or took steps to start their own business;
were ready to start work during the survey week.
Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.
The unemployed registered with state institutions of the employment service include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), residing on the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with the employment service at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start her.
Unemployment rate- the ratio of the number of unemployed of a certain age group to the number of economically active population of the corresponding age group, %.
Unemployment rate formula
Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total labor force.
It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:
31. Types of unemployment
1. Frictional - the unemployed who are between jobs and it is customary to refer to this category: seasonal workers, people who change jobs, people who are looking for work 1 time. Objective unemployment.
2. Structural unemployment - workers who lost their jobs due to the obsolescence of their profession or liquidation: associated with the renewal of production technology and require retraining or advanced training; objective unemployment.
The sum of the two types of unemployment is the natural rate of unemployment.
3. Cyclical unemployment - occurs in the economy at the time of the onset of the economic crisis or decline in production; The crisis starts if General Unemployment Level > Natural Unemployment Level. Periodically appears and disappears. Ur.cycle.bezr \u003d Ur.vol. - Ur eats.
4. Hidden unemployment - the employed population who does not work and receives no wages. Identify species that cannot be counted.
1. Employed who are not full time or weekly.
Employees on forced leave without pay.
2. Hidden unemployed who are officially employed, but at the same time perform types of work with a skill level lower than the qualification that they performed.
FULL EMPLOYMENT - the presence of a sufficient number of jobs to meet the demands for work of the entire working-age population of the country, the practical absence of long-term unemployment, the ability to provide those who wish to work jobs that correspond to their professional orientation, education, and work experience.
32. The main negative factor of unemployment This is an unreleased product. When the economy fails to create enough jobs for all who are willing and able to work, the potential production of goods and services is lost forever.
Unequal burden. Behind the general figures lies the fact that the costs of unemployment are distributed unequally; With an increase in unemployment, the working day and wages of various categories of workers change disproportionately.
First, the unemployment rate among women is higher than among men;
Secondly, the unemployment rate among young people (graduates of schools and universities) is much higher than among adults;
Thirdly, at present in Russia the demand for workers in the age group over 45-50 years is very limited. This means that people in the older age groups are the highest affected by unemployment more than other categories of workers.
Non-economic costs of unemployment. History convincingly shows that mass unemployment leads to rapid, sometimes very turbulent, social and political change. Examples of such changes are Hitler's rise to power amid widespread unemployment and President Roosevelt's New Deal during the Great Depression of the 1930s. For Russia, social tension is especially pronounced in labor-surplus regions, primarily in the Caucasian republics. Crime is growing especially rapidly in conditions of unemployment, the number of suicides, cardiovascular and mental diseases is growing intensively, the number of alcoholics and drug addicts is growing.
A. Oken mathematically expressed the relationship between the unemployment rate and the lag in the volume of GNP. This dependency, known as Okun's law , shows that if the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural rate by 1%, then the lag in GDP is 2.5%. For example, during the recession (2011) in the United States, the unemployment rate reached 9.5%, or 3.5% above the natural rate, i.e. 6%. Multiplying these 3.5% by the Okun coefficient (2.5), we get that in 2011 the gap in GDP was 8.75%.
It should be noted that the dependence derived by A. Oken is empirical, so it can be used with some caution, since the error for different countries and time periods may be too large.
Okun's law: other things being equal, the excess of the general unemployment rate over its natural rate by 1% leads to a reduction in GDP by 2.5%.
33. Fighting unemployment- a set of measures to reduce unemployment. Methods of combating unemployment are determined by the authorities of a particular country. For the effective implementation of these methods, it is required to identify the factors that determine the ratio of demand and supply of labor. It is obvious that only a factor-oriented policy of influencing the labor market can bring results. Reducing unemployment is an extremely difficult task, as there are many types of it. Therefore, it is impossible to work out a single way to deal with unemployment, and any state has to use different methods to solve this problem. The measures described below are considered in relation to a market economy, but some can be applied within the framework of a command economy or only in it, as will be specially noted.
If the actual unemployment rate is above the natural rate, the economy is in recession, and if the actual rate is below the natural rate, then inflation is expected to rise significantly (because the economy is overheating).
So what is the natural rate of unemployment and why is it not equal to zero? The natural rate of unemployment. natural rate of unemploymentis the unemployment rate that corresponds to potential GDP or, equivalently, long-term aggregate demand. In other words, the natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment when the economy neither overheats nor falls into recession - the combination of frictional and structural unemployment.
