El Niño current. Hydrology

Can you imagine such a picture in the underground passage of your city?
But in vain. In our life everything is possible, and even more!
Temperatures are rising, the climate is changing, rivers are overflowing their banks, water levels in the world's oceans are rising, and scammers are skimming the cream off people's fears. Global warming and a global example of this is the premiere of the film "". What is the connection with cards, you might think?
And here she is!

Recent sea level data from NASA (using the Jason-2 oceanography satellite) show that large-scale, persistent weakening of winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October produced a strong, eastward-moving warm water wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as an area of ​​more high level sea, compared to normal and warmer sea surface temperatures.
The image was created using data collected by the US/European satellite during a 10-day period spanning late October and early November. The picture shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that is approximately 10 to 18 centimeters above normal. These areas contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where more low level water (blue and purple areas) between 8 - 15 centimeters below normal. Along the equator, red and white colors represent areas where sea ​​temperatures surfaces one to two degrees Celsius above normal.

These are many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years).

Signs of El Niño are as follows:
Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
Warm water spreads from the western part Pacific Ocean to the east. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.
As El Niño's warm waters fuel storms, it creates increased rainfall in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The West of the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered big amount snow and ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Wedell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.
IN North America Winters are generally warmer than normal in the Midwest and Canada, while central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are getting wetter. The Pacific Northwest states, in other words, dry out during El Niño.
Based on this data, I can write new script for a smashing blockbuster. As usual: apocalypse, catastrophe, panic... El Niño 2029 or El Niño 2033. Nowadays it’s fashionable to invent everything with numbers. Or, perhaps simply.
El Nin o-o

Phenomenon La Nina ("girl" in Spanish)) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in water surface temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the reverse of El Nino ("boy"), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate throughout to the globe, causing droughts in some regions, hurricanes and heavy rains in others.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño-La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August, with weak to moderate La Niña observed from October to date.

"Mathematical model forecasts and their expert interpretation indicate that La Niña is close to maximum strength and is likely to begin to slowly weaken in the coming months. However, current methods cannot forecast beyond May, so it is unclear what the situation will be will develop in the Pacific Ocean - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral situation,” the report says.

Scientists note that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. Models predict that temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will approach neutral levels between March and May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in cloud cover and increased trade winds. The decrease in pressure led to heavy rain in Australia, Indonesia and Southeast Asia. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Niña that is responsible for heavy rains in the south and drought in the east. equatorial Africa, as well as for the drought situation in central southwest Asia and South America.

El Niño(Spanish) El Niño— Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation(English) El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation, ENSO ) is a fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, which has a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense El Niño — phase of the Southern Oscillation, in which area heated at surface waters shifts to the east. At the same time, trade winds weaken or stop altogether, and upwelling slows down in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña(Spanish) La Nina— Baby, Girl). The characteristic oscillation time is from 3 to 8 years, but the strength and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. Thus, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, while, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 this phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly expressed. El Niño 1997-1998 was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection of the Southern Oscillation with global climate change spread. Since the early 1980s, El Niño also occurred in 1986–1987 and 2002–2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the cold Peruvian Current, which carries water from the south. Where the current turns to the west, along the equator, cold and plankton-rich waters rise from deep depressions, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The cold current itself determines the aridity of the climate in this part of Peru, forming deserts. Trade winds drive the heated surface layer of water into the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is heated to depths of 100-200 m. The Walker atmospheric circulation, manifested in the form of trade winds, coupled with low blood pressure over the Indonesian region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part. And the water temperature here reaches 29 - 30 °C versus 22 - 24 °C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds are weakening, the TTB is spreading, and water temperatures are rising across a vast area of ​​the Pacific Ocean. In the region of Peru, the cold current is replaced by a warm water mass moving from the west to the coast of Peru, upwelling weakens, fish die without food, and westerly winds bring moist air masses and rainfall to the deserts, even causing floods. The onset of El Niño reduces the activity of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia were occurring at the same time. Norman Lockyer also pointed out the same thing in 1904. The connection between the warm northerly current off the coast of Peru and floods in that country was reported in 1895 by Peset and Eguiguren. The phenomena of the Southern Oscillation were first described in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the terms Southern Oscillation, El Niño and La Niña, and examined the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which now received his name. For a long time, almost no attention was paid to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only towards the end of the 20th century. The connection between El Niño and the planet’s climate has been clarified.

El Niño 1997 (TOPEX)

Quantitative description

Currently, for a quantitative description of the phenomena, El Niño and La Niña are defined as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean lasting at least 5 months, expressed in a deviation of water temperature by 0.5 °C higher (El Niño) or lower (La Niña) side.

