A week is enough for the Iranian army so that there is no prince left on the prince from Saudi Arabia. Soviet "legacy" brought Saudi Arabia and Iran to the brink of war The army of Iran and Saudi Arabia

Armed forces Saudi Arabia (Royal Saudi Armed Forces) has 124.5 thousand military personnel and includes ground forces (SW, army), air force, air defense forces, navy and missile forces. In addition, there are 100,000 ground forces of the National Guard (NG). The armed forces are led by the king, who is the supreme commander. He directs them through the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Military Inspectorate and the Ministry of the National Guard.

The armed forces of the Saudi Army are recruited on a contract basis. Suitable for military service mobilization resources amount to 3.4 million people.

SAUDI ARMY

The ground forces (army) were officially created in 1932 with the proclamation of Saudi Arabia, although already from 1902 to 1932. they fought to create a kingdom. Subsequent wars and conflicts in which the Saudi Arabian army was involved are given below:

1. Arab-Israeli war of 1948 - St. 3 thousand people;

2. Arab-Israeli war of 1967 - St. 20 thousand people NE was deployed in Jordan;

3. Conflict over the city of Al-Wadiya in 1969 - South Yemeni troops captured the Saudi city of Al-Wadiya, but were defeated by the army of Saudi Arabia;

4. Arab-Israeli war of 1973 - St. 3 thousand people, SV, deployed in Jordan, participated in the battles in Syria;

5. The war of the US coalition and its allies against Iraq in 1990-1991. - parts of the National Guard (NG) recaptured the Saudi city of Khafzhi, captured by the Iraqis, and the NE participated in the liberation of Kuwait;

6. Conflict with the Al-Houthi rebels in Yemen in 2007-2010. - Al-Houthis set up bases in Saudi Arabia, but the Saudi Arabian army defeated them.

At present, the army of Saudi Arabia is relatively small (74 thousand people) and is of less priority compared to other branches of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces, and service in it is not considered prestigious.

The ground forces are led by the commander through the headquarters (Riyadh).

In military and administrative terms, the territory of Saudi Arabia is divided into six regional commands (military regions or zones): Central (headquarters in Riyadh), Northern (Hafar al-Batin), North-Western (Tabuk), Southern (Khamis Mushait), Eastern (Dammam) and Western (Jeddah).

The ground forces include 13 brigades (3 armored, 5 mechanized, airborne, royal guard infantry, artillery and 2 army aviation), according to other sources, there are 4 armored brigades in the SV, and not 3, and in addition there are 3 framed light motorized brigades with weapons in warehouses.

The units of the army of Saudi Arabia are stationed at three large bases, referred to as "military cities", as well as in the area of ​​a number of settlements. The fourth major base is being built in Jizan on the Yemeni direction. "Military cities" are a feature of the Saudi Arabian army, and the headquarters of the divisional-level regional commands provide not only the maintenance, provision and combat training of brigades in peacetime, but also their management in time of war. The Northern Regional Command covers the Iraqi (Iranian) direction. Northwestern - Jordanian (Israeli). Southern - Yemeni.

According to other sources, the Northern Command also has the 45th armored brigade, and the 10th mechanized brigade is stationed not at the base of King Abd al-Aziz, but in the city of Sharur in the Yemeni direction.

The armored brigades (4th and 12th, numbers 6, 7, 8 and 45 were mentioned) are the main strike formations of the SV. The brigade usually includes 6 battalions (3 tank, mechanized, reconnaissance and logistics), 3 divisions (self-propelled artillery, anti-aircraft and anti-tank), 2 companies (engineering and medical), as well as a repair shop. According to other sources, the brigade does not have an anti-tank division, and instead of a reconnaissance battalion, there is a company.

Armored brigade units are equipped with the most modern weapons in the army of Saudi Arabia. Tank battalions have 42 M1A2 tanks each, mechanized battalions have 54 M2A2 infantry fighting vehicles, 8 M106A2 self-propelled 106-mm mortars and 24 VCC-1 TOW II and Dragon anti-tank systems, and artillery battalions have 16 M109A2 self-propelled 155-mm howitzers.

Mechanized brigades (8th, 11th and 20th, numbers 6, 10 and 14 were mentioned) are combined arms formations. The brigade usually includes 5 battalions (3 mechanized, tank and logistics), 2 divisions (self-propelled artillery and anti-aircraft), 2 companies (engineering and medical), as well as a repair shop.

Units of mechanized brigades are equipped with less modern weapons than those in armored brigades. Tank battalions consist of M60A3 tanks, mechanized battalions - BMP M2A2 or armored personnel carrier ACV (M113A3 +), self-propelled mortars M106A1 or M125A1 / 2, anti-tank systems VCC-1 TOW II and Dragon, and in artillery battalions - self-propelled 155-mm howitzers M109A2.

According to some reports, obsolete French weapons (AMX-30S tanks, AMX-10R infantry fighting vehicles, NOT anti-tank systems and AU-F-1 self-propelled howitzers) are being withdrawn from service for storage, or have already been withdrawn.

The airborne brigade includes 2 parachute battalions (4th and 5th), three companies special purpose(according to some reports, they are united in the 85th battalion) and support units. In connection with the threat of terrorism, special forces units are increasing in number, their equipment and combat training are improving. Their independence has been increased and they report directly to the Minister of Defense.

The brigade (1st regiment) of the royal guard includes 3 light infantry battalions and support companies. It is directly subordinate to the king, has its own communication network and is equipped with light armored personnel carriers M-3. Her personnel recruited from the tribes of the central region of Najd, devoted to the house of Saud.

Some sources report the presence in the SV of three more cadre brigades (17th, 18th and 19th light motorized). In such a brigade there are 4 battalions (3 motorized and logistic support), an artillery battalion, anti-tank and anti-aircraft batteries, as well as support companies,

The artillery brigade includes 8 divisions (3 - self-propelled howitzers PLZ-45 and 2 - towed howitzers 114 (M198), 3 - ASTROS II MLRS).

Army aviation brigades are united in the corresponding command. The 1st brigade is equipped with Bell 406 CS reconnaissance helicopters and multi-purpose S-70A, the 2nd brigade is equipped with AN-64A attack helicopters.

Experts consider the advantages of the army of Saudi Arabia to be partially equipped with modern weapons, the disadvantages are its small size, incommensurable with the size of the country's territory and defense needs, insufficient staffing with sergeants and technical specialists. Some formations have only 30-50% of the personnel, and the level of discipline is low. IN ground forces ah serve mercenaries from Pakistan and Jordan and fighting qualities they are higher than that of indigenous soldiers. Part of the armament is outdated, and the presence of several types of tanks, armored combat vehicles and artillery complicates training and logistics.

AIR FORCE

The Saudi Arabian Air Force (20 thousand people) is considered the main deterrent, strike and defensive force of the Armed Forces, capable of operating against targets in the air, on land and at sea. They are the most priority branch of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. The leadership of the kingdom has set an ambitious task for the Air Force - to become the strongest in the Middle East. The leadership of the Air Force is carried out by the commander through the headquarters (Riyadh), which includes management and 7 commands: operational, supply (maintenance), intelligence, logistics and personnel, security and investigations, warehouses and training.

There are 15 military airfields in the country, including 5 main air force bases: them. King Abdulaziz (Dahran - provides cover for large oil fields in the Persian Gulf); them. King Fahd (Taif - designed to protect Mecca and Medina); them. King Khaled (Khamis Mushait - provides cover for the border with Yemen); base in Tabuk (covers ports in the north-west of the country, as well as the borders with Jordan and Iraq); them. Prince Sultan (Riyadh - covers the capital of the country). Other military airfields include Abqaiq, Al-Asha, Jizan, Hofuf, Jeddah, Jubail, Medina, Sharura and Al-Sulayil. Pilot training is conducted at the Aviation Academy. King Faisal (El-Kharj airbase, south of Riyadh).

The Air Force includes 15 combat aircraft squadrons:

• 7 fighter-bombers (2 - F-15S, 4 - Tornado TSP, 1 - Typhoon),
• 7 fighters (5 - F-15C/D, 1 - F-155, 1 - Tornado ADV),
• 1 reconnaissance aircraft (RF-5E and Tornado IDS].

There is also a squadron of E-3A AWACS aircraft, RE-3A and King Air 350ER radio and electronic intelligence aircraft, KE-3A and A330MRTT tankers, as well as a squadron of KS-130N tankers, 2 squadrons of C-130E / N, 3 transport aircraft squadrons of transport helicopters АВ-205, АВ-212 АВ-412, АВ-206А and Cougar, a squadron of VIP C-130H-30, L-100-30HS, C-235 aircraft, 9 squadrons of training aircraft F-5B, Hawk Mk65, PC-9, Jetstream 31, Cessna 172.

Among the advantages of the Saudi Arabian Air Force, military experts note a high degree of equipment with new aircraft and weapons, and among the shortcomings is the dependence in matters of maintenance on foreign specialists and dependence on the supply of spare parts, as well as weapons from abroad. In addition, about half of the pilots are princes of the blood, which does not contribute to high-quality selection and maintaining discipline during the service.

AIR DEFENSE TROOPS

Air defense forces (16 thousand people) are the second priority type of aircraft. They are entrusted with the task of covering important administrative, economic and military facilities: the capital, oil production areas, groupings of troops, air force, sea and missile bases.

The air defense forces are led by the commander through the headquarters. The air defense forces consist of anti-aircraft missile troops, anti-aircraft artillery and RTV units. Air Force fighters are under the operational control of the air defense.