For this reason, the natural rate of unemployment is the rate, where cyclical unemployment is zero. Note, however, that this does not mean that the natural rate of unemployment is zero, as there is frictional and structural unemployment.
How is natural unemployment calculated?
The overall unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the total number of unemployed people (U) by the total number of people in the labor force (LF). The labor force consists of adults of working age who want to work.
U ÷ LF = General unemployment rate
(FU + SU) ÷ LF = Natural Unemployment Rate
To calculate the natural rate, first add the frictional unemployed (FU) to the structural unemployed (SU) and then divide that number by the total labor force.
Types of unemployment
There are 3 types of unemployment:
Structural unemployment
frictional unemployment
Cyclical unemployment
The first two together are“ natural” , and the latter is the factor that causes inflation to either accelerate or slow down.
1. Structural unemployment Unemployment is unemployment that is caused by minimum wage regulation, unionization, mismatch between workers' skills and employers' needs, or social benefits. The reason why this unemployment is considered“ natural” is that, that these barriers will always exist. For example, consider the minimum wage. The minimum wage set the price of labor above value. So firms decide not to hire workers. The situation will not change in the long term.
2. Frictional unemployment is unemployment resulting from job changes, moving, finding a suitable position. Usually this is not a negative phenomenon, since this factor has a temporary significance. However, since there is always a certain proportion of the labor market looking for a new job, this unemployment will persist in the long run.
The natural rate of unemployment in the United States
Source: Fed
3. Cyclical unemployment is unemployment that is not part of the natural rate of unemployment. It is driven by a cycle of growth and decline., that is, either short-term fluctuations in aggregate demand or supply. In the long run, its equilibrium value tends to zero.
Cyclical unemployment occurs during a downturn in the business cycle when demand for goods and services declines and companies respond by cutting production and laying off workers. During an economic downturn, the number of workers exceeds the number of available jobs. The result is unemployment.
Economists use the cyclical unemployment rate to assess the health of the entire economy or its individual sectors. Cyclical unemployment can be short-term, lasting a few weeks for some people, or long term. It all depends on the extent of the economic downturn and which industries are most affected. Central bank economists typically focus on addressing the root causes of economic downturns rather than correcting cyclical unemployment.
With high cyclical unemployment, we are in a situation of imbalance. And when the economy is in disequilibrium, it will eventually return to equilibrium.. As this happens, the price level will change, and a change in the price level will lead to inflation. Thus, inflation will accelerate to equilibrium.
Thus, since frictional and structural unemployment will always exist, there will always be a natural rate of unemployment.
conclusions
A long-term stable unemployment rate, which is characterized by a stable healthy change in wages and inflation. Attempts to shift the economy to a lower unemployment rate (than its natural rate) through fiscal policy or monetary easing will be unsuccessful, as market expectations from this kind of stimulus will lead to faster inflation and wage growth. And an excessively high level of inflation is unfavorable for the Central Bank. Therefore, subsequently the regulator will have to take inflation under control by tightening monetary policy or reducing government spending, which will bring the unemployment rate to its previous natural level.
The natural rate of unemployment may change in response to changes in the structure of the labor force. On a graph, the natural rate of unemployment is usually marked by a vertical Phillips curve.
Unemployment is a widespread phenomenon. There is not a single place in the world where this phenomenon does not occur.
It affects all spheres of human life, provoking changes in production.
The calculation of the unemployment rate is carried out by analyzing the ratio of the number of citizens who are unable to get a job, while being able to work, to the number of employed persons. Within the Russian Federation, the number of unemployed, since 2014, has been steadily growing.
Fundamentals of unemployment - concept, analysis, accounting
The economic development of the country, in part, is expressed in the unemployment rate. It is a socio-economic phenomenon in which the active part of the population cannot find a job, is recognized as if "superfluous", among the main labor mass.
The International Labor Organization has defined the unemployed. Thus, a person who does not have a permanent job is recognized as unemployed, is in search of work and can readily start it. It is very important that this person was officially registered in the unemployment fund.
It is noteworthy that the number of unemployed in each period varies depending on the change in the cycle and the rate of economic growth, on how much the labor productivity index has increased or decreased, as well as on the level of the skill structure and the demand for labor.
Evaluation of indicators, which exert an influencing pressure on the unemployment rate, is produced by:
- Calculation of the coefficient of employment of the population.
- Definitions of the unemployment rate.
- Conclusion of the percentage of natural unemployment.