First signs of El Niño:

1. Increase in air pressure above Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. A drop in pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.
3. Weakening of the trade winds in the South Pacific until they cease and the wind direction changes to the westerly.
4. Warm air mass in Peru, rain in the Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru by 0.5 °C is considered only a condition for the occurrence of El Niño. Typically, such an anomaly can exist for several weeks and then disappear safely. But only five-month anomaly classified as an El Niño event, can cause significant damage to the region’s economy due to a drop in fish catches.

Also used to describe El Niño Southern Oscillation Index(English) Southern Oscillation Index, SOI ). It is calculated as the difference in pressure over Tahiti and over Darwin (Australia). Negative values index indicate about the El Niño phase, and positive ones - about La Niña .

The influence of El Niño on the climate of various regions

In South America, the El Niño effect is most pronounced. This phenomenon usually causes warm and very humid summer periods(December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador. When El Niño is strong, it causes severe flooding. This, for example, happened in January 2011. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than usual periods, but mainly in the spring and early summer. Central Chile experiences mild winters with plenty of rain, while Peru and Bolivia occasionally experience unusual winter snowfalls for the region. Drier and warmer weather is observed in the Amazon, Colombia and Central America. Humidity is falling in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather occurs in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania. In Antarctica, the western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice. At the same time, the pressure increases and becomes warmer. In North America, winters generally become warmer in the Midwest and Canada. Central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are becoming wetter, while the Pacific Northwest states are becoming drier. During La Niña, on the other hand, the Midwest becomes drier. El Niño also leads to reduced Atlantic hurricane activity. Eastern Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experiences long rainy seasons from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

An El Niño-like effect is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer and water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. Moreover, there is a connection between this circulation and El Niño.

Impact of El Niño on health and society

El Niño causes extreme weather conditions associated with cycles in the incidence of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever. Malaria cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There has been an association with outbreaks of Australian encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis - MVE) occurring in south-eastern Australia following heavy rainfall and flooding caused by La Niña. A notable example is the severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever that occurred due to El Niño following extreme rainfall events in northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclical nature of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate is influenced by El Niño. A study of data from 1950 to 2004 found that El Niño was associated with 21% of all civil conflicts during that period. At the same time, the risk of civil war in El Niño years it is twice as high as in La Niña years. It is likely that the connection between climate and military action is mediated by crop failures, which often occur in hot years.

The La Niña phenomenon is an anomalous cooling of the surface in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean in winter. As Japanese meteorologists reported, the lowest temperatures were recorded in mid-February, but by early March the indicators had returned to normal levels. According to weather forecasters, this is a sign of the imminent final approach to the fall - at least in Japan, located in the Pacific Ocean. Experts are currently studying the possibility of an opposite phenomenon, El Niño, occurring in the coming summer, which is characterized by an anomalous increase in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

La Niña typically results in heavy rainfall and tropical storms on the west coast of South America, south-east Asia and eastern equatorial Africa. Nevertheless, this phenomenon can influence the weather on a global scale. In particular, this winter the phenomenon became one of the factors that led to severe cold in Europe, ITAR-TASS reports.

http://news.rambler.ru/13104180/33618609/

The climate phenomenon La Niña, associated with a drop in water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and influencing weather patterns across almost the entire globe, has disappeared and is not likely to return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

The La Nina phenomenon (La Nina, "the girl" in Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in surface water temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the opposite of El Niño (El Nino, “the boy”), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño–La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August and has experienced weak to moderate La Niña from October to date. By early April, La Niña had completely disappeared, and neutral conditions are still observed in the equatorial Pacific, experts write.

“(Analysis of modeling results) suggests that La Niña is unlikely to return this year, while the probabilities of remaining neutral and El Niño occurring in the second half of the year are approximately equal,” the WMO said.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate across the globe, causing droughts in some regions and hurricanes and heavy rainfall in others.
Message from 05/17/2012

The La Niña climate phenomenon that occurred in 2011 was so strong that it ultimately caused global sea levels to drop by as much as 5 mm. With the advent of La Niña, there was a shift in Pacific surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns around the world, as terrestrial moisture began to leave the ocean and be directed to land in the form of rain in Australia, northern South America, and Southeast Asia .

The alternating dominance of the warm oceanic phase of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and the cold phase, La Niña, can change global sea levels so dramatically, but satellite data inexorably indicates that global levels have The waters still rise to a height of about 3 mm.

As soon as El Niño arrives, the rise in water levels begins to occur faster, but with a change in phases almost every five years, a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a particular phase also depends on other factors and clearly reflects the general climate change towards its harshness. Many scientists around the world are studying both phases of the southern oscillation, as they contain many clues to what is happening on Earth and what awaits it.

A moderate to strong La Niña atmospheric phenomenon will continue in the tropical Pacific until April 2011. This is according to an El Niño/La Niña advisory issued on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As the document highlights, all model-based forecasts predict a continuation or possible intensification of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

La Niña, which this year formed in June-July, replacing the El Niño phenomenon that ended in April, is characterized by unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupts normal routines. tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation. El Niño is exactly the opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusual high temperatures waters in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressed in floods, storms, droughts, increases or, conversely, decreases in temperatures. Typically, La Niña results in heavy winter rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and severe droughts in Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and eastern equatorial Africa.