The air defense system of Saudi Arabia forms the basis of the GCC "Shield of Peace" air defense system, which includes 17 AN / FPS-117 (V) 3 early warning radars, coupled with 28 AN / PPS-43G radars, 35 AN / TPS-63, 3 AN / TPS -70, 9 X-Tar 3D, 66 Skygyard short and medium range, as well as balloon radar LASS.

The air defense system control center is located in Riyadh. He leads the five sectors, whose command posts are located in the cities of Dhahran (east of the country), Al-Kharj (center), Khamis Mushayt (south), Taif (west) and Tabuk (northwest). Air defense systems are integrated using the Peace Shield command, control, intelligence and communications system.

Air Force bases have operations centers that are integrated with AWACS E-3A AWACS aircraft, fighter aircraft, SAM batteries and anti-aircraft artillery. Organizationally, the air defense forces are consolidated into 6 air defense groups (districts).

In total, the air defense of Saudi Arabia has 53 batteries of towed air defense systems (20 - Patriot with 8 launchers, 16 - I-Hawk with 8 launchers and 17 - Shahine with 4 AMX-30SA launchers). It also includes 18 batteries of self-propelled air defense systems (1 - Crotale with 4 launchers each, 17 - Shahine no 4 AMX-30SA launchers). As part of the SV there are 9 batteries of self-propelled air defense systems Crotale, and as part of the SV and air defense - a number of batteries of the Avenger air defense system, 20-mm ZSU and ZSU Vulcan (M167 and M16Z), 30-mm ZSU AMX-30DCA, 35-mm GDF ZSU, MANPADS Stinger and Mistral.

NAVAL FORCES

The Navy (13.5 thousand people) provides protection of the kingdom and its oil platforms from the sea from the Iranian Navy and opposition to the Israeli Navy, as well as protection of sea routes for oil exports. They are the third priority branch of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. The Navy consists of two fleets - Western (on the Red Sea, headquarters in Jeddah) and Eastern (in the Persian Gulf, headquarters in El Jbeil). The headquarters of the Navy is located in Riyadh.

Each fleet includes several groups of ships and boats. The Eastern Fleet is the strongest. The Navy has a network of naval bases (naval bases) and base points: on the Red Sea - Jeddah, Yanbu, the Jizan naval base is being built, in the Persian Gulf - El Jbeil, Dammam, Ras Tanura, El Shamakh, Duba and Kwizan.

Naval aviation is based in El Jbeil and is equipped with helicopters: AS-565 (anti-submarine with AS-15TT anti-ship missiles, search and rescue) and AS-332B / F (half with AM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, half transport).

The Marine Corps (3 thousand people) has a two-battalion regiment equipped with BMR-600P amphibious armored personnel carriers.

Coastal defense troops include 4 batteries of Otomat mobile coastal SCRCs.

The advantage of the Saudi Arabian Navy is the equipment of relatively modern ships and boats, the disadvantage is the absence of submarines.

ROCKET TROOPS

The Rocket Forces (1,000 men) are an independent arm of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Their base is located in Al-Uttaha and has 8-12 starting positions of modified ballistic missiles medium range DF-3A (CSS-2). According to other sources, 2 divisions are deployed: one in the As-Sulayal oasis, 475 km south-southwest of Riyadh, the second in Al-Juifer, near the Zl-Khair air base, located south of the capital. There is a training unit that can also launch missiles - it is located in the southwest of the country near Al-Liddama.

Missile systems have limited mobility (on trailers), and it takes 2-3 hours to prepare them for launch. A third of the missiles on the transporters are ready for launch, a third are half filled and a third are not filled and are in storage.

These missiles are considered a strategic non-nuclear deterrent. They have high-explosive warheads (warheads), low accuracy, and are aimed at large population centers in Iran and Israel. There are no nuclear warheads, but the leadership of Saudi Arabia has stated that as soon as Iran receives nuclear weapon, in a few weeks it will appear in Saudi Arabia. It is most likely that the kingdom will receive it from Pakistan, since it once financed its nuclear program. However, KSA can create nuclear weapons on its own. This will be facilitated by the fact that by 2030 the country is scheduled to have 16 reactors.

NATIONAL GUARD

The National Guard is a separate land force of the kingdom, with its own command structure and communications network, reporting directly to the king, who leads them through a special ministry created in 2013.

The NG has priority over the army in equipping its personnel with modern weapons, as well as in combat training. The Guard is a security force that ensures the fight against internal threats, and at the same time serves as a defensive force against external invasion. The tasks of the NG are to protect royal palace, protection against military coups, defense of strategic facilities and resources, protection of Mecca and Medina. The NG is the royal praetorian guard, with personnel drawn from tribes loyal to the king and his family (mainly from the Nejd region). It is always led by a high-ranking member royal family. NG was reorganized and prepared with American help.

The number of NGs is 100 thousand people, it includes active forces (75 thousand people) and tribal militia (25 thousand people). Active forces include 8-9 regular brigades (3-4 mechanized, 5 infantry, tribal militia - 24 irregular battalions, called regiments. There is also a ceremonial cavalry squadron. According to other sources, the NG includes 12 brigades (5 mechanized, 6 infantry, special forces) and 19 battalions of tribal militia.

NG formations are deployed in 3 regional commands, each with 2-4 brigades (mechanized, light infantry), tribal militia battalions and other units.

A mechanized NG brigade usually includes 5 battalions (4 combined arms and logistics), an artillery battalion, an anti-aircraft battery and 3 companies (headquarters, communications, engineering). The brigade has 360 modern wheeled armored fighting vehicles of the LAV family, 106 infantry fighting vehicles LAV-25, as well as 90-mm BMTV LAV-AG, armored personnel carrier LAV, self-propelled installations (120-mm mortars LAV-M, ATGM TOW-IIA LAV-AT), KShM LAV -CC, LAV-ENG engineering vehicles, LAV-ARV ARVs, and 24 Caesar self-propelled wheeled 155mm howitzers.

The light infantry brigade of the NG usually includes 4 battalions (3 light infantry and logistics support), an artillery battalion and support companies. The brigade is equipped mainly with outdated V-150 wheeled armored personnel carriers, M29 81mm mortars, Dragon ATGMs, and M102 105mm howitzers.

The following are the names of the NG brigades and their features:

• mechanized by them. Imam Mohammed ibn Saud in Riyadh - 4 combined arms battalions, artillery battalion of 105-mm M102 howitzers;
• mechanized by them. Prince Saad Abd al-Rahman in Riyadh - 4 combined arms battalions;
• mechanized by them. Turks;
• light infantry them. King Khalid;
• mechanized by them. King Abd al-Aziz in Ofuf - 4 combined arms battalions, an artillery division of 155-mm M198 howitzers;
• light infantry them. Prince Mohammed bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud;
• light infantry them. Omar bin Kattaba in Taif;
• two LPBRs in Jidze and Medina.

The advantages of NG are considered by military experts to be its devotion to the king, high morale, discipline and combat training, as well as the staffing with modern highly mobile armored combat vehicles, the disadvantages are the lack of tanks and helicopters, and weak air defense.

An analysis of the organization of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia showed that the ground forces (NE + NG) with 3-4 armored and 14-17 mechanized / infantry brigades maintain a ratio of shock and defensive formations of 1: 4.3-4.7. This indicates the purely defensive nature of the ground forces of the KSA.

WEAPONS

The armament of the Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia is mainly American and partly French, but there are English, Italian, Swiss, Chinese, etc. The stocks of weapons and military equipment are very large, for example, the army has weapons for twice as many brigades.

armored vehicles

The tank fleet has modern American tanks M1A2SEP and M1A2, as well as obsolete vehicles: American M60A3 and French AMX-30S. Modern tanks have 33% of the total and 50% of the number in service. It is planned to upgrade 315 M1A2 tanks to the M1A2SEP level and purchase 270 of the latest German Leopard 2A7+ tanks (according to other sources, 600-800). However, this purchase may fail due to a ban by the German government, in which case it is planned to purchase the M1A2SEP tanks or the Turkish Altay tanks being developed. In the future, it is planned to have up to 700 modern tanks, and remove the old M60A3 and AMX-30 from service.

The BBM fleet has 30% of modern vehicles, incl. in NE - 8%, in NG - 49%.

BMTV SVs include outdated French AML-60 and AML-90 4x4 wheeled vehicles, and NGs include modern Canadian-American 8x8 LAV-AGs (Swiss Piranha I with a 90mm cannon). New BMTV LAV-II with a 90-mm gun will be purchased.

SV infantry fighting vehicles include modern American M2A2 and M3A2 BRM vehicles, as well as older French AMX-10R Modern BMP 51%. It is planned to upgrade the M2A2 and M3A2 machines to the A3 level. Wheeled 8x8 infantry fighting vehicles LAV-II ordered.

BMP NG are represented by modern Canadian LAV-25. It is planned to purchase new BMP LAV-II.

The fleet of armored personnel carriers SV has obsolete American tracked vehicles M113A1 / 2 and vehicles of their modernized ACV version according to the Turkish project. It is planned to upgrade all M113 to the level of ACV (324 units have already been ordered). There are also 150 obsolete French wheeled 4x4 armored personnel carriers M-3 Panhard. 155 wheeled 8x8 armored personnel carriers LAV-II have been ordered.

Wheeled armored personnel carriers NG are represented by modern Swiss 8x8 Piranha LAV, Saudi 8x8 AF-40-8-1 and obsolete American V-150S. To replace the latter, it is planned to purchase 724 Canadian LAV-II AFVs and 200 Saudi 6x6 AI Jazirah.