The first coefficient determines the specific number of the adult population that is directly employed in the production process on a national scale. The second indicator is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the number of workers. The last indicator is the percentage ratio between the unemployed and the workers at the moment of economic prosperity.
It is important to understand that the rate of unemployment or its rate, may change constantly due to the influence of production. Depending on the cycle, namely, the growth or recession of the economy and the volatility of production, technical progress, depending on the qualifications of employees, the professionalism of hired personnel. If the trend of the unemployment rate falls down, then there is an expansion and rise in production, otherwise, there is an increase in the indicator. Moreover, the dynamics of GNP and unemployment are inextricably linked.
Unemployment can considered in these aspects:
- Forced.
- Registered.
- marginal.
- Unstable.
- Technological.
- Structural.
At forced or voluntary unemployment, as a rule, the worker himself seeks to work at a certain level of wages and certain conditions, but cannot get a job. Or the employee does not want to work on conditions of low wages (voluntary unemployment). The second option tends to increase during an economic boom, or vice versa - it decreases during its recession. The scale and duration of this type of unemployment depend on the professionalism and qualifications of workers, on the socio-demographic group of the population.
At registered unemployment part of the unemployed population is looking for work and is registered with the employment fund.
marginal unemployment characterized by the lack of work among the weakly protected segment of the population and in the social lower classes.
At unstable varieties of unemployment, the decisive factor will be a temporary problem associated with stopping the growth of production.
Hidden the type of unemployment is not officially recognized unemployment, but seasonal, one that occurs only in certain sectors of the economy, as workers are needed in such production.
There is also technological unemployment, which is caused by the adjustment of the production process through the use of the mechanism. With this type of unemployment, as a rule, productivity increases there, but less costs are required to improve the skills of employees.
There is a type of unemployment institutional
. This type can be characterized as a combination of trade union or state intervention in the establishment of wages, which should be formed on the basis of market demand.
Unemployment may occur Consequently:
- Apply measures to improve the economic structure. This implies the manifestation and implementation of equipment that entails job cuts. That is, "machine" production displaces human labor.
- Fluctuations for a certain season. This means that the level of a certain production has a place to increase or decrease, depending on the season, in each individual industry.
- The cyclical nature of the economy. During an economic recession or crisis, the need for the use of human resources may decrease.
- Changes in the demographic picture. The growth of the working population in this case leads to the fact that with an increase it entails a proportional decrease in the need for labor.
- Political influence on the sphere of wages.
The emergence of such a socio-economic condition as unemployment inevitably entails such consequences:
- Economic changes.
- Non-economic changes.
The first case entails:
- reduction of federal budget financing revenues by minimizing tax revenues - ;
- costs are rising as a public burden on funding and disbursements, . Retraining of workers, etc.;
- the standard of living goes down. In particular, people who have lost their jobs lose their wealth, respectively, their quality of life becomes lower;
- output is reduced due to the fact that there is a backlog of actual GDP from potential.
Non-economic changes mean an increase in the criminal situation in the country, an increase in stress in society, as well as provoking social and political unrest.
, according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the number of the active population.
Official statistics
Statistical observation is based on a thorough analysis of the dynamics of the indicator over the years and months. Statistical observation has confirmed official data. The basis of these data is the published information of Rosgosstat.
As of January 2019, the number of unemployed in the country amounted to about 800 thousand people. At the same time, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation predicts that the number of officially unemployed in 2019 will grow by almost 40% and reach 1.1 million Russians.
If we consider the situation in individual regions, it should be noted that in Moscow lowest unemployment rate- 1.3%, relative to Ingushetia, in which the figure was 26.2%.
Estimated unemployment rate on years allows us to say that since 2011 the indicator has become lower. So, at the beginning of 2011, this level was fixed at a value of 7.8%. In 2014 and 2015, the unemployment rate tended to rise due to massive layoffs.
Starting from the last months of 2013, in the first half of 2014, the unemployment rate stubbornly held on to one place, then a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate began until mid-summer 2014. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate began to reach 5.3%, by 2015 this level was fixed at 5.8%.
On average, the unemployment rate in Russia has been gradually decreasing since 2011. So at the beginning of 2000, the indicator was 10.6%, then by 2001 it dropped to 9%, the following years it had the following expression - 2002 - 7.9%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2004 - 7.8%, 2005 - 7.1%, 2006 - 7.1%, from 2007 to 2008 the unemployment rate fell to 6%, in 2009-2010 - the level was 8.2%, and since 2011 the level has gradually decreased.
