Technical analysis of the MICEX index. What is technical analysis of stocks and how does it work: we study with simple examples Technical analysis of stocks MICEX

Since the beginning of 2017, there has been a tendency for the MICEX index to fall, with a slowdown in the trend in March and April, but a more active continuation in May and June. The moving average (SMA 200), after a long rise, began to slowly fall from the beginning of March, accelerating its fall in mid-May.

The ADX indicator has been actively rising 3 times over the past 6 months, all 3 times giving a sell signal. Two long periods of recovery lasted for a month, the last of which is currently ongoing. It is worth noting that the last two large rises in ADX (at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017) both lasted a month and preceded a flat trading corridor, although not for long. The MACD indicator has been declining quite evenly since the beginning of the year, but it gave a long and almost continuous buy signal in the period from mid-March to mid-May, when the trend of falling prices seriously slowed down. As of mid-June, the MACD had almost reached its lowest level in the last 12 months.

The RSI indicator remained inside the band for almost the entire 6 months, reaching the oversold level three times and never reaching the overbought level. The first depression was preceded by a temporary sharp drop in prices, the second (10 days later) was preceded by a return of prices to the values ​​​​before the first depression, the third is happening now.

The stochastic oscillator gave a significant number of false buy signals, but successfully signaled all market declines. Taking into account the adaptability of this indicator and the very noticeable change in its reaction to prices in early June (the rise of the oscillator from the trough to the middle of the band with almost zero price changes), it can be assumed that it has adjusted to a fairly uniform downward trend since the beginning of March, and its subsequent troughs will produce less false signals.

Given the extremely sharp drop in prices on June 15, the buy signals from both (already likely adapted) oscillators, and the fact that both the support line and the last Fibonacci retracement level were broken over the past few days, there is reason to assume that the most recent declines are a false signal and prices will rise in the coming days. The fact that the last two large rises in ADX lasted for a month and preceded a flat trading corridor, albeit for a short time, also speaks in the direction of rising prices. The current rise in ADX has lasted almost a month, so there is reason to expect a trading corridor in the coming weeks.

An interesting observation: all correct buy signals from the Stochastic Oscillator occurred during declines in ADX, and, conversely, all false signals occurred during increases. Since ADX has been rising since mid-May, buy signals from the oscillator should be treated with increased caution. The recommendation to treat signals with caution, and not to ignore them completely, is such because two successful buy signals from the oscillator occurred at the peak (March 13) and near peak (April 17) of ADX, which had previously risen evenly over the course of a month and 2 weeks respectively. If you combine this with the observation that all of ADX's recent strong advances have lasted for a month, the current oscillator signal may not be false.

On the other hand, taking into account the general readings of ADX, MA(200) and MACD, even if a price rise occurs, it will be short-term and, as in the last 3 months, within the framework of a falling trend. In this case, the Fibonacci retracement level will still eventually be broken, and prices will continue to fall.

Given the expectation that the long-term trend of falling prices will continue, it is recommended to play short, but not in the coming days. Instead, you should wait for a short-term rise in prices, as indicated by oscillators and the duration of ADX rises. A rise in the MICEX index should be expected below the current resistance level (~1950), which is shown on the chart, since it was determined by the peak reached before the last fall in prices.

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I recently wrote about fundamental analysis. Today we’ll talk about another type of analysis, which is always opposed to it.

is one of the investor’s important tools, allowing him to draw up his stock trading strategy.

Technical analysis consists of predicting the behavior of stock prices, which is based solely on the stock price chart, without involving other indicators (economic activity of the enterprise, market conditions, etc.).
Already from the definition it is clear that technical analysis is “not omnipotent”. There is always a risk of new factors emerging that disrupt the “natural” development of the situation, which is predicted by the schedule. However, having the techniques of technical analysis of the stock market in your arsenal is simply necessary.

Let's look at the basics.

On a “normal” day (that is, in the absence of strong factors that sharply change the situation in the stock market), the price of a stock tends to fluctuate between two specific levels. These levels are called “support” and “resistance”.

Support level – lower limit. At the support rate, it is easy to find a buyer for the shares, so no one sells them cheaper. Accordingly, resistance is the upper limit, the maximum price at which shares can be sold - no one buys more expensive.

The price of shares during the day usually fluctuates between these points; it is “hard” to break out of them for statistical reasons. If this happens, then this phenomenon is called a breakout or breakout: after this, the price may fall lower or, on the contrary, “storm” new heights at a new support level, which was previously a resistance level. (of course, the diagram is simplified).

(Therefore, an investor needs to carefully monitor resistance breakouts: if a resistance breakout occurs, this may be the beginning of an upward movement and it makes sense to quickly buy additional shares).

The concept of "moving average" is also used. The moving average is calculated as the ratio of the sum of all closing prices for each day to the number of days. There are many moving averages that are calculated and they form their own chart. Based on its configuration and especially its relationship with the price chart, one can draw conclusions about the further “behavior” of the exchange rate.