Marine armored personnel carriers are represented by amphibious Spanish 6x6 BMR-600.

NG armored vehicles include English 4x4 Tactica vehicles. It is planned to purchase 264 French Aravis cars.

Artillery

Artillery has 28% of modern systems, incl. in NE - 23%, and in NG - 79%.

Towed SV guns are represented by obsolete American M101, M102, M114 and M115 howitzers, as well as more modern M198 and FH-70 (the latter are English). It should be noted that only M114 howitzers are in service (used for combat training), and the rest, incl. modern - in storage.

Towed NG guns include M102 and M198 howitzers. SV self-propelled howitzers are represented by outdated American M109A1 / 2 and French AU-F-1 systems, as well as modern Chinese PLZ-45, SG NG - modern French Caesar wheel systems.

Towed SV mortars include the obsolete American M29 and M30, the French 120mm Brandt, and the NG mortars M29.

Self-propelled mortars of the ground forces include the obsolete American M125A1 / 2 and M106A1 / 2, self-propelled mortars NG - modern French TDA on the LAV-M chassis. It is planned to purchase 36 new Finnish NEMO systems on the LAV chassis for NG.

MLRS are represented by relatively modern Spanish 127-mm / 180-mm ASTROS II systems, carrying 32/16 NUR with a firing range of 30/35 km.

Medium-range missile systems include obsolete Chinese DF-3A (CSS-2) systems. Their missiles have a range of 2400-2650 km; warhead 2-2.5 tons, KVO 1 km. It is planned to replace them with more accurate Pakistani Ghauri II IRBMs or more modern Chinese DF-21A / C with non-nuclear warheads, a firing range of 2700/1700 km and a KVO of 100-300 / 30-40 m.

ATGMs are represented by portable and self-propelled systems. Among them, 53% of modern systems.

Portable SV ATGMs include the outdated American Dragon systems and more modern TOW-2A, and the NG ATGMs - Dragon. To replace the Dragon ATGM, licensed production of the Swedish Bill-2 systems has begun.

Self-propelled SV ATGMs include the American VCC-1 ITOW and French AMX-10R (NOT) systems, and the NG ATGMs include LAV-AT TOW-2A. It is planned to purchase 72 more LAV-AT launchers and 2500 TOW-2A ATGMs for NG.

air defense

Air defense systems include 55% of modern systems, artillery and air defense systems, towed and self-propelled, as well as MANPADS.

Towed anti-aircraft installations Air defense is represented by the Swiss 35-mm GDF Oerlikon and obsolete Swedish 40-mm L / 70 guns, and NG - by the American 20-mm M167 Vulcan installations.

SPAAGs include the American 20mm M163 Vulcan mounts on the chassis of the M113 armored personnel carrier and the French 30mm AMX-30DCA SPAAGs on the chassis of the AMX-30S tank. According to some reports, 20 35-mm Skyranger ZSUs on the LAV chassis were purchased for NG.

MANPADS are represented by outdated American Redeye systems and more modern Stingers, as well as modern French Mistrals.

Self-propelled air defense systems include modern American Avenger / Stinger systems, outdated French Crotale wheeled systems and more modern Shahine AMX-30SA on the AMX-30S tank chassis. For NG, it is planned to purchase 68 MPCV air defense systems with Mistral-2 missiles on the chassis of Lohr vehicles.

The towed air defense systems are represented by the outdated American I-Hawk (modernized) and the more modern Patriot PAC-2, as well as the French Shahine ATTS. It is planned to upgrade the Patriot PAC-2 air defense system to the PAC-3 level.

Aircraft and aviation weapons

Helicopters include exclusively modern machines.

SV attack helicopters are represented by the American AN-64A. It is planned to upgrade them to the level of AH-64U.

Security support helicopters include American reconnaissance Bell 406CS, transport S-70A and UH-60A, French ambulance AS-365N.

For the NG army aviation being created, it is planned to purchase 156-190 helicopters from the USA, incl. 72-106 shock (36-70 AN-64D Block III, 36 light AH-6i) and 84 support (72 airborne UH-60M and 12 light MD-530F). Thus, the number of NG helicopters will be 2.3 times more than SV helicopters (attack helicopters - 6 times). It is planned to purchase 2592 Hellfire-II ATGMs for attack helicopters.

The Air Force has, in the main, modern aircraft and weapons (combat aircraft - up to 80%), while the fleet is constantly replenished with the latest aircraft.

Fighter-bombers include multirole fighters (American F-15S and European Typhoons) as well as European Tornado TSP strike aircraft; fighters - American F-15C / D and F-15S, English Tornado ADV interceptors; reconnaissance aircraft - European Tornado IDS (the only exception is the obsolete American RF-5E, while the F-5E / F combat vehicles have been put into reserve). It is planned to upgrade the F-15S aircraft to the F-15SA, and most importantly, to purchase 132 new aircraft (84 F-15SA and 48 Typhoon).

AWACS aircraft are represented by the American E-3A AWACS (it is planned to purchase the Swedish SAAB 2000 AEW), radio and electronic intelligence aircraft - by the American RE-3A and King Air350ER.

Tanker aircraft include American KE-3A and KS-130N, European A330MRTT (it is planned to purchase 6 more A330MRTT), transport aircraft - American C-130E / H, VIP C-130H-30, L-100-30HS, C-235 aircraft .

Transport helicopters are represented by American Italian-made AB-205 and AB-206A, AB-212 and AB-412 (more modern) and French Cougar.

Training aircraft include the obsolete American Cessna 172, Jetstream 31 and F-5B, the more modern British Hawk Mk65 and the Swiss RS-9. It is planned to purchase 22 Hawk AJT aircraft and 55 PC-21s.

Aviation weapons have only 34% of modern systems, so large purchases of new models are planned.

Air-to-ground missiles include the American AGM-65A/D/G Maverick, the British anti-radar ALARM and anti-ship Sea Eagle, the French AS-15 helicopter anti-ship and AM-39 Exocet. It is planned to purchase American cruise missiles AGM-84K SLAM-ER (20 units) and English Storm Shadow, Italian anti-ship Marte, British anti-tank Brimstone.

Guided bombs are represented by the American Paveway-2 and GBU-10/12/15 systems. It is planned to purchase 900 JDAM bombs: 550 GBU-38 (Mk82), 350 GBU-31 (250 Mk84 and 100 BLU-109), as well as Paveway-4 and 404 CBU-105SFW cluster bombs with BLU-108 / B homing submunitions.

Short-range air-to-air missiles include the American modern AIM-9L/M/X and older AIM-9J/P, as well as the obsolete British Red Top, and medium-range missiles include the American modern AIM-120 and older AIM-7F /M, as well as English Sky Flash. It is planned to purchase 120 AIM-9X and 50 AIM-120C missiles, as well as German IRIS-T.

Container detection systems are represented by the American AAQ-33 Sniper, French ATLIS and Damocles. It is planned to purchase another 95 AAQ-33 systems.

Unmanned aerial systems include the Italian reconnaissance Falco (weight 420 kg, payload 70 kg, range over 200 km, flight duration 14 hours). Scientific and technological center. King Abd al-Aziz created a lighter complex with a flight range of 150 km and a duration of 8 hours.

ships

The Navy has modern frigates, corvettes and missile boats. The frigates are represented by French ships of the F-3000S type (displacement 4650 tons, armament 2x4 anti-ship missiles MM40 Exocet, UVP with 16 Aster-15 missiles, 2x6 Mistral missiles, 76-mm gun, 2 20-mm gun, 4 533-mm TA, helicopter AS -565WA Panter) and F-2000S (2610 tons, 2x4 Otomat anti-ship missiles, 1x8 Crotale Naval missiles, 100-mm gun, 2x2 40-mm gun, 4 533-mm TA, SA-365 Dauphin 2 helicopter). The possibility of purchasing two new Arleigh Burke-class destroyers from the USA or 4-6 FREMM-class frigates from France is being considered.

Corvettes are represented by American ships of the PCG-1 type (1038 tons, 2x4 anti-ship missiles Nagroop, 76-mm AU, 1x6 20-mm AU, 2 20-mm AU, 2x3 324-mm TA). Missile boats - American type PGG-1 (495 tons, 2x2 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, 76-mm guns, 1x6 20-mm guns, 2 20-mm guns). The possibility of replacing corvettes and missile boats with French corvettes of the Gowind type with a displacement of 2000 tons is being considered.

Patrol boats are represented by the American Halter type and the French Simonneau type.

The minesweepers include the obsolete American MSC-322 type and the modern British Sandown type.

Landing craft are represented by obsolete American LCM type (capacity 34 tons or 80 people) and LCU-1610 (capacity 170 tons or 120 people).

The possibility of forming a flotilla of submarines (6 French Marlin types - improved Scorpene) is being considered.