La Niña, which may increase in intensity and continue until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

The latest DoD report on El Niño and La Niña phenomena states that the current La Niña event will peak later this year, but the intensity will be less than it was in the second half of 2010. Due to its uncertainty, the MoD invites the countries of the Pacific Ocean basin to closely monitor its development and promptly report possible droughts and floods due to it.

The La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon of an anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of the waters in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which gives rise to a global climate anomaly. The previous La Niña event resulted in spring drought along the western Pacific coast, including China.

Rains, landslides, floods, drought, smog, monsoon rains, countless casualties, multi-billion dollar damage... The name of the destroyer is known: in melodic Spanish it sounds almost tender - El Niño (baby, little boy). This is what Peruvian fishermen call the warm current that appears off the coast of South America during the Christmas season, which increases the catch. True, sometimes instead of the long-awaited warming, a sharp cooling suddenly occurs. And then the current is called La Niña (girl).

The first mention of the term “El Niño” dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo made a report about this warm northern current at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima. The name "El Niño" is given to the current because it is most noticeable during the Christmas period. However, even then the phenomenon was interesting only because of its biological impact on the efficiency of the fertilizer industry.

For most of the twentieth century, El Niño was considered a large, but still local phenomenon.

The Great El Niño of 1982-1983 led to a sharp rise in the interest of the scientific community in this phenomenon.

The 1997-1998 El Niño far exceeded the one in 1982 in the number of deaths and destruction it caused and was the most violent of the last century. The disaster was so strong that at least 4,000 people died. Global damage was estimated at more than $20 billion.

IN last years in print and media mass media contained many alarming messages about weather anomalies that covered almost all continents of the Earth. At the same time, the unpredictable El Niño phenomenon, which brings heat to the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, was called the main culprit of all climatic and social troubles. Moreover, some scientists viewed this phenomenon as a harbinger of even more radical climate change.

What data does science currently have about the mysterious El Niño current?

The El Niño phenomenon consists of a sharp increase in temperature (by 5-9 °C) of the surface layer of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean (in the tropical and central parts) over an area of ​​about 10 million square meters. km.

The processes of formation of the strongest warm current in the ocean in our century presumably look as follows. Under normal weather conditions, when the El Niño phase has not yet set in, warm surface waters of the ocean are transported and retained by easterly winds - trade winds in the western zone of the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool(TTB). The depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters. The formation of such a huge heat reservoir is the main necessary condition for the transition to the El Niño regime. Moreover, as a result of the surge of water, the ocean level off the coast of Indonesia is half a meter higher than the coast of South America. At the same time, the water surface temperature in the west in the tropical zone averages 29-30 °C, and in the east 22-24 °C. A slight cooling of the surface in the east is the result of upwelling, i.e., the rise of deep cold waters to the surface of the ocean when water is sucked in by trade winds. At the same time, the largest region of heat and stationary unstable equilibrium in the ocean-atmosphere system is formed above the TTB in the atmosphere (when all forces are balanced and the TTB is motionless).

For still unknown reasons, at intervals of 3-7 years, the trade winds weaken, the balance is upset, and the warm waters of the western basin rush east, creating one of the strongest warm currents in the World Ocean. Over a vast area in the eastern Pacific Ocean, there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean. This is the onset of the El Niño phase. Its beginning is marked by a long onslaught of squally westerly winds. They replace the usual weak trade winds over warm western part Pacific Ocean and prevent cold deep waters from rising to the surface. As a result, upwelling is blocked.

Although the processes themselves that develop during the El Niño phase are regional, their consequences are nonetheless global. El Niño is usually accompanied by environmental disasters: droughts, fires, heavy rains, causing flooding of vast areas of densely populated areas, which leads to the death of people and the destruction of livestock and crops in different regions of the Earth. El Niño has a significant impact on the global economy. According to American experts, in 1982-1983, economic damage from the consequences of El Niño amounted to $13 billion, and according to estimates from the world's leading insurance company Munich Re, damage from natural disasters in the first half of 1998 is estimated at $24 billion.

The warm western basin usually enters an opposite phase a year after an El Niño, when the eastern Pacific cools. Phases of warming and cooling alternate with a normal state, when heat accumulates in the western basin (WBT) and the state of stationary unstable equilibrium is restored.

According to many experts, the main cause of the ongoing cataclysms is global warming as a result of the “greenhouse effect” due to the technogenic development of the Earth and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons).

Meteorological data on the temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, collected over the past hundred years, show that the climate on Earth has warmed by 0.5-0.6 °C. The steady increase in temperature was disrupted by a short-term cold spell in 1940-1970, after which warming resumed.

