Climate change: what awaits Russia. Why the climate has changed How are the changes in climatic conditions and the alternation

It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. Let's see what are the causes of climate change, who is to blame and what to do?

Yakutia tamed extreme climate

It's all about melting arctic ice…

The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy winter snowfall in temperate latitudes and incredible heat in summer," says Stephen Vavrus, senior fellow at the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies.

The scientist explained that the heated regions over regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, causing ocean currents to move and generating strong winds. “Now the Arctic is moving into a new state,” says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the melting process ice is coming very quickly, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.

Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies quickly moved and were destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) "get stuck" in one area much longer than before

Global warming on earth

UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat is the production activity of man, since a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.

Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change threatens humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.

To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the main goal of which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.

Most from climate change the people of Africa and Asia will suffer, which, moreover, are now experiencing a population boom. As noted by Robert Watson, head of the UN panel of experts, warming will adversely affect agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, which will cause a lack of drinking water and various epidemics. In addition, abrupt climate change leads to the formation of devastating typhoons, which in last years have become more frequent.

Consequences of global warming

The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but they will rise in Southeast Asia. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in the zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice will also melt in the mountains of South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.

What should Russia expect?

Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is related to the fact that Russian Federation drowns in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming can deal a strong blow to the Russian economy as well, as the permafrost begins to melt under the cities of the Far North, where the pipelines that support our economy are located.

What to do?

Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Under this system of government various countries establish limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances polluting the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, a certain industrial enterprise has reduced the volume of emissions, as a result of which they have an "surplus" of the quota.

These surpluses they sell to other enterprises, which are cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts have proposed introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.

However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,

Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. Economists estimate that every dollar spent on Scientific research, will help to avoid 11 dollars. damage from climate change.

There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all countries northern hemisphere will act decisively and unanimously. Some experts propose to create a hydraulic structure in the Bering Strait capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,

Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In some circumstances, it must act like a dam and prevent the passage of water from Pacific Ocean to the Arctic, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the Arctic Ocean to the Pacific. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.

Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked Andrey Shmakin, head of the climatology laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geography, to comment on this topic:

- Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about the cold snap. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.

What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.

Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.

- How fast goes process changes climate?

“It's a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.

— U our scientists a lot of works on this topic?

- A lot of. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment Report on Climate Change in Russia". It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions of Russia.

- Can whether How- That slow down This process? Kyoto protocol, For example?

- The Kyoto Protocol in a practical sense brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.

Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...

- Which- That other measures?

- Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.

The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.

Read the most interesting in the rubric

Climate change has become a reality. The average annual temperature on the planet has risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius, and the level of the world's seas has risen by one meter. The catastrophic consequences of global warming are already visible today. The first extinct animal species, the waters of the island, the increase in floods and droughts around the world - the Climate of Russia portal presents: 10 real consequences of climate change.

Fact number 1. Death of rare animals

A couple of years ago, scientists were only hypothesizing about which representatives of flora and fauna would disappear from the face of the Earth as a result of climate change. Today, temperature fluctuations reshape the composition of flora and fauna.

The first victim of global warming was the reef mosaic-tailed rat. The animal lived in Australia, in the Torres Strait, on the Bramble Cay coral reef measuring 340 by 150 meters. Scientists agreed that the reason for the extinction of this animal is the rise in the level of the ocean.

The mosaic-tailed rat is the first animal species to become extinct due to climate change. Photo: bbc.com

Two years ago, zoologists set traps, but never caught a single mosaic-tailed rat. Due to the fact that the reef was repeatedly flooded, the animals lost up to 94 percent of their range, and the area of ​​the island's vegetation decreased from 2.2 to 0.065 hectares. “This case is the first documented extinction of mammals due to anthropogenic climate shifts,” scientists say.

Fact number 2. Extinction of more than a third of the corals of the Great Barrier Reef

Pictured on the left are healthy corals from the Great Barrier Reef. After death, corals lose their color and turn white, as in the photo on the right. Photo: www.uq.edu.au

As a result of global warming, the water temperature in the Coral Sea has risen. This destroyed 35 percent of the corals in the northern and central Great Barrier Reef, which is a world heritage UNESCO. The water warmed up, which led to a "bleaching" and death of sensitive organisms, experts from James Cook University concluded. This is the name given to the process by which corals weaken and lose the colored algae that covers them, a source of oxygen and nutrients.

Scientists have calculated that it will take at least ten years for the algae layer to recover. It will take even longer for new corals to grow on the Great Barrier Reef to replace dead relatives.

Fact number 3. Temperature anomalies in the Arctic

exhausted by hunger polar bear in the Arctic. Melting ice threatens the lives of northern animals: seals, polar bears, walruses and others. Photo: Kerstin Langenberger Photography

This year, temperature records on the planet have been set repeatedly. So, according to the Hydrometeorological Center, April 2016 was the warmest in the history of meteorological observations in the Northern Hemisphere. Exactly one year, since May 2015, the absolute maximums of the average monthly air temperature are recorded here. The most serious anomalies were recorded in the Arctic: in the Kara and Barents Seas, on Novaya Zemlya and Yamal - up to +8ºС and above. In the west of Greenland and Alaska - up to + 6ºС.