General analysis

An analysis of the armament of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia showed that the ratio of tanks, armored combat vehicles and artillery is 1: 4.4: 1.2 (in terms of armament in the ranks - 1: 5.5: 1.2). Such ratios confirm the defensive orientation of the SV. The ratio of fighters and fighter-bombers is 1:0.43 (for aircraft in service - 1:0.71). This shows that the Air Force is focusing on defense, which is confirmed by the ratio of air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles (1: 0.38). The presence of a powerful ground-based air defense system also speaks about the defensive orientation of the Armed Forces. Modern in the Armed Forces are only 33% of tanks, 30% of AFVs (in the SV - 8%, in the NG - 49%), 28% of artillery (in the SV - 23%, in the NG - 79%), 53% of anti-tank systems (in the SV - 51%, in NG - 100%), 55% anti-aircraft weapons Air defense, SV and NG 100% SV helicopters, 80% Air Force combat aircraft, 100% Navy warships. This shows that the armament of the ground forces is 2/3 out of date, and even the NG, which has more modern weapons than the army, cannot compensate for this, since it is intended mainly to solve internal tasks and does not have tanks necessary for offensive operations and combined arms combat. That is, ground forces (army + NG) are adapted to solve mainly defensive tasks.

From this it can be argued that the armed forces of Saudi Arabia are intended only for the defense of the country. However, the planned large purchases of offensive weapons (600-800 tanks, 1080 AFVs, 156-190 helicopters and 132 strike aircraft) indicate intentions to significantly increase the offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces.

MILITARY INDUSTRY OF SAUDI ARABIA

The KSA military industry produces only wheeled armored personnel carriers (8x8 AF-40-8-1 and 6x6 Al Jazirah), as well as AF-40-8-2 armored personnel carriers, so weapons have to be purchased abroad.

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are equipped mainly with American weapons (74% of tanks, 78% of armored combat vehicles, 56% of artillery, 96% of anti-tank systems, 64% of anti-aircraft weapons, 91% of helicopters, 63% of combat aircraft and 86% of their weapons, 65% of combat ships and missile boats). Therefore, the kingdom can only wage war with the help and support of the United States. However, the authorities of the kingdom have tried and are trying to get rid of this dependence by diversifying the sources of obtaining weapons by acquiring weapons and military equipment in other countries:

• in France (tanks AMX-30S, BMTV AML-60/90, BMP AMX-10R, BTR M-3, SG AU-F-1 and Caesar, ATGM NOT, ZSU AMX-30DCA, SAM Crotale and Shahine, MANPADS Mistral, helicopters AS-365N, AS-565 and AS-532, frigates F-3000S and F-2000S);
• in England (FH70 howitzers, Tornado, Typhoon and Hawk aircraft, Sandown minesweepers);
• in China (SG PLZ-45, MRBM DF-3A);
• in Switzerland (GDF memory, RS-9 aircraft);
• in Spain (armored personnel carrier BMR-600, S-235 aircraft);
• in Brazil (MLRS Astros II), etc.

It is also planned to purchase German Leopard 2A7+ tanks and additional Typhoon aircraft. But among the weapons planned for purchase, the majority is again American, so dependence on the United States remains and even increases.

Having considered and analyzed the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, we can draw the following conclusions:

1. In terms of priority among the types of the KSA Armed Forces, the Air Force is in first place, then the Air Defense Forces, Navy, NG and SV.

2. The KSA Armed Forces, judging by their organization and armament, are intended only for the defense of the country,

3. The planned large purchases of offensive weapons (600-800 tanks, 1080 AFVs, 156-190 helicopters and 132 attack aircraft) testify to the intentions of the KSA leadership to significantly increase the offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces (including NG).

4. The armed forces, having predominantly American weapons, can only wage war with the help and support of the United States.

COMPARISON OF THE ARMED FORCES OF SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN

The confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a special case and one of the largest components of the Arab-Iranian conflict, a confrontation within the Muslim civilization of two branches of Islam (Sunnis and Shiites), as well as two sub-civilizations and nations (Arabs and Persians). This conflict most clearly manifested itself during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), which became the largest war since 1945. Iraq, where the Sunni Arabs were in power, fought against the Shiite Persians of Iran. During this war, ballistic missiles and chemical weapons were actively used and more than 1 million people died. Iraq was financially supported by many Arab countries where the Sunnis were in power, and first of all by Saudi Arabia. They remember it in Iran.

After the defeat of Iraq by the US troops and their allies in two wars (in 1991 and 2003) and the withdrawal of their troops from the country in December 2011, the Shiites, who make up 55% of the population, came to power there. As a result, Iraq withdrew from the confrontation with Iran, and economic, political and other ties were established between the countries. In the event of an Iranian-Saudi war, the possibility of Iranian troops passing through the territory of Iraq (with or without its consent) and their invasion of the KSA cannot be ruled out.

Iran is the main military threat to Saudi Arabia. Although an attack by Iranian ground forces on Saudi Arabia is unlikely, however, in the event of an American attack by Iran, its asymmetric retaliatory ballistic missile strike against KSA facilities is quite possible (for example, Iraq fired missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel in 1991). In addition, Iran can use special forces against Saudi Arabia and use the Iranians living in the kingdom to destabilize the situation in the country and as a "fifth column". Sabotage is also possible on gas and oil platforms of the KSA and an attack on them by missile boats and submarines of the Iranian Navy.

The area of ​​Iran is 1648 thousand square meters. km, the population is 77.89 million people, and the armed forces number 545 thousand people. (KSA has 2149 thousand sq. km., 28.7 million people and 224.5 thousand people, respectively). Those. Iran's population is 2.7 times larger, and the Sun - 2.4 times.

The Iranian ground forces have 350 thousand people. (+125 thousand people. IRGC), they include 12 divisions of the SV (4 tank, 6 infantry, airborne and commando) + 15 infantry divisions of the IRGC.

NE KSA has 75 thousand people. (+100 thousand people. NG), 10-11 brigades of the SV (3-4 armored, 5 mechanized, airborne and royal guards) + 8-9 brigades of the NG (3-4 mechanized and 5 infantry) + 24 battalion. Hence, the NE + IRGC of Iran is 2.7 times more than the NE + NG KSA. There are 12 divisions in the NE of Iran, and 4 calculated divisions in the NE of the KSA, i.e. less than 3 times (there are 15 divisions in the Iranian IRGC, and 11 settlement divisions in the NG KSA). In aggregate, Iran has a 1.8-fold superiority in the number of divisions of ground forces.

Iran has 1693 tanks, 1285 AFVs, 3200 guns and MLRS, while the KSA has 1113 tanks, 4936 AFVs, 852 guns and MLRS. Hence, the Iranian ground forces have a quantitative superiority in strike and firepower (1.5 times in tanks and 3.8 times in artillery), but the Saudi Arabian army has superiority in maneuverability (3.8 times more AFVs).

However, in order to deploy a sufficiently strong Iranian military force in Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to conduct a large amphibious landing operation, and this is unlikely given the overall superiority of the Saudi Air Force and the presence of the US-Saudi Navy in the Persian Gulf. The passage of Iranian troops by Iraq through its territory is also unlikely, although it is taken into account by the General Staff of the KSA.

The Iranian Air Force has 320 combat aircraft and 100 attack helicopters (224 and 75 in service), and the missile forces - 52-78 launchers of ballistic missiles (BR). Incl. 12-18 launchers OTRK R-300E / M (300/100 missiles with a firing range of 300/550 km), 12-13 launchers OTRK / BRMD Shehab-1/2 (100/300 missiles - 350/750 km) and 12 launchers IRBM Shehab-3 / 3В (300 missiles - 1280/1930 km). In total, there are 36-48 launchers and 1100 missiles with a warhead of 0.6-1 tons and a CEP of 0.5-2 km, capable of hitting targets in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi Arabian Air Force has 338 combat aircraft (268 in service), 12 attack helicopters, and the missile forces - 8-12 DF-3 launchers with 40-60 BR.

From Iranian air bases in the city of Bushehr and on about. Kharq is 640 km from the KSA capital Riyadh (this corresponds to the range of the Iranian F-4D / E and Su-24 strike aircraft). However, these bases are only 280-320 km from Saudi Arabia's oil terminals Ras Tanura and Al Khobar, and even closer to Saudi Arabia's oil and gas platforms in the Persian Gulf.

The Iranian Air Force has almost the same number of combat aircraft as Saudi Arabia, but they are outdated, and their combat readiness is low (224 units are in service, and according to other sources up to 100). The KSA Air Force is equipped with modern Western combat aircraft with effective weapons, their operations are supported by AWACS, EW aircraft and tankers. In addition, Saudi Arabia has a powerful air defense system against aviation, so Iranian strikes on KSA facilities will most likely be carried out not by aircraft, but by ballistic missiles (BM R-300E / M and Shehab-1 can hit the ports of Ras-Tannura and Al-Khobar, Shehab-2 - Riyadh, and Shehab-3 / ZV - the entire territory of the kingdom).

The Iranian Navy has 3 submarines (plus over 20 small ones), 7 corvettes, 25 missile and 130 patrol boats, 13 small landing ships and 3 marine brigades (7.6 thousand people), as well as many coastal SCRC batteries. The latter include the Nasr-1, G-8D2 and Noor-2 complexes (range 35, 120 and 130 km), since 2006 Noor-3 SCRC (170 km) have been arriving, since 2011 - Qader, Raad and Khalij Fars (200 , 360 and 300 km). Of particular danger are the Khalij Fars SCRC with quasi-ballistic missiles (warhead 650 kg, electro-optical guidance). Mobile batteries of the SCRC are located on the Iranian coast, and stationary batteries are located on the islands (Farsi, Sirri, Abu Mussa, Larak, etc.), as well as on oil platforms. The width of the Persian Gulf (200-320 km) and the Strait of Hormuz (60-100 km) allows the Iranian SCRC to create a serious threat to the ships of the US Navy, Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. And finally, Iran can massively use cheap mine weapons - they can be very effective.