Although the increase in temperature is consistent with the greenhouse effect hypothesis, there are other factors that influence warming (volcanic eruptions, ocean currents, etc.). It will be possible to establish the unambiguous cause of warming after the receipt of new data in the next 10-15 years. All models predict that warming will increase significantly in the coming decades. From this we can conclude that the frequency of the El Niño phenomenon and its intensity will increase.

Climate variations over the period of 3-7 years are determined by changes in vertical circulation in the ocean and atmosphere and ocean surface temperature. In other words, they change the intensity of heat and mass transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ocean and atmosphere are open, nonequilibrium, nonlinear systems, between which there is a constant exchange of heat and moisture.

By the way, such systems are characterized by the self-organization of such formidable structures as tropical cyclones, which transport energy and moisture received from the ocean over long distances.

An assessment of the energy interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere allows us to come to the conclusion that the energy of El Niño can lead to disturbances in the entire atmosphere of the Earth, which leads to environmental disasters that have occurred in recent years.

In the future, as the famous Canadian scientist and climate change specialist Henry Hincheveld showed, “society needs to abandon the idea that climate is something unchanging. It is fluid, change will continue, and humanity needs to develop an infrastructure that allows it to be prepared to face the unexpected.”

The natural phenomenon El Niño, which took place in 1997-1998, had no equal in scale in the entire history of observations. What is this mysterious phenomenon that has caused so much noise and attracted close attention from the media?

In scientific terms, El Niño is a complex of interdependent changes in thermobaric and chemical parameters of the ocean and atmosphere, taking on the character natural Disasters. According to reference literature, it is a warm current that sometimes occurs for unknown reasons off the coast of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Translated from Spanish, "El Niño" means "baby". Peruvian fishermen gave it this name because warming waters and associated mass fish kills usually occur at the end of December and coincide with Christmas. Our magazine already wrote about this phenomenon in No. 1 in 1993, but since that time researchers have accumulated a lot of new information.

NORMAL SITUATION

To understand the anomalous nature of the phenomenon, let us first consider the usual (standard) climate situation off the South American coast of the Pacific Ocean. It is quite peculiar and is determined by the Peruvian Current, which carries cold waters from Antarctica along the western coast of South America to the Galapagos Islands lying on the equator. Usually the trade winds blowing here from the Atlantic, crossing the high-mountain barrier of the Andes, leave moisture on their eastern slopes. And therefore the western coast of South America is a dry rocky desert, where rain is extremely rare - sometimes it does not fall for years. When the trade winds collect so much moisture that they carry it to the western shores of the Pacific Ocean, they form here the predominant westerly direction of surface currents, causing a surge of water off the coast. It is unloaded by the counter-trade Cromwell Current in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which covers a 400-kilometer strip here and, at depths of 50-300 m, transports huge masses of water back to the east.

The attention of specialists is attracted by the colossal biological productivity of coastal Peruvian-Chilean waters. Here, in a small space, constituting a fraction of a percent of the entire water area of ​​the World Ocean, the annual production of fish (mainly anchovy) exceeds 20% of the global total. Its abundance attracts huge flocks of fish-eating birds - cormorants, gannets, pelicans. And in areas where they accumulate, colossal masses of guano (bird droppings) - a valuable nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer - are concentrated; its deposits, ranging in thickness from 50 to 100 m, became the object of industrial development and export.

CATASTROPHE

During El Niño years, the situation changes dramatically. First, the water temperature rises by several degrees and mass death or departure of fish from this water area begins, and as a result, birds disappear. Then the eastern Pacific falls Atmosphere pressure, clouds appear above it, the trade winds subside, and air currents over the entire equatorial zone of the ocean change direction. Now they are moving from west to east, carrying moisture from the Pacific region and dumping it on the Peruvian-Chilean coast.

Events are developing especially catastrophically at the foot of the Andes, which now block the path of the western winds and receive all their moisture onto their slopes. As a result, floods, mudflows, and floods are raging in a narrow strip of rocky coastal deserts on the western coast (at the same time, the territories of the Western Pacific region are suffering from terrible drought: they are burning rainforests in Indonesia, New Guinea, crop yields in Australia are falling sharply). To top it all off, so-called “red tides” are developing from the Chilean coast to California, caused by the rapid growth of microscopic algae.

So, the chain of catastrophic events begins with a noticeable warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which has recently been successfully used to predict El Niño. A network of buoy stations has been installed in this water area; with their help, the temperature of ocean water is constantly measured, and the data obtained is promptly transmitted via satellites to research centers. As a result, it was possible to warn in advance about the onset of the most powerful El Niño known to date - in 1997-98.

At the same time, the reason for the heating of ocean water, and therefore the occurrence of El Niño itself, is still not completely clear. Oceanographers explain the appearance of warm water south of the equator by a change in the direction of the prevailing winds, while meteorologists consider the change in winds to be a consequence of heating the water. Thus, a kind of vicious circle is created.