In the period from 1980 to 2012, the area of ​​Arctic ice decreased by more than 2 times. Photo: climatechangenews.com

Fact number 4. Nine trillion tons of melted ice in Greenland

Today, glaciers are literally disappearing before our eyes. You can see this thanks to the project of the American photographer James Balogh Extreme Ice Survey. In 2007, he installed cameras next to the glaciers and, together with assistants, began to observe them. In December last year, the project participants published the result of an eight-year investigation: an edited video demonstrates the catastrophic rate of melting of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska in a few seconds. For eight years, the glacier retreated more than half a kilometer.

Massive shrinkage of the Greenland ice sheet from 1979 to 2007. Photo: occupy.com

Scientists are sounding the alarm: glaciers around the world are melting at an alarming rate. For example, over the past 100 years, Greenland has lost over nine trillion tons of ice. NASA estimates that each year the island's ice sheet is "thinning" by about 287 billion tons. Between August 13 and 19, 2015, a piece of 12.5 square kilometers broke away from the Jakobshavn Glacier in Greenland. According to experts, this volume is enough to cover the entire Manhattan with a layer of ice almost 300 meters thick.

The area of ​​glaciers is decreasing all over the world. Pictured is the melted Uppsala Glacier in Argentina. Melting glaciers are the main cause of rising sea levels. Photo: bartholomewmaps.com

Fact number 5. Part of the Solomon Islands went under water

Hundreds of thousands of people are forced to leave their homes - many islands of the Pacific Ocean have gone under water due to rising sea levels. Photo: abc.net.au

Five small patches of land that make up the Solomon Islands archipelago have disappeared due to rising sea levels and erosion, Australian researchers have concluded. This is the first scientific evidence that climate change is affecting coasts in the Pacific Ocean.

a) Change coastline Sogomou Islands (Solomon Islands) between 1947 and 2014
b) View of eastern part Sogomou Islands (2013)
c) Changes in the coastline of Calais between 1947 and 2014. In 2014, the island was completely submerged.
Photo: iopscience.iop.org

The Solomon Islands are several hundred pieces of land. Their population is almost 640 thousand people. For two decades, the ocean level in this archipelago has risen to 10 millimeters per year. The islands that disappeared, covering an area of ​​​​one to five hectares, were not inhabited - unlike six other reefs, which were partially hidden under water. On these islands there were villages that were abandoned by people. So, Nuatambu served as a home for 25 families. Since 2011, they have lost half the area of ​​the island.

Fact number 6. Four-year drought in California

Dry Lake Oroville, California. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Staff/Getty Images

Dry Lake Oroville, California. Photo: Forbes.com

Global warming is not to blame for California's record drought, researchers at Columbia University's Lamont-Dougherty Earth Observatory say. But - temperature fluctuations increased the intensity of the dangerous weather phenomenon by 15-20%. If the temperature on Earth continues to rise, drought will create a critical situation in the region. The lack of rain provokes forest fires that destroy all life in their path. In recent years, California forests have lost millions of trees due to drought and the invasion of bark beetles caused by climate warming. In four years, about 58 million trees in California have lost almost a third of the water they need from the forest canopy.

Fact number 7. Natural disasters

The worst flood in Paris, 2016. The level of the Seine River rose 6.5 meters above normal. Thousands of people were evacuated, dozens were injured, major attractions of the city are closed. Photo: bloomberg.com

At the end of May, heavy rains covered Western Europe and caused floods, which became a real disaster for Germany and France. In Paris, the water level in the Seine reached its highest level in 30 years. After four days of continuous rain, the water level in the river within the borders of Paris rose 4.15 meters above normal. Navigation on the Seine was stopped, many stations of the Paris metro stopped their work. Due to the risk of flooding, the world-famous Louvre and Orsay museums have been closed. In total, more than five thousand people were evacuated in France. Heavy downpours in Paris, unusual for June, remind us of the need to take urgent action to curb climate change. Francois Hollande.

Global warming has played a huge role in these natural disasters in France, climatologists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) project confirm. Main thesis their work - over the past 50 years, climate change has almost doubled the likelihood of multi-day downpours in the homeland of Flaubert and Joan of Arc.

More and more boreal forests are disappearing in the flames of wildfires in the northern hemisphere. Photo: BLM Alaska Fire Service

In 2015, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources, 232 natural fires occurred in Russia in the territories of 31 nature reserves and 19 national parks. In total, more than 50,000 hectares of forest burned down. The most damage was caused to the Siberian Federal District, where 129 fires were registered in four national parks and eleven state reserves.

The number of natural disasters in the world is increasing every year. Schedule according to the international insurance company Munich RE. Photo: Munich RE

Fact number 8. Climate change is one of the reasons for the war in Syria

Since 1990 mean annual temperature in Syria increased by 1-1.2ºС. In this regard, the rainy season, vital for crops, has decreased by 10 percent. Local farmers are in a difficult position. The harvest fell, the lack of water in the territory of the Fertile Crescent killed the animals. As a result, unemployment worsened, grain prices rose by almost a third, and famine set in.

Al-Zaatari temporary accommodation camp for 80,000 Syrian refugees. Photo: sputniknews.com

The severe drought that lasted in Syria from 2006 to 2010 was one of the reasons that provoked civil war in the country. This conclusion was made by American climatologists. The study was published in the prestigious journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Map of rainfall and vegetation in southern countries. Prolonged drought and water shortages are forcing people to protest and join illegal armed groups. Photo: independent.co.uk

These factors, the researchers concluded, added to the already difficult situation in the country, caused by government corruption, social protests and population growth. As a result, one and a half million villagers rushed to the overcrowded cities, which provoked a civil conflict.