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The KSA Navy has 7 frigates (deployed in the Red Sea), 4 corvettes, 9 missile, 56 patrol and 8 landing boats, a regiment of marines (3 thousand people), as well as 4 coastal SCRC batteries.

The Iranian Navy has a quantitative superiority in submarines (they are not in the KSA), in missile boats (2.8 times) and patrol boats (2.3 times), the KSA Navy - in warships (1.6 times). Iranian Navy ships have weak air defense systems.

The number of anti-ship missiles on the ships and boats of Iran and the KSA is approximately the same (128 and 124). The naval forces of the KSA have a qualitative superiority. However, the presence of a large number of small submarines, small boats with light Kowsar SCRCs and ATGMs, as well as batteries of long-range coastal defense SCRCs ensures the superiority of the Iranian Navy over the Saudi Arabian Navy. But the superiority of the air force of the kingdom levels it.

In addition, in Saudi Arabia at the airbase. Prince Sultan can be based aircraft of the US Air Force F-15, F-16 and F-22. Other US bases are located nearby: two in Bahrain (Air Force - Sheikh Isa and Navy in Manama), and one in Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base, where there are 3.5 thousand American troops and weapons depots for a heavy combat brigade group ). Two US Navy aircraft carrier strike groups are constantly present in the Persian Gulf (2 aircraft carriers with 110 F / A-18 attack fighters; 4 cruisers, 6-7 destroyers and 4 submarines with 755-803 Tomahawk cruise missiles). An expeditionary battalion of marines (up to 2,000 people) is stationed on landing ships. All this almost excludes the possibility of an amphibious operation of the Iranian Armed Forces in Saudi Arabia,

In addition, the rapid strengthening of the Saudi-American grouping can provide assistance to the Armed Forces of the UAE and other GCC countries.

In December 2012, at the GCC summit, an agreement was reached on the creation of a unified military command, which would have to lead the actions of the combined forces of the allies. The basis of the new structure will be the "Shield of the Peninsula" forces, the number of which is expected to be increased to 30 thousand people.

To date, the military integration processes the greatest progress was made in the field of air defense. On the basis of the Saudi air defense system, a joint air defense system "Belt of the Peninsula" was created. Its capabilities allow monitoring the airspace of the GCC countries and adjacent areas, as well as better coordinating the actions of air defense forces. The system is capable of providing simultaneous tracking of several hundred aircraft. At the same time, national air defense ground forces and fighter aircraft are not integrated into this system. The Peninsula Belt interacts with the US Air Force Regional Air Operations Control Center located in Qatar,

A comparison of the Iranian Air Force and the GCC shows that if the former have 320 combat aircraft and 100 attack helicopters (224 and 75 in service), then the latter have 685 combat aircraft and 115 attack helicopters (525 modern F-15, F-16, F-18 , Typhoon, Tornado, Mirage2000 and 58 modern AN-64s). At the same time, the GCC Air Force has more efficient aircraft and helicopters with better weapons, which are also provided with AWACS, EW aircraft and tankers. A significant part of Iranian aircraft is outdated and is experiencing a serious shortage of spare parts. However, the possibility of joint effective actions of the SSAGPS Air Force is in question.

A comparison of the Iranian Navy and the GCC shows that if the former have 3 submarines (and over 20 small ones), 7 corvettes and 25 missile boats, then the latter have 14 frigates, 8 corvettes and 42 missile boats. The qualitative superiority of the ship's composition is also on the side of the GCC. But, as in the case of the Air Force, the possibility of joint effective actions of the GCC Navy is in question.

In terms of quantitative and qualitative composition, the US Air Force and Navy groups in the Persian Gulf, as well as the GCC Air Force and Navy, have an overwhelming superiority over the Iranian forces. Therefore, an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia is possible only in the event of an American air attack against Iran and in the form of an asymmetric retaliatory strike with Shehab ballistic missiles at gas and oil production sites, terminals and other facilities, as well as in the form of sabotage by special forces, submarines and boats.

Saudi Arabia has Patriot air defense systems, but, not being included in a special missile defense system, they are unable to intercept Iranian Shehab missiles. Therefore, at present, with the help of the United States, a regional GCC missile defense system is being created, which is designed to protect oil and gas production sites, terminals and other important facilities. It will include AEGIS ballistic missile detection radars deployed on US Navy cruisers and destroyers in the Persian Gulf and integrated with US PAC-3 air defense systems in Qatar (2 batteries, 12 launchers) and Kuwait (2 batteries, 16 launchers), as well as air defense systems RAS-2 Saudi Arabia (20 batteries, 160 launchers) and ADMS RAS-2/3 UAE (2 batteries, 10 launchers). The UAE ordered the latest THAAD air defense systems (2 batteries, 6 launchers) from the United States, which should be delivered in 2014, and Qatar - Patriot PAC-3 missile defense / air defense systems (11 batteries, 44 launchers) and THAAD missile defense systems (2 batteries , 12 PU).

However, even without inflicting air and missile strikes on targets in Saudi Arabia, but simply by blocking the passage of Saudi tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with the help of minefields and coastal SCRC batteries, Iran will cause enormous damage to the economy of the kingdom.

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The execution in Saudi Arabia of 47 "terrorists", including the Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, led to very serious consequences - now the entire region of the Middle East is on the verge of a regional war. Moreover, what happened looks quite planned: the reaction of Iran and Iranian society was quite predictable, and the chain of breaks in diplomatic relations with the main Shiite country by the states of the “Islamic military coalition” (Saudi Arabia announced its creation in December 2015) look agreed in advance. On this moment Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United United Arab Emirates and Sudan, the ambassador from Tehran was recalled by Kuwait. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain cut off flights to Iran.

In fact, an indirect war between the "Sunni" and "Shia" worlds is already in full swing - the main battlefields have become Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Now there is a far from zero possibility of a major regional war between the Shiites, led by Iran, and the Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it will be interesting to assess the strength of the parties and the scale of what could happen in such an extremely negative scenario.

Saudi Arabia - "colossus with feet of clay"?

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are equipped with the most modern military equipment and in sufficient quantity. The country's military budget ranks 4th in the world, approaching $60 billion. armed forces is 233 thousand people. Ground forces are armed with up to 450 modern American tanks M1A2 Abrams, about 400 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, more than 2000 armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers, a large number of cannon and rocket artillery, including 50 American rocket systems salvo fire(MLRS) M270. In addition, the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces are armed with up to 60 Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles purchased from China. Initially, they are designed to deliver nuclear weapons over distances of up to 2500 km, but in this case they carry high-explosive warheads, and the accuracy of the missile is very low. There are also rumors about the purchase of more modern Dongfeng-21.

Concerning air force(Air Force), they are armed with 152 American F-15 fighters of various modifications, 81 European Tornado and 32 European Eurofighter Typhoon. Also in service are early warning and control aircraft (AWACS) and a large number of military transport aircraft.

Air defense is strong - 16 batteries anti-aircraft missile systems long-range PatriotPAC-2, numerous Hawk and Crotale air defense systems, hundreds of Stinger MANPADS, etc.

The naval forces are divided into 2 parts: the Western Fleet in the Red Sea and the Eastern Fleet in the Persian Gulf. In the Persian Gulf, there are 3 AlRiyadh class frigates (modernization of the French LaFayette) with Exocet MM40 block II anti-ship missiles (ASMs) with a launch range of up to 72 km. In the Red Sea, there are 4 Al Madinah-class frigates with Otomat Mk2 anti-ship missiles with a maximum launch range of up to 180 km, 4 American Badr-class corvettes with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Missile and patrol boats are evenly distributed across fleets. As for landing ships, there are 8 of them, and the maximum total landing force can be up to 800 people at a time.

As we can see, the armed forces are impressively equipped, but there is one problem: despite such equipment and numbers, Saudi Arabia has not been able to achieve any serious success in neighboring Yemen for 10 months, in which they are opposed by the Houthi rebel army, armed with outdated weapons . This shows how low the actual combat capability of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and their allies is.

Iranian Armed Forces are the largest in the region

The Iranian Armed Forces have a strength of 550 thousand people - the largest in the region. At the same time, the military budget in 2015 amounted to about $ 10 billion, which is quite small for such a number. There are more than 1600 tanks in service, of which about 480 are relatively modern T-72Z and 150 Zulfiqar tanks own production(presumably based on the T-72 and the American M60). combat vehicles infantry and armored personnel carriers are represented by hundreds of obsolete and outdated Soviet models, as well as artillery.

Air Force represented big amount aircraft of various classes and different countries of production. True, there are no new products among them, and the long sanctions period has certainly affected the combat readiness of aviation - hardly more than 50% of them are in flight condition. They are armed with American F-14 supersonic interceptors, long-obsolete F-4 Phantom and F-5Tiger fighters, French Mirage-F1. Of the Soviet vehicles, there are MiG-29 fighters, Su-24 front-line bombers, and Su-25 attack aircraft. In total, there are about 300 units of the above equipment.

As for the air defense system, fundamental changes are taking place here - a few years ago, Tor-M1 short-range air defense systems were purchased from Russia, and deliveries of S-300 PMU-2 long-range air defense systems began. Thus, very soon Iran will not yield to Saudi Arabia in this aspect.

As for the Navy, the diversity here is noticeably greater than that of Saudi Arabia. In addition, most of the ships are concentrated in the Persian Gulf (a small part of the ships are in the Caspian Sea). There are 3 Project 877 Halibut submarines, 26 more locally produced small submarines carrying mines and torpedoes, 5 frigates, 6 corvettes (all of their own production), more than 50 missile boats (Chinese, Iranian and German production). Interestingly, all Iranian missile ships use Chinese-made anti-ship missiles - S-701 (range 35 km, anti-submarine) and YJ-82 (range up to 120 km).