Statistics for this indicator are presented in the following video:
Hidden unemployment and its level
With the development of an economic phenomenon that involves the preservation of the workplace for a specific person, while maintaining formal relationships with the employer, but not giving him the opportunity to actually be employed in production, there appears hidden unemployment. As a rule, it occurs in times of crisis, when the actual labor force is not a necessity.
As a rule, the hidden unemployment rate does not exceed the range of 7 to 10 million people. This indicator tends to steadily increase.
Social protection of unemployed citizens and promising areas of work
Citizens who have actually experienced such an economic phenomenon can take advantage of receiving assistance from the state emergency service, have the right to take part in certain types of work, receive material assistance in the form of unemployment benefits, and so on.
During the crisis, during the growing number of unemployed, IT programming employees are valued more than ever. It is important to note that this particular field of activity is in demand at all times, since the development of technical progress and the design of various systems are valuable not only in the vastness of the country, but throughout the world.
Developers based on Android and iOS are no less popular. Following them in popularity are specialists in the field of transport logistics, car service, middle managers in sales, cashiers and workers. Among the latter are loaders, nurses, turners and farmers, postmen. Among the professions that are becoming unclaimed, as a rule, accountants, cooks, drivers and property managers are singled out.
Reasons and prospects
Theories of the development of unemployment There are many, but they can be summarized in three main ones:
Regardless of the reason for the appearance, the very essence of unemployment is a disaster, since the country, in macroeconomic terms, bears a huge burden, both economic and social. In addition to the fact that the instability of the population of the psychological and social aspects is developing, there are problems of a political nature. After all, the population yearns for constructive decisions and action on the part of the authorities. Moreover, without having a permanent and stable source of income, a person resorts to breaking the law. This means that social tension is increasing, the crime situation is increasing, and so on. The country receives less GDP production.
WITH unemployment can only be fought in a complex by taking a variety of measures. In particular:
- Creation of institutions that will provide assistance in retraining and retraining, improvement of existing ones.
- Establishing the process of providing information to the public about vacancies.
- Implementation of a policy to prevent the development of unemployment.
The rules for calculating the unemployment rate are set out in the following video:
In accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), unemployed citizens can include persons at the age that is set to measure the economic activity of the population. These persons must meet the following conditions:
- do not have a job (occupation that generates income);
- engage in job search, i.e. apply to the state (private) employment service, use or place advertisements in the press, directly contact the administration of enterprises (employers), use personal connections or take steps to create their own business;
- be ready to start work during the survey week.
Also, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if these persons have been looking for work and are ready to start it.
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed in the relevant age group to the economically active population (of a certain age group). This indicator is calculated as a percentage.
Unemployment rate formula
The unemployment rate formula is calculated as the ratio of the share of the unemployed to the total labor force (%):
u=U/L * 100%
Here u is the unemployment rate,
U is the number of unemployed,
L is the number of employed and unemployed (labor force)
Types of unemployment
There are several types of unemployment, for each of which the calculation of the unemployment rate formula has its own characteristics:
- Structural unemployment, which is the most massive, since its presence is associated with constant changes in market demand for a product (if demand falls, then the need for specialists will decrease). The unemployment rate formula for structural unemployment looks like this:
UBstr \u003d Qstr / HR * 100%
Here UBstr is the level of structural unemployment,
Qstr - the number of structural unemployed;
- Frictional unemployment, which characterizes the unemployment of citizens who have a certain qualification. This type occurs when certain enterprises are closed, the decline in production capacity. The unemployment rate formula for this type is:
UBfr \u003d Q / HR * 100%
Here UBfr is the level of frictional unemployment,
Qfr - the number of frictional unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
- Seasonal unemployment associated with work that is seasonal. Unemployment Rate Formula for Seasonal Unemployment:
UBset = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBSec is the seasonal unemployment rate,
Qsez - the number of seasonal unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
- Cyclical unemployment associated with economic cycles that are constantly taking place in different countries. At the time of the decline in GDP, cyclical unemployment begins, which is characterized by the level of unemployed labor due to a temporary reduction in production capacity and their release from the production process. Formula for the cyclical unemployment rate:
UB cycle = Q / HR * 100%
Here UBtsik is the level of cyclical unemployment,
Qcycle is the number of cyclical unemployed;
NRV - the number of employed and unemployed (labor force).
Other unemployment indicators
In order to carry out a deeper analysis of unemployment, it is not enough to know the methods of calculation for the corresponding types of unemployment.