Fact number 9. Over 19 million climate refugees

Climate refugees try to get the rest of the water from a dry well.

Temperature fluctuations provoke devastating floods, fires and droughts, forcing people to leave their native lands. In 2014, more than 19 million people from 100 countries were forced to leave their homes due to natural disasters caused by climate change. In the future, these numbers will grow rapidly. Scientists estimate that by the middle of the century the number of so-called environmental refugees will rise to 200 million.

Climate change is forcing people to leave their native lands in search of a prosperous life. Photo: eartjournalism.net

However, the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees still lacks the concept of “climate” or “environmental refugee”, which makes it difficult to maintain statistics on this species migrants. In May of this year, the inhabitants of the island of De Jean-Charles in Louisiana (USA) became the first officially recognized "climate refugees". The land, where the representatives of the Indian tribe lived for hundreds of years, today turns into a salt marsh and gradually sinks into the sea due to floods. Under a state government program, a community of about 60 people left the island due to climate change.

Fact number 10. epidemic outbreaks

This year, humanity is faced with another threat - the Zika virus. To date, the disease has been found in 23 countries and is rapidly spreading throughout the planet.

Women infected with the Zika virus with their children. Photo: images.latinpost.com

The Zika virus is an infectious disease transmitted primarily by mosquitoes. Sexual transmission of the virus has also been reported. The virus is most dangerous for pregnant women, as it causes microcephaly in the fetus with potential severe brain damage.

Scientists call global warming one of the reasons for the rapid spread of the disease. Climate change has created favorable living conditions for mosquitoes that carry the virus, and more extensive breeding areas.

The climate on our planet is constantly changing, and recently the rate of these changes has been accelerating.

The global temperature is rising and this is having a negative impact on the world as a whole.

In this review, there are "ten" facts that will give an understanding of how dangerous the changes taking place on the planet are.

1. Greenhouse effect

Heat waves are on the rise, both in number and duration, as well as the associated heatstroke and deaths. As cities around the planet experience the greenhouse effect during the summer, they are especially vulnerable.

2. Dengue fever

It would seem that developed countries have long forgotten about a number of diseases. But American scientists have begun to sound the alarm: the people of the United States are becoming more susceptible to dengue fever and malaria.

3. Fresh water

Although sea levels are rising, the presence fresh water decreases all the time. This happens due to the melting of ice fields, as well as drought.

4. Extreme weather

The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase every year. For example, tropical storms will occur more frequently and be more destructive. If the climate continues to change at the current rate, by 2050 the number of coral reefs in the ocean will be significantly reduced.

5. Ground smog

Warm stale air in cities increases the formation of ground smog. Half of the population in developed countries already lives in cities that do not meet generally accepted air quality standards, and in China this has already become a nationwide disaster.

6. Agreement between Tuvalu and New Zealand

Some island countries are already considering evacuation plans. For example, Tuvalu also concluded an agreement with New Zealand regarding resettlement in this country in the event of a complete flooding of the islands of Tuvalu, which are more and more submerged every year.

7. $700 billion down the drain

Climate change is hitting hard on many countries. By 2030 world economy, is projected to lose $700 billion due to costs associated with climate change.

8. Allergy season

Allergy season is getting longer. This has an adverse effect on the respiratory health of people suffering from allergies (which are almost half the population).

9. Food problem

Food problems may soon begin. First, more high temperatures increase distribution food diseases such as salmonellosis. And secondly, crop production around the world is heavily affected by droughts. Global harvests of wheat and corn are already declining around the world.

10. Demographics

Extreme weather and declining agricultural production in developing countries will start causing more conflict and migration. And the opening of sea lanes in the Arctic due to receding ice could lead to sovereignty and international conflicts. Desert expansion and rising sea levels will also lead to demographic and political problems due to more high level migrations.

11. Flora and fauna

Many of the changes the planet is undergoing are irreversible. For example, various species of flora and fauna completely disappear.

12. Arctic

By 2050, the Arctic will be almost completely ice-free in summer period. Already now, due to the melting of the ice, polar bears cannot hunt for food. This leads to their starvation and habitat reduction,

13. CO2

The acidity level of ocean water is rising due to the increase in carbonic acid levels (due to CO2 in the atmosphere). This will have Negative consequences for many species of marine flora and fauna.

14. Polarization of society

The worst impacts of climate change will be on children, the elderly and the poor, as they will not be able to cope with drastic changes in food availability and drastic changes in living conditions. Climate change is likely to polarize society between those who will be able to cope with it (wealthier countries) and those who will not be able to do so (poor countries).

15. The death of 30% of plant and animal species

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has published a rather dire forecast. If their forecasts regarding temperature turn out to be correct, then up to 30% of plant and animal species will completely die out by the end of the 21st century.

In the modern world, humanity is increasingly concerned about the issue of global climate change on Earth. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, a sharp warming began to be observed. The number of winters with very low temperatures has significantly decreased, and the average surface air temperature has increased by 0.7 °C. The climate has changed naturally over millions of years. Now these processes are happening much faster. It should be borne in mind that global climate change can lead to dangerous consequences for all mankind. We will talk further about what factors provoke climate change and what the consequences may be.

