Changing the system of international relations in the world. History of international relations and foreign policy

Some features of modern international relations deserve special attention. They characterize the new that distinguishes the international system that is being formed before our eyes from its previous states.
Intensive processes of globalization are among the most important characteristics of modern world development.
On the one hand, they are obvious evidence of the acquisition of a new quality by the international system - the quality of globality. On the other hand, their development has considerable costs for international relations. Globalization can manifest itself in authoritarian and hierarchical forms generated by the selfish interests and aspirations of the most developed states. There are fears that globalization makes them even stronger, while the weak are doomed to complete and irreversible dependence.
Nevertheless, it does not make sense to oppose globalization, no matter how good the motives may be guided by it. This process has deep objective prerequisites. An appropriate analogy is the movement of society from traditionalism to modernization, from a patriarchal community to urbanization.
Globalization brings a number of important features to international relations. It makes the world whole, increasing its ability to respond effectively to the problems of a general nature, which in the XXI century. become increasingly important for international political development. Interdependence, growing as a result of globalization, can serve as a basis for overcoming differences between countries, a powerful incentive for developing mutually acceptable solutions.
At the same time, some phenomena associated with globalization - unification with its impersonality and loss of individual characteristics, erosion of identity, weakening of national-state possibilities for regulating society, fears about one's own competitiveness - can cause bouts of self-isolation, autarky, and protectionism as a defensive reaction.
In the long term, this kind of choice will doom any country to a permanent lag, pushing it to the sidelines of mainstream development. But here, as in many other areas, the pressure of opportunistic motives can be very, very strong, providing political support for the line on "protection from globalization."
Therefore, one of the nodes of internal tension in the emerging international political system is the conflict between globalization and the national identity of individual states. All of them, as well as the international system as a whole, are faced with the need to find an organic combination of these two principles, to combine them in the interests of maintaining sustainable development and international stability.
Similarly, in the context of globalization, there is a need to correct the idea of ​​the functional purpose of the international system. It, of course, must maintain its capacity in solving the traditional task of reducing to a common denominator the divergent or diverging interests and aspirations of states - to prevent clashes between them that are fraught with too serious cataclysms, to provide a way out of conflict situations, etc. But today the objective role of the international political system is becoming broader.
This is due to the new quality of the international system that is currently being formed - the presence in it of a significant component of global issues. The latter requires not so much the settlement of disputes as the determination of a joint agenda, not so much the minimization of disagreements as the maximization of mutual gain, not so much the determination of a balance of interests as the identification of a common interest.
Of course, "positive" tasks do not remove and do not replace all the others. Moreover, the predisposition of states to cooperate by no means always prevails over their concern for a specific balance of benefits and costs. Often, joint creative actions turn out to be unclaimed due to their low efficiency. Finally, they can be made impossible by a host of other circumstances - economic, internal political, etc. But the very existence of common problems gives rise to a certain focus on solving them jointly - giving the international political system a certain constructive core.
The most important areas of action on the global positive agenda are:
- overcoming poverty, fighting hunger, promoting social economic development the most backward countries and peoples;
- maintenance of ecological and climatic balance, minimization of negative impacts on the human habitat and the biosphere as a whole;
- solution of the largest global problems in the field of economy, science, culture, health care;
- prevention and minimization of the consequences of natural and man-made disasters, organization of rescue operations (including on humanitarian grounds);
- fight against terrorism, international crime and other manifestations of destructive activity;
- the organization of order in territories that have lost political and administrative control and are in the grip of anarchy that threatens international peace.
The successful experience of jointly solving such problems can become an incentive for a cooperative approach to those disputable situations that arise in line with traditional international political collisions.
In general terms, the vector of globalization indicates the formation of a global society. At an advanced stage of this process, we can talk about the formation of power on a planetary scale, and the development of a global civil society, and the transformation of traditional interstate relations into intra-social relations of the future global society.
This, however, is about a rather distant future. Only a few manifestations of this line are found in the international system that is taking shape today. Among them:
- a certain activation of supranational tendencies (primarily through the transfer of individual functions of the state to higher-level structures);
- further formation of elements of global law, transnational justice (incremental, but not abruptly);
- expanding the scope of activities and increasing the demand for international non-governmental organizations.
International relations are relations about the most diverse aspects of the development of society. Therefore, it is far from always possible to isolate some dominant factor in their evolution. This, for example, is quite clearly demonstrated by the dialectics of economics and politics in modern international development.
It would seem that today, after the hypertrophied significance of the ideological confrontation characteristic of the Cold War era has been eliminated, an ever-increasing influence is exerted by a combination of economic factors - resource, production, scientific and technological, financial. This is sometimes seen as the return of the international system to a "normal" state - if such is considered the situation of the unconditional priority of the economy over politics (and in relation to the international sphere - "geo-economics" over "geopolitics"). If this logic is taken to an extreme, one can even speak of a kind of renaissance of economic determinism - when exclusively or predominantly economic circumstances explain all conceivable and unthinkable consequences for relations on the world stage.