Thus, Iran has an advantage over a potential adversary in terms of the Navy. In addition, as a result of many years of existence under economic sanctions, Iran has its own military-industrial complex - perhaps its products do not differ in any great characteristics, nevertheless, they provide the country with some independence from external supplies. The missile program has achieved quite a lot of success - the country is armed with a number of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, etc. In total, their number can exceed 200-300 units.

The most likely scenario is a further increase in the intensity of conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen

Geographical position not very conducive to the start of a direct military clash between countries - Saudi Arabia and Iran do not border each other. Therefore, the parties are likely to increase their involvement in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This will not lead to anything good for these countries, but will only prolong the hybrid wars going on in them even more. The Truth for Saudi Arabia weak point"may turn out to be Yemen - despite the 150 thousandth ground group, 185 aviation units (including allies), the operation against the Houthis does not lead to any results. The reason for this is both the very low combat capability of the Saudi Armed Forces and the competent actions of the rebels, who are probably supported by Iranian specialists. If this support increases (technically it is not easy, since Iran can maintain communication with Yemen only by sea), coupled with the presence of Shiites densely residing in Saudi Arabia, this situation could lead to disaster for Riyadh. In any case, such a scenario is a further stage of the war of attrition - a war that is also combined with the struggle for oil markets, as a result of which everyone increases the production of "black gold" and knocks down prices on the exchanges. In such a scenario, the side that “breaks” earlier will lose.

Full-scale war - chaos for many years?

If all the same, a full-scale war breaks out, then the main "battlefields" will be the Persian Gulf, and probably the territory of Iraq and Kuwait (they are located between Saudi Arabia and Iran). At the same time, Qatar is clearly an ally of the Saudis, and the current authorities of Iraq are allies of the Iranians. Despite the apparent superiority of Saudi Arabia and its allies, Iran has several trump cards - it controls the Strait of Hormuz and does not have a war in the rear, near its borders (like Yemen for the Saudis). The Iranian Navy quite allows to "slam" the strait for the passage of any enemy ships. Such a move would spell economic disaster for the Gulf countries that are part of the coalition against Iran, while the Iranians themselves would be able to continue exporting oil. In addition to stopping the receipt of money from the sale of oil, which is still one way or another a temporary factor, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other Gulf countries may lose all their sales markets, which the United States, Russia and all the same Iran.

If the war drags on, it will have absolutely unpredictable results - both sides will strike each other with ballistic missiles (here Iran will inflict more damage), try to "set fire" to local opposition forces, set neighboring countries against each other. All this can finally destroy the Middle East that we know and in a few years lead to the formation of a completely different map of the region.

The most important question that arises is what will Saudi Arabia's big Sunni allies like Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey do. Pakistan's direct involvement in the conflict seems extremely unlikely as the country has a "longtime friend" in India and being distracted by major conflicts with someone else could be suicidal. Turkey can intensify its actions in Syria and Iraq, and, given the rather aggressive policy inherent in this country, intervene in the conflict. This could be of great help to the Saudis, but the Kurdish forces in Turkey may well seize the moment and strike from within. As for Egypt, the country is far enough away from a possible theater of operations and is unlikely to interfere more than it does now (at the moment the country is participating in the blockade of the coast of Yemen).

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (left) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

Iran and Saudi Arabia have long claimed a leading role in the region, but recently relations between the two countries have seriously deteriorated.

Each of them has its allies and opponents in the Middle East and beyond, what does the alignment of forces look like?

Saudi Arabia

This kingdom with a predominantly Sunni population is considered the birthplace of Islam, and it is there that the main Muslim shrines are located. In addition, it is also one of the world's leading oil exporters and one of the richest countries in the world.

Saudi Arabia fears that Iran may take a dominant position in the Middle East, and in every possible way prevents the growing influence of this Shiite country in the region.

Saudi Arabia's belligerent attitude toward Iran appears to be supported by Donald Trump, who has taken an equally tough stance against Tehran.

The young and increasingly powerful Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is waging war against Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen. The Saudis claim that Iran is providing material assistance to the rebels, Tehran denies these accusations.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia leads coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen

Saudi Arabia, in turn, supports the rebels in Syria and seeks the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, Iran's main ally.

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are among the most powerful in the region, and Riyadh is among the world's main importers of weapons. The Saudi army has 227 thousand people.

Iran

Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 when the Shah's regime was overthrown. political power captured by the clerics, led by the supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

Most of Iran's 80 million people are Shiite Muslims, and the country is considered the leading Shiite power in the region. The final decision in all matters of foreign and domestic policy is taken by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Over the past 10 years, Iran's influence in the region has greatly increased, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.

Iran supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the war against opposition groups and the Islamic State extremist group [banned in Russia and other countries]. The fighters of the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps participated in offensive operations against Sunni jihadists in Syria and Iraq.

Iran also believes that Saudi Arabia is trying to destabilize the situation in Lebanon, where the government includes the Shia movement Hezbollah, which enjoys the support of Iran.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a major military, economic and political force in Iran.

Iran sees the United States as its main adversary.

According to some reports, Iran has some of the most advanced missile systems in the region. The armed forces of Iran number 534 thousand people, including the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

USA

Relations between the US and Iran remain strained, to put it mildly. There are many reasons for this, including the overthrow of the Iranian prime minister in 1953 with the participation of the CIA, islamic revolution in Iran, as well as the hostage-taking at the American embassy in Tehran in the 80s.

For its part, Saudi Arabia has always remained a US ally, although relations have been very strained under the Obama administration, given Washington's policy of engagement with Iran.

President Trump has pledged to take a tougher stance on Iran and is now threatening to cancel the historic Tehran nuclear deal signed under Obama.

At the same time, the royal house of Saudi Arabia and the White House treat each other with great respect.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the support of the United States

Trump and his administration never criticize radical Saudi Islam the way they criticize Iran's ties to terrorism. Nor were Saudis included in the list of foreign nationals subject to the much-controversial ban on entry into the United States.

Donald Trump made his first trip as president to the Middle East, where he met with Saudi and Israeli leaders, who are united by the desire to prevent the growth of Iranian influence in the region.

Saudi Arabia is also a major buyer American armaments.

Russia

Russia is the only one that manages to remain an ally of both Saudi Arabia and Iran. With each of these countries, she has established close economic ties, in addition, she sells weapons to both countries.

Russia has not taken any side in the current dispute between Tehran and Riyadh, making it clear that it is ready to act as a mediator.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption According to Vladimir Putin, the Syrian army, with the support of Russian aviation, has already liberated more than 90% of the country's territory from militants.

Russia's involvement in Middle East affairs has been preserved since cold war when the Soviet Union supplied weapons to Syria and trained its officers.

Moscow's influence on Syria and the region as a whole has noticeably weakened after the collapse of the USSR, but the Kremlin has been carefully building it up lately.

The air support provided to the Syrian army by Russian aircraft helped turn the tide of the Syrian war in favor of the Assad regime and the pro-Iranian fighters who fought on its side.

Türkiye

Turkey is deftly balancing between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while the military and political situation in the Middle East is rapidly changing.

Ankara began to show more interest in the situation in the region after the often called Islamist Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002.

Sunni-majority Turkey has developed close ties with Saudi Arabia based on religious kinship and shared opposition to the Syrian government.

Despite a deep mistrust of Iran, Turkey has relatively recently formed an alliance with it against the growing influence of the Kurds in the region, which both countries see as a threat.

Image copyright ADEM ALTAN Image caption Turkish President decides to support Qatar in its confrontation with Saudi Arabia

Israel

Israel, founded in 1948, of all the Arab countries has established diplomatic relations only with Egypt and Jordan.

Iran and Israel are considered irreconcilable enemies. Iran denies Israel's right to exist and calls for the destruction of the state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always actively called on the international community to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to cancel the nuclear deal with Tehran in order to curb its "aggressive" policy in the region.

According to Netanyahu, cooperation has even been established with a number of Arab countries in order to prevent the growth of Iran's influence in the region. In turn, Saudi Arabia denied reports that appeared in the Israeli media that in September one of the Saudi princes secretly came to negotiate with Israel.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on "bravely speaking out against the Iranian terrorist regime"

Egypt

Egypt has often played a key role in Middle East politics, and has historically enjoyed more friendly relations with Saudi Arabia than with Iran, especially since the Islamic Revolution.

The Saudis also supported the Egyptian army when it removed Islamist President Mohammed Morsi from power in 2013.

However, Egypt had cases of rapprochement with Iran. For example, Tehran sponsored an oil deal between Egypt and Iraq after the Saudi company Aramco cut off oil supplies to Egypt in October 2016.

After increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for "avoiding the escalation of tension in the region, but not to the detriment of security and stability in the Persian Gulf."

Image copyright DON EMMERT Image caption "The national security of the Gulf countries is National security Egypt. I believe in the wise and firm leadership of Saudi Arabia," the Egyptian President said.

Syria

The government of President Bashar al-Assad has firmly taken the side of Iran in the confrontation with Saudi Arabia.

Iran has always supported the Syrian leadership and assisted the Syrian army in the fight against rebels and jihadists.

Iran sees Assad, who belongs to the Alawite branch of Shiism, as its closest Arab ally. Syria is also the main transit point for Iranian weapons to the Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thousands of Hezbollah fighters are fighting on the side of the Syrian government forces. According to experts, due to the level of training and weapons, this group can already be considered a full-fledged army, rather than a militia.