To get closer to understanding the genesis of El Niño, let us pay attention to a number of circumstances that are usually overlooked by climate specialists.

EL NINO DEGASION SCENARIO

For geologists, the following fact is absolutely obvious: El Niño is developing over one of the most geologically active areas of the world rift system - the East Pacific Rise, where maximum speed spreading (spreading of the ocean floor) reaches 12-15 cm/year. In the axial zone of this underwater ridge, a very high heat flow from the earth’s interior is noted, manifestations of modern basaltic volcanism are known here, and outcrops have been discovered thermal waters and traces of the intensive process of modern ore formation in the form of numerous black and white “smokers”.

In the water area between 20 and 35 south. w. Nine hydrogen jets were recorded at the bottom - the release of this gas from the bowels of the earth. In 1994, an international expedition discovered the world's most powerful hydrothermal system here. In its gas emanations, the 3 He/4 He isotope ratios turned out to be abnormally high, which means that the source of degassing is located at great depths.

A similar situation is typical for other “hot spots” on the planet - Iceland, Hawaii, and the Red Sea. There, at the bottom there are powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing and above them, most often in the Northern Hemisphere, the ozone layer is destroyed
, which gives grounds to apply the model I created for the destruction of the ozone layer by hydrogen and methane flows to El Niño.

This is roughly how this process begins and develops. Hydrogen, released from the ocean floor from the rift valley of the East Pacific Rise (its sources were instrumentally discovered there) and reaching the surface, reacts with oxygen. As a result, heat is generated, which begins to warm up the water. The conditions here are very favorable for oxidative reactions: the surface layer of water is enriched with oxygen during wave interaction with the atmosphere.

However, the question arises: can hydrogen coming from the bottom reach the ocean surface in noticeable quantities? A positive answer was given by the results of American researchers who discovered twice the content of this gas in the air over the Gulf of California, compared to the background level. But here at the bottom there are hydrogen-methane sources with a total flow rate of 1.6 x 10 8 m 3 /year.

Hydrogen, rising from the depths of water into the stratosphere, forms an ozone hole into which ultraviolet and infrared solar radiation “falls”. Falling onto the surface of the ocean, it intensifies the heating of its upper layer that has begun (due to the oxidation of hydrogen). Most likely, it is the additional energy of the Sun that is the main and determining factor in this process. The role of oxidative reactions in heating is more problematic. This could not be discussed if it were not for the significant (from 36 to 32.7% o) desalination of ocean water that occurs simultaneously with it. The latter is probably accomplished by the very addition of water that is formed during the oxidation of hydrogen.

Due to the heating of the surface layer of the ocean, the solubility of CO 2 in it decreases, and it is released into the atmosphere. For example, during the El Niño of 1982-83. An additional 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide entered the air. The evaporation of water also increases, and over eastern part Clouds appear in the Pacific Ocean. Both water vapor and CO 2 are greenhouse gases; they absorb thermal radiation and become an excellent accumulator of additional energy coming through the ozone hole.

Gradually the process is gaining momentum. Anomalous heating of the air leads to a decrease in pressure, and a cyclonic region forms over the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. It is this that breaks the standard trade wind pattern of atmospheric dynamics in the area and “sucks” air from the western part of the Pacific Ocean. Following the subsidence of the trade winds, the surge of water off the Peruvian-Chilean coast decreases and the equatorial Cromwell countercurrent ceases to operate. Strong heating of the water leads to the formation of typhoons, which is very rare in normal years (due to the cooling influence of the Peruvian Current). From 1980 to 1989, ten typhoons occurred here, seven of them in 1982-83, when El Niño raged.

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY

Why is biological productivity so high off the west coast of South America? According to experts, it is the same as in the abundantly “fertilized” fish ponds of Asia, and 50 thousand times higher (!) than in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, if calculated by the number of fish caught. Traditionally, this phenomenon is explained by upwelling - a wind-driven movement of warm water from the shore, forcing cold water enriched with nutritional components, mainly nitrogen and phosphorus, to rise from the depths. During El Niño years, when the wind changes direction, upwelling is interrupted, and therefore, the flow of nutrient water stops. As a result, fish and birds die or migrate due to starvation.

All this resembles a perpetual motion machine: the abundance of life in surface waters is explained by the supply from below nutrients, and their excess below is an abundance of life above, for dying organic matter settles to the bottom. However, what is primary here, what gives impetus to such a cycle? Why does it not dry up, although, judging by the power of the guano deposits, it has been active for millennia?

The mechanism of wind upwelling itself is not very clear. The associated rise in deep water is usually determined by measuring its temperature on profiles of different levels oriented perpendicularly coastline. Isotherms are then constructed that show the same low temperatures near the coast and at great depths away from it. And in the end they conclude that cold waters are rising. But it is known: the low temperature near the coast is caused by the Peruvian Current, so the described method for determining the rise of deep waters is hardly correct. Finally, another ambiguity: the profiles mentioned are built across the coastline, and the prevailing winds here blow along it.