For example, it is believed that if the rate falls below its moving average, this can be regarded as a signal for a further decrease in price and the security should be sold.

The use of comparative strength in technical analysis can be of some benefit - in this case, the growth rate of a stock is compared with a stock index or other security. Quite logical: if a security is growing slower than the market as a whole, this is a reason to think about the rationality of its use.

Also, various figures and “pretzels” that write out charts can provide some assistance to the investor. Of course, to navigate this confidently, you need experience, especially since the patterns that work with one security will not necessarily work with another.

I will also add that a modern investor does not have to sweatily build charts of moving averages or painstakingly calculate the strength of stocks - a variety of programs can handle this, often integrated into the program with which stocks are traded.

Correct analysis and successful investments!

Hi all!

In today’s article, I will briefly talk about fundamental and technical analysis and give recommendations, based on my experience, in which cases it is worth using one or another approach. So, let's begin.

Technical and fundamental analysis (stock market, MICEX)

Technical analysis (technical analysis)- in simple words, it is a set of methods or tools for predicting prices in the future based on some price patterns in the past. The whole point of technical analysis is to search for patterns that will allow you to determine the best moment to enter a position and make money :) These can be various patterns, support/resistance levels, various figures, indicators, etc. This topic is quite extensive and you can talk about it for a long time. I will return to it in a separate article. Now regarding fundamental analysis.

Fundamental Analysis used to study the economic state of a company or individual industry that interests us. In other words, the main goal of this analysis is to assess the investment attractiveness of the company. That is, this type of analysis allows us to understand whether the shares of a particular company are currently undervalued or overvalued and draw conclusions whether these assets should be included in our long-term investment portfolio.

When to use one type of analysis or another?

Technical analysis can be used in absolutely any situation. The only difference is that in some styles this type of analysis may be the only one, and in others it may be an addition to fundamental analysis. For example, when I scalp, trade intraday or short-term, I do not take into account the fundamentals. All my entry points are based strictly on technical analysis. When trading in the medium term, the main method will also be technical analysis. But in this case, it is already possible to take into account fundamental indicators. Since in medium-term trading the goal of maintaining a position can be up to 3 months.

Let me give you a small example. We found an interesting stock on the market, from the point of view of any news and fundamental factors. We understand that there is strong interest in this paper from other participants and major players. There could be a lot of reasons for this. For example, the purchase of this company by another larger one. At the same time, we also understand that the fair price of this security may be much higher. And from the point of view of fundamental analysis, we are interested in this paper. Next, technology comes into the trade. We need to find an entry point with the shortest stop possible. For example, near a strong key level. Since a thoughtless purchase on strong growth without correction may not bring the result that we would like. This is one example of using two types of analysis simultaneously.

Now regarding long-term trading (investing). Here, the paper retention period can be either a year or 10-20 years. In this approach, the fundamental analysis of the company will be the fundamental factor for buying a security. Assessing a company's financial position, general economic condition, or searching for undervalued companies. But personally, when forming a long-term investment portfolio, I take into account not only the fundamental indicators of the company, but also technical ones. For example, I have an interest in a certain company in terms of fundamentals. I will not buy shares of such a company immediately, but when it is at the levels I need. For analysis, I use a timeframe no lower than weekly. Let me look at the shares of Gazprom as an example.

Even if I see potential in a given company and plan to buy it for a period of 5 years or more, I will never make a mindless purchase from current levels. I'll wait for a price that's acceptable to me. For example, approaching the lower limit of the range or a local minimum. At least that's my approach to long-term investing. There are many styles and approaches, and they will all depend on the investment goals of a particular person. Therefore, before investing for the long term, you need to study the relevant literature and draw up your investment plan based on your goals and objectives. I will definitely return to this topic and tell you some aspects of my approach to long-term investing in stocks.

I will end here. I hope this article will be useful to you. Subscribe to site news and

The Moscow Exchange Index opened down on Friday (closed at 2398.56), a rollback to 2385-2386 would be perceived as normal fluctuations with subsequent attempts to go positive. Growth targets are 2421-2423, intermediate target is 2413. The market's mood for growth suggests a positive opening on Monday.