Syrian authorities also often accuse Saudi Arabia of subversive policies in the Middle East.

Image copyright STRINGER Image caption Syrian troops slowly but surely retake territory from IS militants

Lebanon

Lebanon's position in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be called ambivalent.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia a few days ago, has close ties to the Saudis and supports them in their confrontation with Iran.

On the other hand, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah is an ally of Iran and enjoys its unwavering and substantial support. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah often attacks the Saudi authorities.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Prime Minister Saad Hariri supported the Saudis, but there are staunch supporters of Iran in Lebanon

Gulf states

In the past, Gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have had closer relations with Saudi Arabia.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia demands greater efforts from Qatar in the fight against extremism and terrorism

However, Qatar's ties with Saudi Arabia have noticeably weakened after Qatar refused to comply with Riyadh's demand and break off relations with Tehran at the beginning of the year.

After Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain declared a blockade on Qatar in July, Iran sent five planeloads of groceries there to deal with the shortfall.

In August, Qatar and Iran fully restored diplomatic relations, interrupted after Iranian attacks on two diplomatic missions of Saudi Arabia were carried out.

At the same time, Bahrain and Kuwait continue to lean towards Saudi Arabia.

The main political and military posts in Bahrain are held by members of the Sunni royal family, while 70% of the country's population is Shia.

Bahrain has repeatedly accused Iran of preparing "terror cells" that operate in the country to prepare to overthrow the government. He also accuses the Shia opposition of maintaining ties with Iran.

In October, the Bahraini authorities said that "their country is suffering the most from the expansionist policies of the guards of the Islamic revolution."

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Emir of Kuwait offered to mediate talks between Doha and Riyadh

Although Kuwait does not participate in the blockade of Qatar, its authorities have abandoned the alliance with Iran and now side with Saudi Arabia.

In February, Kuwait called for improved Arab-Iranian relations, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited the country for the first time since the 2013 elections.

However, due to the crisis in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait expelled 15 Iranian diplomats from the country and closed the military, cultural and trade mission of Iran.

From the moment when a person picked up a stick, he realized that through violence you can dictate your will. Since that time, the development of martial arts began. Thus, after a large amount of time, the army has become one of the main attributes of any state. If we recall the entire human history, then up to the 21st century, constant military conflicts took place on the territory of the entire planet. As a result of them, new territories were conquered, political regimes changed, new religions appeared, etc. In addition, military operations in themselves are quite profitable for individuals. However, the destructiveness of wars became clear after World War II. People clearly saw what the furious progress of the military craft, as well as its direct use, could lead to. Frightened for the integrity of the entire planet, the world community decides to change military trends.

Of course, it was not possible to get rid of wars completely. Today, military conflicts still occur in different parts of the Earth, but they have a purely local level. In addition, the armies of some states began to be created solely for defense, and not to promote their ideas through war. One of these formations is the army of Saudi Arabia, which will be discussed later in the article.

Saudi Arabia: general information

Air Defense Forces;

Strategic Missile Forces;

National Guard.

Each element of the Saudi Arabian army has its own characteristics and specific features.

Ground forces

The army of Saudi Arabia, whose combat effectiveness is due to a greater extent to its ground forces and air defense, has about 80 thousand personnel in this sector. In addition, the ground forces are directly subordinate to the General Staff. The structure of this element of the aircraft is rather surprising. Given that there are only 80 thousand personnel, this does not prevent the ground forces from including many brigades, namely: armored, mechanized, airborne, eight divisional, as well as troops protecting the border. The armament of this component of the army is also at the proper level. As part of the ground forces, it has 1055 tanks, 400 mortars, 970 infantry fighting vehicles and about 300 armored vehicles.

Naval Forces

The army in Saudi Arabia also has a navy in its structure. The tasks of this sector include the protection of territorial waters, the coast, the sea shelf, oil infrastructure facilities, etc. Many scientists do not understand why this state needs a Navy. The fact is that the country is washed by water from two sides. To the west is the Red Sea, and to the northeast is the Persian Gulf. Thus, if desired, it is quite possible to attack the state from the water. It should be noted that the main reason why the naval forces were created was the capture of some of the islands belonging to Saudi Arabia by the Iranian Shah. The United States of America took up the modernization of the Navy, in accordance with the agreement signed between the countries. Already in 1991, this element of the armed forces had 9.5 thousand people in its personnel.

To date, the number of Saudi Arabia has about 15.5 thousand people. This also includes 3,000 Marines. Military-technical cooperation has not yet lost its popularity for Saudi Arabia. To date, the state actively maintains relations with Great Britain, Italy, France, and the United States.

Country Air Force

It should be noted that Saudi Arabia has the second largest air fleet after Israel. The army is the strongest, of course, not in this state, however, in terms of aviation, the country does not lag behind, but, on the contrary, surpasses many. First, it is necessary to note the technical potential of the country. The fleet is represented by efficient A-15 aircraft for combat missions. Secondly, the number is 20,000 people. In addition, combat capability in the field air defense Saudi Arabia proved it in 1984 when there was a conflict with Iran. In addition, the Air Force of the state proved to be excellent in the operation against Iraq, which was called "Desert Storm".

It should be noted that the leadership of the state actively controls the process of replenishing the armed forces with new personnel, especially when it comes to the air force. This is evidenced by the fact that in Saudi Arabia there is a special Aviation Academy named after King Faisal. It is located at the air base in Al-Kharj. Airfields are located throughout the state, especially near the borders with other countries. This allows you to effectively defend yourself in the event of an unforeseen intrusion.

Strategic Missile Forces

Saudi Arabia has the greatest power. Their combat effectiveness is due to some basic factors. First of all, it should be noted that this military group of Saudi Arabia is armed with ballistic missiles of the DF-3 type. In addition, in 2014, a rumor leaked to the press that the state had acquired from the Chinese People's Republic the new kind ballistic missiles, such as DF-21. The US authorities, represented by the Central Intelligence Agency, confirmed this rumor, indicating that the deal was carried out in 2007. There are also about 5 missile bases throughout Saudi Arabia. The headquarters of this element of the armed forces is located in Riyadh. In 2013 the command missile forces located in a new luxurious building, which was opened in parallel with the Academy of Strategic Missile Forces.

Rumors of nuclear weapons

Today, there are many rumors in the world about the existence of nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia. There is no confirmation of this information, as well as reports on the exact number of strategic missile forces, which raises a lot of questions. Thus, it cannot be said that the Saudi Arabian army is weak, because there is simply no exact information about it. However, according to the statements of the ruling elite, namely King Abdullah and Prince Turki ibn Faisal Al Saud, the state is striving with all its might to acquire nuclear weapons, which will become a countermeasure against the nuclear program of the state of Iran.

There are also many rumors that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan allegedly entered into a secret agreement, according to which the latter side can provide weapons to the state mentioned in the article in the event of a military crisis in the East.

Conclusion

So, in the article, the author examined the structure, armament, characteristic features of the Armed Forces, and also answered the question of what the army of Saudi Arabia is. The rating of this military formation, of course, is not as high as that of the armed forces of Russia or the United States. Nevertheless, the army of this state is quite capable of defending the independence and territorial integrity of its fatherland.

The SouthFront think tank recently released a very interesting video about the possibility of a war involving Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Syria, Iran, and Israel. This, of course, also means that Russia and the United States will take part in this war.

Now let's move on to what this scenario means.

Context: total failure of the Anglo-Zionist Empire on all fronts

To understand the context of these events, we first need to take a brief look at what has happened in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East in recent years.

The original Anglo-Zionist plan was to overthrow Assad and replace him with mad Takfirists (Daesh/ISIS*, Al-Qaeda**, Al-Nusra***). Thus, it was planned to solve the following tasks:

1. Sweep away the strong secular Arab state, along with its political culture, military and security services.
2. Generate total chaos and horror in Syria, which would justify the creation by Israel of a "safety zone" not only in the Golan, but also further north.
3. Start the mechanism of civil war in Lebanon by inciting the Takfirists against Hezbollah.
4. Give the Takfirists and Hezbollah the chance to bleed to death and then create a "safe zone" - this time in Lebanon.
5. Prevent the creation of a "Shiite axis" Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
6. Partition of Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
7. Creation of Kurdistan, then to use it against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
8. To give Israel the opportunity to become an unquestioned influential player and force Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and everyone else to turn to Israel for permission to implement any oil and gas projects.
9. Gradually isolate Iran, threaten it, undermine it and eventually attack it with a broad regional coalition.
10. Remove all centers of Shiite power in the Middle East.

It was an ambitious plan, but the Israelis were quite confident that their US vassal state would provide all the resources needed to achieve it. And now that plan has collapsed thanks to the high effectiveness of an informal but nonetheless formidable alliance between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

To say that the Israelis are seething with rage and in a state of total panic would be an understatement. Do you think I'm exaggerating? Then look at it from Israel's point of view:

The Syrian state has survived, and its armed forces and security services are now much more combat-ready than they were before the start of the war. Remember how they "almost" lost the war at first? The Syrians were forced to retreat, they had to learn some very hard lessons, but, by all appearances, they achieved a lot. At a critical moment, Iran and Hezbollah were literally "plugging holes" on the fronts in Syria and "putting out fires" in many places. Now the Syrians are doing a great job of freeing large territories and cities. Today, not only Syria has become stronger, but Iran and Hezbollah have occupied the entire country. And this plunges the Israelis into a state of panic and rage. Lebanon remains stable. Even the recent attempt by the Saudis to kidnap Prime Minister Hariri failed. Syria will remain a unitary state, and the state of Kurdistan will not appear. Millions of displaced persons and refugees are returning home. Israel and the United States look like absolute idiots and, worse, losers who have no confidence left.