I am by no means going to overthrow the concept of wind upwelling - it is based on an understandable physical phenomenon and has a right to life. However, upon closer acquaintance with it in this area of ​​the ocean, all of the listed problems inevitably arise. Therefore, I propose a different explanation for the anomalous biological productivity off the western coast of South America: it is again determined by the degassing of the earth’s interior.

In fact, not the entire Peruvian-Chilean coastal strip is equally productive, as it should be under the influence of climatic upwelling. There are two separate “spots” here - northern and southern, and their position is controlled by tectonic factors. The first is located above a powerful fault extending from the ocean to the continent south of the Mendana fault (6-8 o S) and parallel to it. The second spot, somewhat smaller in size, is located just north of the Nazca Ridge (13-14 S latitude). All of these oblique (diagonal) geological structures running from the East Pacific Rise towards South America are essentially degassing zones; through them, a huge number of different chemical compounds flow from the earth’s interior to the bottom and into the water column. Among them there is, of course, vital important elements- nitrogen, phosphorus, manganese, and enough microelements. In the thickness of the coastal Peruvian-Ecuadorian waters, the oxygen content is the lowest in the entire World Ocean, since the main volume here is made up of reduced gases - methane, hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen, ammonia. But the thin surface layer (20-30 m) is abnormally rich in oxygen due to the low temperature of the water brought here from Antarctica by the Peruvian Current. In this layer above fault zones - sources of endogenous nutrients - unique conditions for the development of life are created.

However, there is an area in the World Ocean that is not inferior in bioproductivity to the Peruvian one, and perhaps even superior to it - off the western coast South Africa. It is also considered a wind upwelling zone. But the position of the most productive area here (Walvis Bay) is again controlled by tectonic factors: it is located above a powerful fault zone running from the Atlantic Ocean to the African continent somewhat north of the South Tropic. And the cold, oxygen-rich Benguela Current runs along the coast from Antarctica.

The region of the Southern Kuril Islands, where the cold current passes over the submeridional marginal ocean fault Jonah, is also distinguished by its colossal fish productivity. At the height of the saury season, literally the entire Far Eastern fishing fleet of Russia gathers in a small water area of ​​the South Kuril Strait. It is appropriate here to recall Kuril Lake in Southern Kamchatka, where one of the largest spawning grounds of sockeye salmon (a type of Far Eastern salmon) is located in our country. The reason for the very high biological productivity of the lake, according to experts, is the natural “fertilization” of its water with volcanic emanations (it is located between two volcanoes - Ilyinsky and Kambalny).

However, let's return to El Niño. During the period when degassing intensifies off the coast of South America, the thin, oxygenated and teeming with life surface layer of water is blown through with methane and hydrogen, oxygen disappears, and the mass death of all living things begins: from the bottom of the sea, trawls lift a huge number of bones of large fish, onto Seals are dying on the Galapagos Islands. However, it is unlikely that the fauna is dying due to a decrease in ocean bioproductivity, as the traditional version says. She's most likely poisoned poisonous gases rising from the bottom. After all, death comes suddenly and overtakes the entire marine community - from phytoplankton to vertebrates. Only birds die from hunger, and even then mostly chicks - adults simply leave the danger zone.

"RED TIDES"

However, after the mass disappearance of the biota, the amazing riot of life off the western coast of South America does not stop. In oxygen-deprived waters blown with toxic gases, single-celled algae - dinoflagellates - begin to rapidly develop. This phenomenon is known as "red tide" and is so named because only intensely colored algae thrive in such conditions. Their color is a kind of protection from solar ultraviolet radiation, acquired back in the Proterozoic (over 2 billion years ago), when there was no ozone layer and the surface of reservoirs was subjected to intense ultraviolet irradiation. So during “red tides” the ocean seems to return to its “pre-oxygen” past. Due to the abundance of microscopic algae, some marine organisms that usually act as water filters, such as oysters, become poisonous at this time and their consumption can lead to severe poisoning.

Within the framework of the gas-geochemical model I developed for the anomalous bioproductivity of local areas of the ocean and the periodically rapid death of biota in it, other phenomena are also explained: the massive accumulation of fossil fauna in ancient shales of Germany or phosphorites of the Moscow region, overflowing with the remains of fish bones and cephalopod shells.

MODEL CONFIRMED

I will give some facts indicating the reality of the El Niño degassing scenario.

During the years of its manifestation, the seismic activity of the East Pacific Rise sharply increases - this was the conclusion made by the American researcher D. Walker, having analyzed the relevant observations from 1964 to 1992 in the area of ​​​​this underwater ridge between 20 and 40 degrees. w. But, as has long been established, seismic events are often accompanied by increased degassing of the earth’s interior. The model I developed is also supported by the fact that the waters off the western coast of South America literally boil with the release of gases during El Niño years. The hulls of ships are covered with black spots (the phenomenon is called “El Pintor”, translated from Spanish as “the painter”), and the foul smell of hydrogen sulfide spreads over large areas.