Earth's climate

The climate on Earth was not constant. It has changed over the years. Changing dynamic processes on the Earth, the influence of external influences, solar radiation on the planet has led to climate change.

We know from school that the climate on our planet is divided into several types. Namely, there are four climatic zones:

• Equatorial.
• Tropical.
• Moderate.
• Polar.

Each type has specific value parameters:

• Temperatures.
• The amount of precipitation in winter and summer.

It is also known that the climate significantly affects the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as the soil and water regime. It depends on what kind of climate prevails in a given region, which crops can be grown in the fields and in subsidiary farms. The resettlement of people, the development Agriculture, health and life of the population, as well as the development of industry and energy.

Any climate change significantly affects our lives. Consider how the climate can change.

Manifestations of a changing climate

Global climate change manifests itself in deviations of weather indicators from long-term values ​​over a long period of time. This includes not only temperature changes, but also the frequency weather events that go beyond the normal, and are considered extreme.

There are processes on Earth that directly provoke all sorts of changes. climatic conditions and also indicate to us that global climate change is taking place.

It is worth noting that climate change on the planet is currently happening very quickly. Thus, the planetary temperature has risen by half a degree in only some half a century.

What factors influence the climate

Based on the processes listed above, which indicate climate change, several factors can be identified that affect these processes:

• Change of orbit and change in the inclination of the Earth.
• A decrease or increase in the amount of heat in the depths of the ocean.
• Change in the intensity of solar radiation.
• Changes in the relief and location of continents and oceans, as well as changes in their size.
• Changing the composition of the atmosphere, a significant increase in the amount of greenhouse gases.
• Change in the albedo of the earth's surface.

All these factors influence the climate of the planet. Climate change also occurs for a number of reasons, which can be natural and anthropogenic in nature.

Causes that provoke a change in climatic conditions

Consider what causes of climate change are considered by scientists around the world.

1. Radiation coming from the Sun. Scientists believe that the changing activity of the hottest star may be one of the main causes of climate change. The sun develops and from the young cold it slowly passes into the aging stage. Solar activity was one of the causes of the onset of the ice age, as well as periods of warming.
2. Greenhouse gases. They provoke a rise in temperature in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The main greenhouse gases are:

3. Changing the Earth's Orbit leads to a change, redistribution of solar radiation on the surface. Our planet is affected by the attraction of the moon and other planets.

4. The impact of volcanoes. It is as follows:

• Impact on environment volcanic products.
• The impact of gases, ash on the atmosphere, as a consequence on the climate.
• The influence of ash and gases on snow, ice on the peaks, which leads to mudflows, avalanches, floods.

Passively degassing volcanoes have a global impact on the atmosphere, as does an active eruption. It can cause a global decrease in temperatures, and as a result - crop failure or drought.

Human activity is one of the causes of global climate change

Scientists have long found the main cause of global warming. This is an increase in greenhouse gases that are emitted and accumulate in the atmosphere. As a result, the ability of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems to absorb carbon dioxide as it grows in the atmosphere decreases.

Human activities affecting global climate change:

Scientists, based on their research, concluded that if natural causes influenced the climate, the temperature on earth would be lower. It is human influence that contributes to the increase in temperature, which leads to global climate change.

Having considered the causes of climate change, let's move on to the consequences of such processes.

Are there positive sides global warming.

Seeking benefits in a changing climate

Considering how much progress has been made, increasing temperatures can be used to increase crop yields. At the same time creating favorable conditions for them. But this will be possible only in zones with a temperate climate.

The advantages of the greenhouse effect include an increase in the productivity of natural forest biogeocenoses.

Global impacts of climate change

What will be the consequences on a global scale? Scientists believe that:

Earth's climate change will have a significant impact on human health. The number of cardiovascular and other diseases may increase.

• A decrease in food production can lead to starvation, especially for the poor.
• The problem of global climate change, of course, will also affect the political issue. Possible intensification of conflicts over the right to own sources of fresh water.

At present, we can already observe some of the effects of climate change. How will the climate on our planet continue to change?

Predictions for the development of global climate change

Experts believe that there may be several scenarios for the development of global changes.

1. Global changes, namely the rise in temperature, will not be abrupt. Earth has a moving atmosphere thermal energy due to the movement of air masses is distributed throughout the planet. The oceans store more heat than the atmosphere. On such big planet with its complex system, change cannot happen too quickly. It will take millennia for significant change.
2. Rapid global warming. This scenario is much more common. The temperature has increased over the last century by half a degree, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 20%, and methane by 100%. The melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice. The water level in the oceans and seas will rise significantly. The number of cataclysms on the planet will increase. The amount of precipitation on Earth will be unevenly distributed, which will increase the areas affected by drought.
3. In some parts of the Earth, warming will be replaced by a short-term cooling. Scientists have calculated such a scenario, based on the fact that the warm Gulf Stream has become 30% slower and can completely stop if the temperature rises by a couple of degrees. This may be reflected in severe cooling in Northern Europe, as well as in the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and in the northern regions of the European part of Russia. But this is possible only for a short period of time, and then warming will return to Europe. And everything will develop according to 2 scenarios.
4. Global warming will be replaced by global cooling. This is possible when not only the Gulf Stream stops, but also other ocean currents. This is fraught with the onset of a new ice age.
5. The worst scenario is a greenhouse disaster. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will contribute to an increase in temperature. This will lead to the fact that carbon dioxide from the world's oceans will begin to pass into the atmosphere. The carbonate sedimentary rocks will decompose with even more carbon dioxide, which will lead to an even greater increase in temperature and the decomposition of carbonate rocks in deeper layers. Glaciers will melt rapidly, while reducing the Earth's albedo. The amount of methane will increase, and the temperature will rise, which will lead to disaster. An increase in temperature on earth by 50 degrees will lead to the death of human civilization, and by 150 degrees it will cause the death of all living organisms.