All this is a disaster for the Anglo-Zionists, who, in retreat, resort to their typical tactics: if we cannot control something, then let's destroy it.

Plan: force the US to attack Iraq

I have no way of knowing what the Axis of Good (USA-Israel-Saudi Arabia) has come up with, but I feel I can make an educated guess. First of all, this is nothing new. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have spoken out in the past in favor of intervention in Syria, and we know that the Saudis have invaded Bahrain and Yemen. As for the Israelis. Their track record of utterly criminal military interventions is so long that we can safely say that the Israelis will engage in "any" terrible and evil plan that will reduce this region to rubble.

For the Saudis and Israelis, the problem is that they have a bad military. Dear ones, yes. High tech, yes. But their problem is that their only area of ​​expertise is the slaughter of defenseless civilians. In this they are real experts. But in terms of actual combat, especially against a truly formidable enemy like the Iranians or Hezbollah, the Sio-Wahhabis (what a combination!) have no chance, and they know it, even if they never are not recognized.

Imagine how frustrating this must be - you basically control the US, which you turned into a vassal state, you spent billions and billions of dollars on arming and training your bloated military, and in the end the Shiites just laugh at you in face. And - for some reason you can't fathom - whenever you try to "teach them a lesson," it's you who has to crawl home in complete disgrace to lick your wounds and try to cover up the extent of your defeat. This is both very painful and very humiliating. So, it is simply necessary to invent at least some kind of plan to make the Shiites pay a high price.

And here's what I think the plan will be.

First, the goal will not be to defeat Hezbollah or Iran somewhere. For all their racist rhetoric and arrogance, the Israelis know that neither they nor the Saudis can seriously threaten Iran or even Hezbollah. Their plan, I think, is much cruder - to start a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.

I have repeatedly explained that the US military does not have the means to win the war against Iran. And therein may be the problem - American commanders know very well this is why they do everything to prove to the neocons “forgive me, but we can’t!” This is the only reason why the US attack on Iran did not take place. From the Israeli point of view, this is completely unacceptable, and the solution is simple - just force the US to take part in a war that they don't really want. After all, who cares how many gentile Americans die? As far as the Iranians are concerned, the purpose of the Israeli-instigated US attack on Iran is not to defeat Iran, but only to damage it. Very, very big damage. This is the real goal.

As for the Israelis, they not only don't care how many non-Jews die, as long as their Master Race benefits from it. Simply put, we are just tools for them; tools capable of thinking, but still tools. And of course, neocons look at us the same way.

In fact, I can imagine the jubilation of Israelis when they see Shiite and Sunni Muslims killing each other. If a few Christians are killed, it's only better.

So, it's simple - let the Saudis attack Lebanon and / or Iran. You watch them fail, then you turn on the propaganda machine at full blast and explain to the average TV-watching goy that Iran is a threat to the entire region, that it is the aggressor here, that the Saudis are only protecting themselves from Iranian aggression. . And if that's not enough, then they in the US Congress squeal " oy gevalt! "**** and prostitutes on Capitol Hill at their behest explain to the American people that the US must 'lead the Free World' to 'defend' the 'only democracy in the Middle East' against Iranian 'aggression', which the US is bringing" responsibility" in preventing the "seizure of Saudi oil fields" by Iran, etc., etc.

For the Israelis, this is a win-win situation on all sides, as long as they are not caught red-handed in their manipulation. But we can count on our beloved Sio-media that no "anti-Semitic" accusations will ever be made, even if Israel's imprints are everywhere.

counterplan

Iranians don't have a good choice. The least bad option for them is to do what Putin is doing in the Donbass - to remain outwardly passive, risking being accused by those who are not very gifted of giving up. But be that as it may - if your opponent plans not to win, but to lose, then it makes sense to refuse to enter into a confrontation with him, at least at a strategic level and for a short time.

I am not suggesting that the Iranians give up resistance on a tactical level. Even the grouping of Russian military forces in Syria has an official order to defend itself in case of an attack. I'm talking about the strategic level. As tempting as it may be, the Iranians should refrain from retaliating against Saudi Arabia. The same is true for Israel. It's ironic that Iran cannot do what Hezbollah did in 2006.***** The reason for this is simple - by the time the first Hezbollah missiles started falling on Israel, the Israelis had already reached top level escalation (as always in such cases, the civilian population pays for everything).

But in the case of Iran, the Anglo-Zionist Empire can raise the level of violence far beyond what the Israelis and Saudis can provide on their own. The combined power of Israel and Saudi Arabia is nothing compared to the firepower that the United States (CENTCOM + NATO) can oppose to Iran. It is therefore critical that the Iranians provide no pretext for the Americans to formally join in the attack. Instead of destroying the regime in Riyadh, the Iranians should allow - or at least help - the regime in Riyadh to destroy itself. I think that the Saudis have much less chance to survive than the US or Israel. Therefore, there is no need to force the outbreak of war between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Needless to say, if the Anglo-Zionist Empire joins the hostilities against Iran and unleashes all its military power against that country - which I consider a very real possibility - then all bets are off and Iran must, and will, respond with a full range of symmetrical and asymmetric responses, including strikes against Israel and Saudi Arabia, and even against CENTCOM bases across the region. However, such a situation would be disastrous for Iran and should therefore be avoided if at all possible.

In the end, the world's greatest hope is that some American patriot, through the haze of the dog-wags conspiracy, will see the heart of the matter and tell the Sio-Wahhabis "not on my watch" - as the admiral did Fallon in 2007.****** Maybe this worthy person will receive the historical recognition that he deserves, say, in the form of the Nobel Peace Prize?

By themselves, the Israelis and Saudis are just a bunch of medieval bandits that even Hezbollah terrifies and puts to flight. The only real power they have is the power of the US Congress and the Sio-media, the power of corruption, the power of the ability and ability to lie and betray. I know for a fact that at all levels of the US military there are many American officers who clearly see through this Zionist smokescreen. They remain loyal to the United States, not to the Zionist Territorial Entity in Palestine. Together with such patriots I served and worked. Many of them are subscribers of my blog.

I'm not saying that we should count on top US military leaders to refuse to obey the president's orders. Anyone who has served in the military, especially in high command positions (Pentagon, CENTCOM), knows that there are many different creative ways to make sure that this or that order is not carried out. And finally, I have not completely lost hope that Trump, after all, can do the right thing. Yes, he is weak. Yes, now he is cornered and has no allies left. But when he faces the dire consequences of an attack on Iran, he will still be able to say no and order his headquarters to come up with a different plan. Trump may also realize that not going to war with Iran could be the best revenge on those who have slandered him and who now seem to be trying to impeach him.

Conclusions: Will there be an attack?

In short, probably yes. The simple truth is that the crazy regimes in power in Israel and Saudi Arabia are cornered and in a state of despair. And the inability of the Sio-Wahhabis to force even tiny Qatar to obey speaks to the decay of power within these regimes. I believe that the recent visits to Moscow by Bibi Netanyahu and even the king of Saudi Arabia were part of an effort to measure the likely Russian reaction in the event of an attack on Iran.

It is unlikely that we will know what was said behind closed doors. But it seems to me that Putin has made it clear to the Sio-Wahhabis that Russia will not stand aside and will not allow them to strike at Iran. In truth, Russia has a very limited set of options. Russia cannot simply participate in a war in an open and formal way, unless Russian personnel are directly attacked. It would be too dangerous, especially against the US. But Russia can significantly (and very quickly) bolster Iranian air defenses by stationing its A-50 and MiG-31 aircraft in Iran or sending them on reconnaissance flights from airfields in Russian territory.

Russia can provide the Iranians with intelligence that the Iranians themselves will never be able to obtain. The Russians may covertly place some of their electronic warfare systems at key points within Iranian territory. The Americans will quickly discover this, but at the political level, the Russians will still have the possibility of "plausible deniability". After all, the Russians can do for Iran what they have already done for Syria and integrate all Iranian and Russian air defense systems into a single network. This will significantly enhance the capabilities of Iran's current rather modest, but rapidly improving, air defense systems.

It is now quite clear that an attack on Iran is being prepared. This attack is possible and even probable. But this is not yet a settled issue. Both the Saudis and the Israelis have made empty threats many times. For all their feigned courage, they actually understand that Iran is a formidable and very sophisticated adversary. They may also remember what happened when the Iraqis - with the full cooperation and support of the United States, Soviet Union, France, Britain and all the rest - attacked Iran when Iran was weak. A long and terrible war ensued, but Iran is stronger than ever. Saddam Hussein is dead and the Iranians are more or less in control of Iraq. Iran is simply not the right country to attack, especially in the absence of a clear vision of what "victory" is. To attack Iran, you need to go crazy. The problem, however, is that the Saudis and Israelis have gone mad. And they have proven this many times. So, we can only hope that they have “gone crazy”, but “not so much”. Hope is not great, but it's all we have.

Author(published under the pseudonym The Saker) is a well-known blogger in the West. Born in Zurich (Switzerland). Father is Dutch, mother is Russian. He served as an analyst in the Swiss armed forces and in the research structures of the United Nations. Specializes in the study of post-Soviet states. Lives in Florida (USA).