In the African Gulf of Walvis Bay (mentioned above as an area of ​​anomalous bioproductivity), environmental crises also periodically arise, following the same scenario as off the coast of South America. Gas emissions begin in this bay, which leads to mass death fish, then “red tides” develop here, and the smell of hydrogen sulfide on land can be felt even 40 miles from the coast. All this is traditionally associated with the abundant release of hydrogen sulfide, but its formation is explained by the decomposition of organic residues into seabed. Although it is much more logical to consider hydrogen sulfide as a common component of deep emanations - after all, it comes out here only above the fault zone. The penetration of gas far onto land is also easier to explain by its arrival from the same fault, tracing from the ocean to the interior of the continent.

It is important to note the following: when deep gases enter ocean water, they are separated due to sharply different (by several orders of magnitude) solubility. For hydrogen and helium it is 0.0181 and 0.0138 cm 3 in 1 cm 3 of water (at temperatures up to 20 C and a pressure of 0.1 MPa), and for hydrogen sulfide and ammonia it is incomparably greater: 2.6 and 700 cm, respectively 3 in 1 cm 3 . That is why the water above the degassing zones is greatly enriched with these gases.

A strong argument in favor of the El Niño degassing scenario is a map of the average monthly ozone deficiency over the equatorial region of the planet, compiled at the Central Aerological Observatory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia using satellite data. It clearly shows a powerful ozone anomaly over the axial part of the East Pacific Rise slightly south of the equator. I note that by the time the map was published, I had published a qualitative model explaining the possibility of destruction of the ozone layer above this zone. By the way, this is not the first time that my forecasts of the possible occurrence of ozone anomalies have been confirmed by field observations.

LA NINA

This is the name of the final phase of El Niño - a sharp cooling of water in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, when for a long period its temperature drops several degrees below normal. A natural explanation for this is the simultaneous destruction of the ozone layer both over the equator and over Antarctica. But if in the first case it causes heating of the water (El Niño), then in the second it causes a strong melting of ice in Antarctica. The latter increases the influx cold water into the Antarctic waters. As a result, the temperature gradient between the equatorial and southern parts of the Pacific Ocean sharply increases, and this leads to an intensification of the cold Peruvian Current, which cools the equatorial waters after the weakening of degassing and restoration of the ozone layer.

THE RIGITAL CAUSE IS IN SPACE

First, I would like to say a few “justifying” words about El Niño. The media, to put it mildly, are not entirely right when they accuse him of causing disasters such as floods in South Korea or unprecedented frosts in Europe. After all, deep degassing can simultaneously increase in many areas of the planet, which leads there to the destruction of the ozonosphere and the appearance of anomalous natural phenomena, which have already been mentioned. For example, the heating of water that precedes the occurrence of El Niño occurs under ozone anomalies not only in the Pacific, but also in other oceans.

As for the intensification of deep degassing, it is determined, in my opinion, by cosmic factors, mainly by the gravitational effect on the liquid core of the Earth, where the main planetary reserves of hydrogen are contained. An important role in this case is probably played by the relative position of the planets and, first of all, interactions in the Earth - Moon - Sun system. G.I. Voitov and his colleagues from the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth named after. O. Yu. Schmidt of the Russian Academy of Sciences established long ago: degassing of the subsoil noticeably increases during periods close to the full moon and new moon. It is also influenced by the position of the Earth in its circumsolar orbit and by changes in its rotation speed. The complex combination of all these external factors with processes in the depths of the planet (for example, the crystallization of its inner core) determines the pulses of increased planetary degassing, and hence the El Niño phenomenon. Its 2-7-year quasi-periodicity was revealed by domestic researcher N. S. Sidorenko (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia), having analyzed a continuous series of atmospheric pressure differences between the stations of Tahiti (on the island of the same name in the Pacific Ocean) and Darwin (northern coast of Australia) over a long period - since 1866 to the present time.

Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences V. L. SYVOROTKIN, Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosova

The first time I heard the word “El Niño” was in the United States in 1998. At that time it a natural phenomenon was well known to Americans, but almost unknown in our country. And it’s not surprising, because El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America and greatly influences the weather in the southern states of the United States. El Niño(translated from Spanish El Niño- baby, boy) in the terminology of climatologists - one of the phases of the so-called Southern Oscillation, i.e. fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, during which the area of ​​heated surface water shifts to the east. (For reference: the opposite phase of oscillation - the displacement of surface waters to the west - is called La Niña (La Nina- baby, girl)). The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs periodically in the ocean, greatly affects the climate of the entire planet. One of the largest El Niño events occurred in 1997-1998. It was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection of the Southern Oscillation with global climate change spread. According to experts, the warming phenomenon El Niño is one of the main driving forces of natural variability in our climate.