Alrosa

Alrosa shares jumped out from under the level of 100 rubles. A moderate Positive Scenario was declared for them (target B up 102.79 from support 99.11 was fulfilled on November 29) further up target A 103.35 from 99.56 and target A 104.22 from 101.8. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are located on November 30 at 99.62

Medium-term stops for growth (the indicators turned upward on November 29) are located on November 30 at 99.18

Gazprom

A possible increase in dividends has strengthened the upward sentiment for Gazprom shares. The positive scenario has been updated to an upward target A of 209.11 from support 154. Local rollback target of 163.63 from resistance 167.36. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is now a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of weakening bearish sentiment)

Trend: rising

Short-term bullish stops (the indicators turned upward on November 27) are placed on November 30 at 155.61

Medium-term stops for growth (the indicators turned upward on November 27) are located on November 30 at 148.3

MMC Norilsk Nickel

Norilsk Nickel shares, on an upward trend, have entered the area of ​​strong relative overbought, which allows us to expect technical corrections. Possible rollback target is 12443 from resistance 12970. Global positive scenario: – (upward target A 12903 from support 11947 was fulfilled on November 29), then upward target A 13197 from 12321. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is an increase in positivity for the stock (evidence upward trend)

Trend: decline in positivity (relatively overbought)

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 2) are placed on November 30, 12076

Lukoil

Lukoil shares turned upward from under 4,600 rubles. Possible growth target A 4941 from support 4659. (Upward target 4764 from 4655.5 fulfilled on November 29). In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in positivity for the stock (evidence of a weakening upward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 27) are placed on November 30 4675

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 13) are placed on November 30 4820

Moscow Exchange

Shares of the Moscow Exchange again jumped out from under 90 rubles. The local target up 90.74 from support 89.34 was fulfilled on November 29. A negative scenario was previously stated. – Target A is down 86.14 from resistance 94, along the way down 87.79 from 91.94. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 28) are located on November 30 at 89.22

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are on November 30 at 93.32

MTS

MTS shares tried to turn upward from under 250 rubles. Possible growth target is 261.75 from support 248.2. Previously, the failure of MTS shares after a report announcing the reservation of 55.8 billion rubles. under possible legal costs led to the emergence of an Aggressive negative scenario: downward target A 179.75 from resistance 265.95, locally downward target 249.5 from 254.3. In the medium term (for a week or more), the stock is now experiencing a decline in negativity (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decreasing

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are on November 30 at 245.95

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are located on November 30 at 266.95

Rosneft

Rosneft shares rebounded from relative oversold conditions. The further growth target is locally up 422.8 from support 412.5. Previously, the Negative scenario stated a downward target of 380.6 from resistance 462.7 (risk assessment of the third wave of decline), along with a downward target of 407.2 from 424.6 (the downward target of 416.45 from 425.85 was fulfilled on November 29). Please note that the elasticity of the stock allows us to highlight the long-term target A up 558.65 from the support 371.4. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is an increase in negativity for the stock (evidence of a downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 26) are on November 30 413.55

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 29) are on November 30 at 397.75

Sberbank vol.

Sberbank shares came under active pressure from the level of 200 rubles, but tried to turn upward from under 190 rubles. Possible growth target is 202.18 from support 191.1. The negative scenario was complemented by a downward target of 167.11 from resistance of 197.79. (the rebound target of 195.34 from support 185.33 was fulfilled on April 29). “Archive” part of the negative script from April 9. - second phase - downward target 128.4 from resistance 255.3.. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is still an increase in positivity for the stock (evidence of an upward trend).

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up on November 29) are on November 30 at 187.31

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 20) are located on November 30 at 200.97

Severstal

Severstal shares are trading around 1000 rubles. Local target is up 1009.9 from support 996.1. (The rebound target of 1005.3 from support 985.5 was fulfilled on November 29) Negative scenario target A is down 972.4 from resistance 1030.4, further down target A is 953.4 from 1008.4, along the way down 983.4 from 1008.8 . In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: decline in negativity

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned up again on November 29) are located on November 30 at 988

Medium-term stops for decline (indicators turned down on November 19) are located on November 30 at 1027.8

FGC UES

For the FGC UES share, a double (triple) bottom formation has been formed around 0.148. A positive scenario has been declared, target B is up 0.16081 from support 0.15274, along the way up 0.15789 from 0.1553. This is a challenge to the ambitious negative scenario - target B(a) down 0.12875 from resistance. 0.15915, locally down 0.15499 from 0.159. Moderate targets up 0.15572 from 0.1517 and 0.15562 from 0.15521. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend)

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 27) are placed on November 30 at 0.15392

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 28) are placed on November 30, 15068

Rosseti vol.

Rosseti report for 9 months of 2018. reinforced the positive scenario, which was already triggered by the possibility of an additional issue. The upward target of 0.8719 from support 0.7425, 0.8288 from 0.677, 0.7898 from 0.7179 led the stock into a state of relative overbought, from where it corrected.. The negative scenario (from February 15, 2018) remains - target B(a ) down 0.6431 from the resistor. 9013 and is supported by a target of 0.6565 from the resistance of 0.848. Locally downward target is 0.7604 from 0.7769. In the medium term (for a week or more), there is a decline in negativity for the stock (evidence of a weakening downward trend).

Trend: rising

Short-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 22) are placed on November 30 at 0.732

Medium-term stops for growth (indicators turned upward on November 28) are placed on November 30 at 0.7001

Brokerage Services Department, VTB Bank (PJSC)

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