In modern international development, some features are indeed found that seem to confirm this thesis. For example, the hypothesis that compromises in the sphere of “low politics” (including on economic issues) are easier to achieve than in the sphere of “high politics” (when prestige and geopolitical interests are at stake) does not work. This postulate, as you know, occupies an important place in understanding international relations from the standpoint of functionalism - but it is clearly refuted by the practice of our time, when often it is economic issues that turn out to be more conflicting than diplomatic collisions. And in the foreign policy behavior of states, economic motivation is not only weighty, but in many cases it clearly comes to the fore.
However, this issue requires more careful analysis. The statement of the priority of economic determinants is often superficial and does not provide grounds for any significant or self-evident conclusions. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that economics and politics are not related only as a cause and effect - their relationship is more complex, multidimensional and elastic. This is manifested in international relations no less clearly than in domestic development.
The international political consequences arising from changes within the economic sphere can be traced throughout history. Today this is confirmed, for example, in connection with the mentioned rise of Asia, which has become one of the major events in the development of the modern international system. Here, among other things, powerful technological progress and the dramatically expanded availability of information goods and services outside the countries of the “golden billion” played a huge role. There was also a correction of the economic model: if until the 1990s almost limitless growth of the service sector and a movement towards a “post-industrial society” were predicted, then subsequently there was a change in trend towards a kind of industrial renaissance. Some states in Asia have been able to ride this wave out of poverty and join the ranks of emerging economies. And it is from this new reality that impulses to reconfigure the international political system come.
Major problematic topics that arise in the international system most often have both an economic and a political component. An example of this symbiosis is the resurgent importance of territorial control in the light of growing competition for natural resources. The scarcity and/or scarcity of the latter, combined with the desire of States to provide reliable supplies at affordable prices, all together become a source of increased sensitivity to territorial areas that are the subject of disputes over their ownership or raise concerns about the reliability and safety of transit.
Sometimes on this ground collisions of the traditional type arise and become aggravated - as, for example, in the case of the water area of ​​the South China Sea, where huge oil reserves on the continental shelf are at stake. Here, literally before our eyes, the intra-regional competition of China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei is intensifying; attempts to establish control over the Paracel Islands and the Spartly archipelago are intensified (which will allow claiming an exclusive 200-mile economic zone); demonstration actions are carried out with the use of naval forces; informal coalitions are built with the involvement of extra-regional powers (or the latter are simply addressed with calls to indicate their presence in the region), etc.
An example of a cooperative solution to emerging problems of this kind could be the Arctic. In this area, there are also competitive relationships regarding explored and eventual natural resources. But at the same time, there are powerful incentives for the development of constructive interaction between coastal and non-regional states based on a joint interest in establishing transport flows, solving environmental problems, maintaining and developing the region's bioresources. In general, the modern international system develops through the emergence and "unraveling" of various knots that form at the intersection of economics and politics. This is how new problematic fields are formed, as well as new lines of cooperative or competitive interaction in the international arena.
Tangible changes related to security issues have a significant impact on contemporary international relations. First of all, this concerns understanding the very phenomenon of security, the relationship between its various levels (global, regional, national), the challenges to international stability, as well as their hierarchy.
The threat of a world nuclear war has lost its former absolute priority, although the very presence of large arsenals of weapons of mass destruction has not completely eliminated the possibility of a global catastrophe.
But at the same time, the danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, other types of WMD, and missile technologies is becoming more and more formidable. Awareness of this problem as a global one is an important resource for mobilizing the international community.
With the relative stability of the global strategic situation, a wave of diverse conflicts is growing at lower levels of international relations, as well as those of an internal nature. It is becoming increasingly difficult to contain and resolve such conflicts.
Qualitatively new sources of threats are terrorism, drug trafficking, other types of criminal cross-border activities, political and religious extremism.
The way out of the global confrontation and the reduction of the danger of a world nuclear war was paradoxically accompanied by a slowdown in the process of arms limitation and reduction. There was even a clear regression in this area - when some important agreements (the CFE Treaty, the ABM Treaty) ceased to operate, and the conclusion of others was called into question.
Meanwhile, it is the transitional nature of the international system that makes the strengthening of arms control especially urgent. Its new state puts states before new challenges and requires them to adapt their military-political tools - and in such a way as to avoid conflicts in their relations with each other. The experience accumulated in this regard for several decades is unique and invaluable, and it would be simply irrational to start everything from scratch. Another thing is also important - to demonstrate the readiness of the participants for cooperative actions in a sphere that is of key importance for them - the sphere of security. An alternative approach - actions based on purely national imperatives and without taking into account the concerns of other countries - would be an extremely "bad" political signal, indicating a lack of readiness to focus on global interests.