Global climate change of the Earth, as we see, can be a danger to all mankind. Therefore, it is necessary to pay great attention to this issue. It is necessary to study how we can reduce human influence on these global processes.

Climate change in Russia

Global climate change in Russia cannot fail to affect all regions of the country. It will reflect both positively and negatively. The residential zone will move closer to the north. Heating costs will be significantly reduced, and the transportation of goods along the Arctic coast to major rivers. In the northern regions, the melting of snow in areas where there was permafrost can lead to serious damage to communications and buildings. Migration will begin. Already in recent years, the number of such phenomena as drought, storm winds, heat, floods, severe cold has increased significantly. It is not possible to say specifically how warming will affect different industries. The essence of climate change must be studied comprehensively. It is important to reduce the impact of human activities on our planet. More on this later.

How to avoid disaster?

As we saw earlier, the consequences of global climate change can be simply catastrophic. Humanity should already understand that we are able to stop the approaching catastrophe. What needs to be done to save our planet:

Global climate change cannot be allowed to get out of control.

The large world community at the UN conference on climate change adopted the UN Framework Convention (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). What a pity that some countries put their well-being above solving the issues of global climate change.

The international scientific community has a huge responsibility to determine the trends of climate change in the future and to develop the main directions of the consequences of this change will save humanity from catastrophic consequences. And the adoption of costly measures without scientific justification will lead to huge economic losses. The problems of climate change concern all mankind, and they must be addressed together.

Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences B. LUCHKOV, professor at MEPhI.

The sun is an ordinary star, not distinguished by its properties and position from the myriad of stars of the Milky Way. in terms of luminosity, size, mass, it is a typical middle peasant. It occupies the same middle place in the Galaxy: not close to the center, not on the edge, but in the middle, both in the thickness of the disk and in the radius (8 kiloparsecs from the galactic core). the only, one must think, difference from most stars is that life arose on the third planet of the vast economy of the Galaxy 3 billion years ago and, having undergone a number of changes, survived, giving rise to the thinking creature homo sapiens on the evolutionary path. a person who is searching and inquisitive, having populated the whole earth, is now engaged in the study of the world around him in order to know “what”, “how” and “why”. what, for example, determines the earth's climate, how is the earth's weather formed, and why does it change so abruptly and sometimes unpredictably? These questions seem to have received well-founded answers long ago. and over the past half century, thanks to global studies of the atmosphere and the ocean, an extensive meteorological service has been created, without reports of which now neither a housewife going to the market, nor an airplane pilot, nor a climber, nor a plowman, nor a fisherman can do - absolutely no one. it’s just noticed that sometimes the forecasts go wrong, and then the housewives, pilots, climbers, not to mention the plowmen and fishermen, vilify the weather service for how much in vain. this means that everything is not yet completely clear in the weather kitchen, and one should carefully understand the complex synoptic phenomena and relationships. One of the main ones is the earth-sun connection, which gives us warmth and light, but from which hurricanes, droughts, floods and other extreme “weathers” sometimes break free, like from a pandora's box. what gives rise to these “dark forces” of the earth's climate, which is generally quite pleasant compared to what is happening on other planets?

The coming years lurk in the mist.
A. Pushkin

CLIMATE AND WEATHER

Earth's climate is determined by two main factors: the solar constant and the inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation to the plane of the orbit. Solar constant - the flux of solar radiation coming to Earth, 1.4 . 10 3 W/m 2 is indeed unchanged with high accuracy (up to 0.1%) both in short (seasons, years) and long (centuries, millions of years) scales. The reason for this is the constancy of the solar luminosity L = 4 . 10 26 W, determined by the thermonuclear “burning” of hydrogen in the center of the Sun, and the almost circular orbit of the Earth (R= 1,5 . 10 11 m). The “middle” position of the luminary makes its character surprisingly tolerable - no changes in luminosity and solar radiation flux, no changes in temperature of the photosphere. Calm, balanced star. And the climate of the Earth is therefore strictly defined - hot in equatorial zone, where the sun is at its zenith almost every day, moderately warm at mid-latitudes and cold near the poles, where it barely protrudes from the horizon.

Another thing is the weather. In each latitudinal zone, it manifests itself as a certain deviation from the established climatic standard. There is also a thaw in winter and buds swell on the trees. It happens that at the height of summer bad weather will come with a piercing autumn wind, and sometimes snowfall. Weather is a specific realization of the climate of a given latitude with possible (recently very frequent) deviations-anomalies.