In 2015 The World Meteorological Organization reported that the emerging ahead of schedule and dubbed the "Bruce Lee" El Niño could be one of the strongest since 1950. Its appearance was expected last year, based on data on rising air temperatures, but these models did not materialize, and El Niño did not manifest itself.

In early November, the American agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released a detailed report on the state of the Southern Oscillation and analyzed the possible development of El Niño in 2015-2016. The report is published on the NOAA website. In conclusions of this document It is said that currently there are all the conditions for the formation of El Niño, the average surface temperature of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (SST) has increased values ​​and continues to rise. The probability that El Niño will develop throughout the winter of 2015-2016 is 95% . A gradual decline of El Niño is predicted in the spring of 2016. The report published an interesting graph showing the change in SST since 1951. The blue areas correspond to low temperatures(La Niña), orange shows elevated temperatures (El Niño). The previous strong increase in SST of 2°C was observed in 1998.

Data obtained in October 2015 indicate that the SST anomaly at the epicenter already reaches 3 °C.

Although the causes of El Niño are not yet fully understood, it is known that it begins with trade winds weakening over several months. A series of waves move across the Pacific Ocean along the equator and create a body of warm water off South America, where the ocean normally has low temperatures due to the rise of deep ocean waters to the surface. Weakening trade winds coupled with strong westerly winds could also create a pair of cyclones (south and north of the equator), which is another sign of a future El Niño.

While studying the causes of El Niño, geologists noticed that the phenomenon occurs in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, where a powerful rift system has formed. American researcher D. Walker found a clear connection between increased seismicity on the East Pacific Rise and El Niño. Russian scientist G. Kochemasov saw another curious detail: the relief fields of ocean warming almost one to one repeat the structure of the earth's core.

One of interesting versions belongs to the Russian scientist - Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Syvorotkin. It was first expressed back in 1998. According to the scientist, powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing are located in hot spots of the ocean. Or simply - sources of constant release of gases from the bottom. Their visible signs are thermal water outlets, black and white smokers. In the area of ​​the coast of Peru and Chile, during El Niño years there is a massive release of hydrogen sulfide. The water is boiling and there is a terrible smell. At the same time, an amazing power is pumped into the atmosphere: approximately 450 million megawatts.

The El Niño phenomenon is now being studied and discussed more and more intensively. A team of researchers from the German National Center for Geosciences has concluded that the mysterious disappearance of the Mayan civilization in Central America may have been caused by strong climate change caused by El Niño. At the turn of the 9th and 10th centuries AD, the two largest civilizations of that time ceased to exist on opposite ends of the earth almost simultaneously. We are talking about the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese Tang Dynasty, which was followed by a period of internecine strife. Both civilizations were located in monsoon regions, the moisture of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, a time came when the rainy season was unable to provide enough moisture for development Agriculture. The drought and subsequent famine led to the decline of these civilizations, researchers believe. Scientists came to these conclusions by studying the nature of sedimentary deposits in China and Mesoamerica dating back to this period. The last emperor of the Tang Dynasty died in 907 AD, and the last known Mayan calendar dates back to 903.

Climatologists and meteorologists say that El Niño2015, which will peak between November 2015 and January 2016, will be one of the strongest. El Niño will lead to large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation, which could cause droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods in dry ones.

A phenomenal phenomenon, which is considered one of the manifestations of the developing El Niño, is now observed in South America. The Atacama Desert, which is located in Chile and is one of the driest places on Earth, is covered with flowers.

This desert is rich in deposits of saltpeter, iodine, table salt and copper, there has been no significant precipitation here for four centuries. The reason is that the Peruvian current cools the lower layers of the atmosphere and creates temperature inversion which prevents precipitation. Rain falls here once every few decades. However, in 2015, the Atacama was hit by unusually heavy rainfall. As a result, dormant bulbs and rhizomes (horizontally growing underground roots) sprouted. The faded plains of the Atacama were covered with yellow, red, violet and white flowers - nolans, beaumaries, rhodophials, fuchsias and hollyhocks. The desert first bloomed in March, after unexpectedly intense rains caused flooding in the Atacama and killed about 40 people. Now the plants have bloomed for the second time in a year, before the start of the southern summer.

What will El Niño 2015 bring? Expected to be powerful El Niño will bring long-awaited showers to dry areas of the United States. In other countries, its effect may be the opposite. In the western Pacific Ocean, El Niño creates high atmospheric pressure, bringing dry and sunny weather to large areas of Australia, Indonesia, and sometimes even India. The impact of El Niño on Russia has so far been limited. It is believed that under the influence of El Niño in October 1997, temperatures in Western Siberia reached above 20 degrees, and then they started talking about the retreat of permafrost to the north. In August 2000, Emergencies Ministry specialists attributed the series of hurricanes and rainstorms that swept across the country to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.