The question of the current and future role of nuclear weapons in the emerging international political system requires special attention.
Each new expansion of the "nuclear club" turns into a severe stress for her.
The existential incentive for such an expansion is the very fact that the largest countries retain nuclear weapons as a means of ensuring their security. It is not clear whether any significant changes can be expected from their side in the foreseeable future. Their statements in support of "nuclear zero" are usually perceived with skepticism, and proposals in this regard often seem formal, vague and not credible. In practice, however, the nuclear potential is modernized, improved and "reconfigured" to solve additional tasks.
Meanwhile, in the face of increasing military threats, the tacit ban on the combat use of nuclear weapons may also lose its significance. And then the international political system will face a fundamentally new challenge - the challenge of the local use of nuclear weapons (devices). This can happen in almost any conceivable scenario - with the participation of any of the recognized nuclear powers, unofficial members of the nuclear club, applicants for joining it or terrorists. Such a “local” situation in terms of formal features could have extremely serious consequences. global implications.
The highest sense of responsibility, truly innovative thinking and an unprecedented degree of cooperation are required from the nuclear powers in order to minimize the political impulses for such a development. Of particular importance in this regard should be the agreements between the United States and Russia on a deep reduction in their nuclear potentials, as well as giving the process of limiting and reducing nuclear weapons a multilateral character.
An important change, which concerns not only the security sphere, but also the instruments used by states in international affairs in general, is the reassessment of the force factor in world and national politics.
In the complex of policy instruments of the most developed countries, non-military means are becoming more and more significant - economic, financial, scientific and technical, information and many others, conditionally united by the concept of "soft power". In certain situations, they make it possible to exert effective, non-forceful pressure on other participants in international life. The skillful use of these funds also contributes to the formation of a positive image of the country, its positioning as a center of attraction for other countries.
However, the ideas that existed at the beginning of the transition period about the possibility of almost completely eliminating the factor military force or significantly reduce its role were clearly overestimated. Many states see military force as an important means of ensuring their national security and raising their international status.
The major powers, giving preference to non-coercive methods, are politically and psychologically ready for electoral direct use military force or the threat to use force in certain critical situations.
As for a number of medium and small countries (especially in the developing world), many of them, due to a lack of other resources, consider military force as of paramount importance.
To an even greater extent, this applies to countries with non-democratic political system, in the case of the leadership's inclination to oppose itself to the international community using adventurous, aggressive, terrorist methods to achieve its goals.
On the whole, one has to speak rather cautiously about the relative decrease in the role of military force, bearing in mind the developing global trends and the strategic perspective. However, at the same time, there is a qualitative improvement in the means of warfare, as well as a conceptual rethinking of its nature in modern conditions. The use of this tool in real practice is by no means a thing of the past. It is possible that its use may become even wider in the territorial range. The problem will rather be seen in achieving the maximum result in the shortest possible time and while minimizing political costs (both internal and external).
Power tools are often in demand in connection with new security challenges (migration, ecology, epidemics, information technology vulnerability, emergencies, etc.). But still, in this area, the search for joint answers occurs mainly outside the force field.
One of the global issues of modern international political development is the relationship between domestic politics, state sovereignty and the international context. The approach proceeding from the inadmissibility of external involvement in the internal affairs of states is usually identified with the Peace of Westphalia (1648). On the conditionally round (350th) anniversary of his imprisonment, the peak of the debate about overcoming the "Westphalian tradition" fell. Then, at the end of the last century, ideas about almost cardinal changes that were brewing in the international system in this parameter prevailed. More balanced assessments seem appropriate today, also because of the rather contradictory practice of the transition period.
It is clear that in modern conditions one can talk about absolute sovereignty either because of professional illiteracy, or because of the conscious manipulation of this topic. What happens within a country cannot be separated by an impenetrable wall from its external relations; problematic situations that arise within the state (of an ethno-confessional nature, associated with political contradictions, developing on the basis of separatism, generated by migration and demographic processes, arising from the collapse of state structures, etc.) are becoming increasingly difficult to keep in a purely internal context. They affect relations with other countries, affect their interests, affect the state of the international system as a whole.
The strengthening of the interconnection of internal problems and relations with the outside world is also taking place in the context of some more general trends in world development. Let us mention, for example, the universalist premises and consequences of scientific and technological progress, the unprecedented spread of information technologies, the growing (though not universal) attention to humanitarian and/or ethical issues, respect for human rights, etc.
From this two consequences follow. First, the state assumes certain obligations regarding the compliance of its internal development with certain international criteria. In essence, in the emerging system of international relations, this practice is gradually becoming more widespread. Secondly, the question arises about the possibility of external influence on the internal political situations in certain countries, its goals, means, limits, etc. This topic is already much more controversial.