MODEL PREDICTIONS

Weather anomalies are very harmful, they cause great damage. Floods, droughts, severe winters destroyed agriculture, led to famine and epidemics. Storms, hurricanes, heavy rains also did not spare anything in their path, forcing people to leave the devastated places. The victims of weather anomalies are innumerable. It is impossible to subdue the weather, to mitigate its extreme manifestations. The energy of weather disruptions is not subject even now, in an energetically developed time, when gas, oil, uranium gave us great power over nature. The energy of an average hurricane (10 17 J) is equal to the total output of all power plants in the world in three hours. Unsuccessful attempts to stop the impending bad weather were made in the last century. In the 1980s, a frontal attack on hurricanes was carried out by the US Air Force (Operation Storm Fury), but they showed only their complete impotence (Science and Life, No. ).

Yet science and technology have been able to help. If it is impossible to contain the blows of the enraged elements, then perhaps it will be possible at least to foresee them in order to take timely measures. Weather development models began to develop, especially successfully with the introduction of modern computers. The most powerful computers, the most complex calculation programs now belong to weather forecasters and the military. The results were not long in coming.

By the end of the last century, calculations based on synoptic models had reached such a level of perfection that they began to describe well the processes occurring in the ocean (the main factor in terrestrial weather), on land, in the atmosphere, including its lower layer, the troposphere, the weather factory. A very good agreement was reached between the calculation of the main weather factors (air temperature, the content of CO 2 and other "greenhouse" gases, heating of the surface layer of the ocean) with real measurements. Above are plots of calculated and measured temperature anomalies over a century and a half.

Such models can be trusted - they have become a working tool for weather forecasting. Weather anomalies (their strength, place, moment of occurrence), it turns out, can be predicted. This means that there is time and opportunity to prepare for the strikes of the elements. Forecasts have become commonplace, and the damage caused by weather anomalies has been drastically reduced.

A special place was occupied by long-term forecasts, for tens and hundreds of years, as a guide to action for economists, politicians, heads of production - “captains” modern world. Several long-term forecasts for the 21st century are now known.

WHAT IS THE COMING CENTURY PREPARING FOR US?

The forecast for such a long period, of course, can only be approximate. Weather parameters are presented with significant tolerances (error intervals, as is customary in mathematical statistics). To take into account all the possibilities of the future, a number of development scenarios are being played out. The Earth's climate system is too unstable, even best models, tested against tests of past years, can make miscalculations when referring to the distant future.

The calculation algorithms are based on two opposite assumptions: 1) a gradual change in weather factors (optimistic option), 2) their sharp jump, leading to noticeable climate changes (pessimistic option).

In the forecast of gradual climate change in the 21st century (“Report working group Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change”, Shanghai, January 2001) presents the results of seven model scenarios. The main conclusion is that the warming of the Earth, which covered the entire last century, will continue further, accompanied by an increase in the emission of "greenhouse gases" (mainly CO 2 and SO 2), an increase in surface air temperature (by 2-6 ° C by the end of the new century) and sea ​​level rise (on average 0.5 m per century). Some scenarios give a decline in emissions of "greenhouse gases" in the second half of the century as a result of the ban on industrial emissions into the atmosphere, their concentration will not differ much from the current level. Most likely changes in weather factors: higher maximum temperatures and more hot days, less cold minimum temperatures and fewer frosty days in almost every region of the world, reduced temperature variation, more intense precipitation. Possible climate changes are more summer dry spells with a noticeable risk of droughts, stronger winds and greater intensity of tropical cyclones.

The past five years filled with severe anomalies (dreaded North Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons keeping up with them, the harsh winter of 2006 in the Northern Hemisphere and other weather surprises) show that the new century does not seem to have taken an optimistic path. Of course, the century has just begun, deviations from the predicted gradual development can be smoothed out, but its “stormy start” gives reason to doubt the first option.

THE 21st CENTURY SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE (P. SCHWARTZ, D. RANDELL, OCTOBER 2003)

This is not just a forecast, it is a shake-up - an alarm signal for the "captains" of the world, reassured by the gradual climate change: it can always be corrected with small means (conversation protocols) in the right side, and you can not be afraid that the situation will get out of control. The new forecast proceeds from the outlined tendency of growth of extreme natural anomalies. They think it's starting to come true. The world has gone down a pessimistic path.

The first decade (2000-2010) is a continuation of gradual warming, which does not yet cause much concern, but still with a noticeable acceleration rate. North America, Europe, partly South Africa will have 30% more warm and less frosty days, the number and intensity of weather anomalies (floods, droughts, hurricanes) affecting agriculture will increase. Nevertheless, such weather cannot be considered particularly severe, threatening the world order.

But by 2010 there will be so many dangerous changes that will lead to jump climate in a completely unforeseen (according to the gradual version) direction. The hydrological cycle (evaporation, precipitation, water leakage) will accelerate, which will further increase average temperature air. Water vapor is a powerful natural "greenhouse gas". Due to the increase in the average surface temperature, forests and pastures will dry up, massive forest fires will begin (it is already clear how difficult it is to fight them). The concentration of CO 2 will increase so much that the usual absorption by ocean water and land plants, which determined the rate of "gradual change", will no longer work. The greenhouse effect will pick up. Abundant snowmelt will begin in the mountains, in the subpolar tundra, the area polar ice will decrease sharply, which will greatly reduce the solar albedo. Air and land temperatures are rising catastrophically. Strong winds, due to the large temperature gradient, cause sandstorms and lead to soil weathering. There is no control over the elements and the possibility of at least a little tweaking it. The pace of dramatic climate change is picking up pace. The trouble covers all regions of the world.