The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is often used. Unemployment rate formula:
UBest \u003d UB str + UB fr
Here UBest is the natural rate of unemployment,
UB str is the level of structural unemployment,
UBFR is the level of frictional unemployment.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1
Population= Labor force + Not labor force
Not labor force: children under 16; persons serving sentences in prisons; people in psychiatric hospitals and people with disabilities, people who do not want or cannot work and are not looking for work, full-time students; retired; housewives; vagabonds; people who have stopped looking for work Labor force = Employed + Unemployed
L=E+U
Cyclical unemployment associated with the rise and fall of production.
Structural unemployment caused by a mismatch between the structure of demand and supply of labor.
frictional unemployment associated with the voluntary transfer of workers from one job to another.
The frictional unemployed include:
1) dismissed from work by order of the administration;
2) resigned of their own free will;
3) awaiting reinstatement in their previous jobs;
4) those who have found a job, but have not yet started it;
5) seasonal workers (out of season);
6) people who first appeared on the labor market and have the level of professional training and qualifications required in the economy.
Actual unemployment rate
Frictional Unemployment Rate = FB / L
Structural Unemployment Rate = SAT/L
Natural Unemployment Rate = FB + SSB
Unemployment rate
Natural Unemployment Rate = Frictional Unemployment Rate + Structural Unemployment Rate
There are 146,000 unemployed in country A. The employment rate is 90%. This month, 50,000 people were fired, of which 10,000 decided not to look for work yet. In the same month, 100 thousand people were demobilized from the ranks of the country's Armed Forces. conscripts. Of these, 30,000 decided to enter higher educational institutions, 40,000 decided to find a job, and the rest decided to take a break and think about the future. How and how much has the unemployment rate changed in a given month?
Unemployment rate 10% (100 - 90).
The level of the working-age population: L = 146 / 0.1 = 1460 thousand people
The unemployed are people who are not working but looking for a job.
U1 = 50 - 10 = 40 (structural unemployment)
U2 = 40 - from among the military who decided to look for a job (frictional unemployment)
U = 40 + 40 = 80 thousand
Unemployment rate in Russia
| Year | Unemployed, thousand people | Number of economically active population, thousand people | Unemployment rate, % |
| 2000 | 7699.5 | 72770.0 | 10.6 |
| 2001 | 6423.7 | 71546.6 | 9.0 |
| 2002 | 5698.3 | 72357.1 | 7.9 |
| 2003 | 5933.5 | 72273.0 | 8.2 |
| 2004 | 5666.0 | 72984.7 | 7.8 |
| 2005 | 5242.0 | 73581.0 | 7.1 |
| 2006 | 5250.2 | 74418.9 | 7.1 |
| 2007 | 4518.6 | 75288.9 | 6.0 |
| 2008 | 4697.0 | 75700.1 | 6.2 |
| 2009 | 6283.7 | 75694.2 | 8.3 |
| 2010 | 5544.2 | 75477.9 | 7.3 |
| 2011 | 4922.4 | 75779.0 | 6.5 |
| 2012 | 4130.7 | 75676.1 | 5.5 |
| 2013 | 4137.4 | 75528.9 | 5.5 |
| 2014 | 3889.4 | 75428.4 | 5.2 |
| 2015 | 4100 | 75500 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | 4200 | 76600 | 5.5 |
| 2017 | 4000 | 72100 | 5.2 |
| 2018 |
State measures to combat unemployment
- Internship (graduates of schools, colleges and universities);
- Retraining (training);
- Vocational training (change of type of activity);
- Creating your own business (self-employment);
- Public and temporary works;
- Moving to another area for the purpose of temporary employment.
Unemployment and potential GDP
The American economist Arthur Okun formulated the law: the excess of the actual unemployment rate by 1% of its natural level leads to a lag in the volume of actual GNP from the potential (at full employment) GNP - by 2.5% (Oaken's coefficient).
GNP deficit= Real unemployment rate - natural unemployment rate
GNP Deficit = Actual Unemployment - Natural Unemployment
The real GNP in this year was V. The potential GNP was V. The actual unemployment rate was u%. Find the approximate value of the natural unemployment rate if the Okun coefficient is equal to k = 2.5.
Okun's law:(V-V")/V = -k(u-u")
Where
V* - potential GNP;
V - real GNP;
u* - natural unemployment;
u - actual unemployment;
k - Okun's coefficient.
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