At the beginning of the second decade, there will be a slowdown in the thermocline circulation in the ocean, and he is the main creator of the weather. Due to the abundance of rain and the melting of the polar ice, the oceans will become fresher. The usual transfer of warm water from the equator to the middle latitudes will be suspended.

The Gulf Stream, the warm Atlantic current along North America towards Europe, the guarantor of the temperate climate of the Northern Hemisphere, will freeze. Warming in this region will be replaced by a sharp cooling and a decrease in precipitation. In just a few years, the vector of weather change will turn 180 degrees, the climate will become cold and dry.

At this point, computer models do not give a clear answer: what will actually happen? Will the climate of the Northern Hemisphere become colder and drier, which will not yet lead to a global catastrophe, or will a new ice age lasting hundreds of years begin, as happened on Earth more than once and not so long ago (Little Ice Age, Event-8200, Early Trias - 12,700 years ago).

The worst case that can really happen is this. Devastating droughts in regions of food production and high population density (North America, Europe, China). Reduced precipitation, drying up of rivers, depletion of fresh water. Reduction of food supplies, mass starvation, the spread of epidemics, the flight of the population from disaster areas. Growing international tension, wars for food sources, drinking and energy resources. At the same time, in regions with a traditionally dry climate (Asia, South America, Australia) - heavy rains, floods, the death of agricultural land, not adapted to such an abundance of moisture. And here, too, the reduction of agriculture, the lack of food. Collapse modern device peace. Sharp, by the billions, population decline. The rejection of civilization for centuries, the arrival of cruel rulers, religious wars, the collapse of science, culture, morality. Armageddon as predicted!

Abrupt, unexpected climate change to which the world simply cannot adapt.

The conclusion of the scenario is disappointing: it is necessary to take urgent measures, and it is not clear which ones. Absorbed by carnivals, championships, thoughtless shows, the enlightened world, which could “undertake” something, simply does not pay attention to it: “Scientists scare, but we are not afraid!”

SOLAR ACTIVITY AND TERRESTRIAL WEATHER

There is, however, a third version of the Earth's climate forecast, which agrees with the rampant anomalies at the beginning of the century, but does not lead to a universal catastrophe. It is based on observations of our star, which, despite all the apparent calmness, still has noticeable activity.

Solar activity is a manifestation of the outer convective zone, which occupies a third of the solar radius, where, due to a large temperature gradient (from 10 6 K inside to 6 . 10 3 K on the photosphere), hot plasma breaks out in “boiling streams” that generate local magnetic fields with a strength thousands of times greater than the total field of the Sun. All observed features of activity are due to processes in the convective zone. Photosphere granulation, hot areas (torches), ascending prominences (arcs of matter raised by magnetic field lines), dark spots and groups of spots - tubes of local magnetic fields, chromospheric flares (the result of a rapid closure of opposite magnetic fluxes, which converts the supply of magnetic energy into the energy of accelerated particles and plasma heating). In this tangle of phenomena on visible disk The sun is intertwined with a radiant solar corona (the upper, very rarefied atmosphere heated to millions of degrees, the source of the solar wind). A significant role in solar activity play coronal condensations and holes observed in X-rays, and mass ejections from the corona (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). Numerous and varied manifestations of solar activity.

The most indicative, accepted activity index is the Wolf number W, introduced back in the 19th century, indicating the number dark spots and their groups on the solar disk. The face of the Sun is covered with a changing freckle patch, which indicates the inconsistency of its activity. On c. 27 below shows a graph of average annual values W(t), obtained by direct monitoring of the Sun (the last century and a half) and restored from individual observations until 1600 (the luminary was not under “constant supervision” then). Visible ups and downs in the number of spots - activity cycles. One cycle lasts an average of 11 years (more precisely, 10.8 years), but there is a noticeable scatter (from 7 to 17 years), the variability is not strictly periodic. Harmonic analysis also reveals a second variability - secular, the period of which, also not strictly consistent, is ~100 years. On the graph, it manifests itself clearly - with such a period, the amplitude of solar cycles Wmax changes. In the middle of each century, the amplitude reached its maximum values ​​(Wmax ~ 150-200), at the turn of the century it decreased to Wmax = 50-80 (at the beginning of the 19th and 20th centuries) and even to an extremely small level (beginning of the 18th century). During a long time interval, called the Maunder minimum (1640-1720), no cyclicity was observed and the number of sunspots on the disk was calculated in units. The Maunder phenomenon, which is also observed in other stars close in luminosity and spectral class to the Sun, is a not entirely understood mechanism for the rearrangement of the convective zone of a star, as a result of which the generation of magnetic fields slows down. Deeper “excavations” have shown that similar restructurings on the Sun have happened before: the minimums of Sperer (1420-1530) and Wolf (1280-1340). As you can see, they happen on average after 200 years and last 60-120 years - at this time, the Sun seems to fall into a lethargic sleep, resting from active work. Almost 300 years have passed since the Maunder Minimum. It's time for the luminary to rest again.

Here there is a direct connection with the topic of terrestrial weather and climate change. The chronicle of the times of the Maunder minimum definitely points to anomalous weather behavior similar to what is happening today. Throughout Europe (less likely throughout the Northern Hemisphere), surprisingly cold winters were observed at this time. The canals froze, as evidenced by the paintings of the Dutch masters, the Thames froze, and it became a custom for Londoners to arrange festivities on the ice of the river. Even the North Sea, warmed by the Gulf Stream, was ice-bound, as a result of which navigation was stopped. In these years, almost no auroras were observed, which indicates a decrease in the intensity of the solar wind. The breathing of the Sun, as happens during sleep, weakened, and this is what led to climate change. The weather became cold, windy, capricious.

SOLAR BREATHING

How, by means of what is the solar activity transmitted to the Earth? There must be some material carriers that carry out the transfer. There can be several such “carriers”: the hard part of the solar radiation spectrum (ultraviolet, X-ray), solar wind, matter emissions during solar flares, CMEs. The results of observations of the Sun in the 23rd cycle (1996-2006) carried out by spacecraft SOHO, TRACE (USA, Europe), CORONAS-F (Russia) showed that CMEs are the main “carriers” of solar influence. They primarily determine the earth's weather, and all the other "carriers" complete the picture (see "Science and Life" No. ).

CMEs have been studied in detail only recently, having realized their leading role in solar-terrestrial relations, although they have been noticed since the 1970s. In terms of emission frequency, mass and energy, they surpass all other “carriers”. With a mass of 1-10 billion tons and speed (1-3 . 10 km/s, these plasma clouds have a kinetic energy of ~10 25 J. Reaching the Earth for several days, they have a strong impact first on the Earth's magnetosphere, and through it on the upper layers of the atmosphere. The mechanism of action is now well understood. The Soviet geophysicist A.L. Chizhevsky guessed about it 50 years ago, in general terms it was understood by E.R. Mustel and his colleagues (1980s). Finally, today it has been proven by observations from American and European satellites. The SOHO orbital station, which has been conducting continuous observations for 10 years, has registered about 1500 CMEs. The SAMPEX and POLAR satellites noted the appearance of emissions near the Earth and traced the impact.

In general terms, the impact of CMEs on the Earth's weather is now well known. Having reached the vicinity of the planet, the expanded magnetic cloud flows around the Earth's magnetosphere along the boundary (magnetopause), since the magnetic field does not let charged plasma particles inside. The impact of the cloud on the magnetosphere generates fluctuations in the magnetic field, which manifests itself as a magnetic storm. The magnetosphere is squeezed by the flowing solar plasma flow, the concentration of field lines increases, and at some point in the development of the storm, they reconnect (similar to what generates flares on the Sun, but on a much smaller spatial and energy scale). The released magnetic energy is used to accelerate the particles of the radiation belt (electrons, positrons, protons of relatively low energies), which, having acquired energy of tens and hundreds of MeV, can no longer be retained. magnetic field Earth. A stream of accelerated particles spills out into the atmosphere along the geomagnetic equator. Interacting with the atoms of the atmosphere, charged particles transfer their energy to them. A new “energy source” appears, affecting the upper layer of the atmosphere, and through its instability to vertical displacements, the lower layers, including the troposphere. This “source”, associated with solar activity, “shatters” the weather, creating cloud accumulations, giving rise to cyclones and storms. The main result of his intervention is the destabilization of the weather: calm is replaced by a storm, dry land by heavy rainfall, rains by drought. It is noteworthy that all weather changes begin near the equator: tropical cyclones that develop into hurricanes, variable monsoons, the mysterious El Niño (“Child”), a worldwide weather disturbance that suddenly appears in the eastern Pacific Ocean and just as suddenly disappears.

According to the “solar scenario” of weather anomalies, the forecast for the 21st century is calmer. The Earth's climate will change slightly, but the weather regime will undergo a noticeable shift, as it always did when solar activity faded. It may not be very strong (colder than usual winter months and rainier summer months) if solar activity drops to Wmax ~ 50, as was the case in the early 19th and 20th centuries. It can become more serious (cooling of the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere) if a new Maunder minimum occurs (Wmax< 10). В любом случае похолодание климата будет не кратковременным, а продолжится, вместе с аномалиями погоды, несколько десятилетий.

What awaits us in the near future will be shown by the 24th cycle, which is now beginning. With a high probability, based on the analysis of solar activity over 400 years, its amplitude Wmax will become even smaller, solar respiration even weaker. We need to keep an eye on coronal mass ejections. Their number, pace, sequence will determine the weather early XXI century. And, of course, it is absolutely necessary to understand what happens to your favorite star when her activity stops. This task is not only scientific - in solar physics, astrophysics, geophysics. Its solution is fundamentally necessary to clarify the conditions for the preservation of life on Earth.

Literature

Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I of IPCC (Shanghai, January 2001), Internet.

Schwartz R., Randall D . An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario (October 2003), Internet.

Budyko M. Climate. What will he be like? // Science and Life, 1979, No. 4.

Luchkov B. Solar influence on terrestrial weather. Scientific session MiFi-2006 // Collection scientific papers, vol. 7, p.79.

Moiseev N. The future of the planet and system analysis // Science and Life, 1974, No. 4.

Nikolaev G. Climate at a turning point // Science and Life, 1995, No. 6.