In the maximalist interpretation, it finds its expression in the concept of "regime change" as the most radical means to achieve the desired foreign policy result. The initiators of the operation against Iraq in 2003 pursued precisely this goal, although they refrained from formally proclaiming it. And in 2011, the organizers of international military operations against the regime of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, in fact, set such a task openly.
However, this is an extremely sensitive subject that affects national sovereignty and requires a very careful attitude. For otherwise, there may be a dangerous erosion of the most important foundations of the existing world order and the reign of chaos, in which only the right of the strong will dominate. But it is still important to emphasize that both international law and foreign policy practice are evolving (however, very slowly and with great reservations) in the direction of abandoning the fundamental inadmissibility of outside influence on the situation in a particular country.
The reverse side of the problem is the very often encountered harsh opposition of the authorities to any kind of external involvement. Such a line is usually explained by the need to protect against interference in the internal affairs of the country, but in fact it is often motivated by a lack of desire for transparency, fear of criticism, and rejection of alternative approaches. There may also be a direct accusation of external "ill-wishers" in order to transfer the vector of public discontent to them and justify harsh actions against the opposition. True, the experience of the “Arab Spring” of 2011 showed that this may not give regimes that have exhausted their internal legitimacy any additional chances - thus, by the way, marking another rather remarkable innovation for the emerging international system.
And yet, on this basis, additional conflicts in international political development may arise. We cannot rule out serious contradictions between the external contractors of a country engulfed in unrest, when the events taking place in it are interpreted from directly opposite positions.
Moscow, for example, saw the “orange revolution” in Ukraine (2004-2005) as a consequence of the intrigues of external forces and actively opposed them, which then created new lines of tension in its relations with both the EU and the United States. Similar conflicts arose in 2011 in connection with the assessment of the events in Syria and in the context of the discussion of the possible reaction of the UN Security Council to them.
In general, in the formation of a new system of international relations, a parallel development of two seemingly directly opposite tendencies is revealed. On the one hand, in societies with a predominantly Western-type political culture, there is a certain increase in the willingness to tolerate involvement in "other people's affairs" for humanitarian or solidarity reasons. However, these motives are often neutralized by concerns about the costs of such intervention for the country (financial and related to the threat of human losses). On the other hand, there is a growing opposition to it from those who consider themselves its actual or eventual object. The first of these two tendencies appears to be forward-looking, but the second draws its strength from its appeal to traditional approaches and is likely to have broader support.
The objective task facing the international political system is to find adequate methods of responding to possible conflicts arising on this basis. It is likely that here - given, in particular, the events of 2011 in and around Libya - it will be necessary to provide for situations with the possible use of force, but not through a voluntaristic denial of international law, but through its strengthening and development.
However, the issue, in the longer term, is much broader. The circumstances in which the imperatives of the internal development of states and their international political relations collide are among the most difficult to bring to a common denominator. There is a range of conflict-generating topics around which the most serious knots of tension arise (or may arise in the future) not for situational, but for fundamental reasons. For example:
- mutual responsibility of states in matters of use and transboundary movement of natural resources;
- efforts to ensure their own security and the perception of such efforts by other states;
- conflict between the right of peoples to self-determination and the territorial integrity of states.
Simple solutions for this kind of problems are not visible. The viability of the emerging system of international relations will depend, among other things, on the ability to respond to this challenge.
The collisions noted above lead both analysts and practitioners to the question of the role of the state in the new international political conditions. Some time ago, in conceptual assessments regarding the dynamics and direction of the development of the international system, rather pessimistic assumptions were made about the fate of the state in connection with the growing globalization and increasing interdependence. The institution of the state, according to such assessments, is undergoing increasing erosion, and the state itself is gradually losing its status as the main actor on the world stage.
During the transitional period, this hypothesis was tested - and not confirmed. Globalization processes, development global governance And international regulation do not "cancel" the state, do not push it into the background. It has not lost any of the significant functions that the state performs as a fundamental element of the international system.
At the same time, the functions and role of the state are undergoing a significant transformation. This happens primarily in the context of domestic development, but its impact on international political life is also significant. Moreover, as a general trend, one can note an increase in expectations in relation to the state, which is forced to respond to them, including by intensifying its participation in international life.
Along with expectations in the context of globalization and the information revolution, there are higher requirements for the viability and effectiveness of the state on the world stage, the quality of its interaction with the surrounding international political environment. Isolationism, xenophobia, causing hostility towards other countries can bring certain dividends of the opportunistic plan, but become absolutely dysfunctional at any significant time intervals.
On the contrary, the demand for cooperative interaction with other participants in international life is growing. And its absence may be the reason for the state to acquire the dubious reputation of a "rogue" - not as some kind of formal status, but as a kind of stigma that tacitly marked "handshake" regimes. Although there are different views on how correct such a classification is and whether it is used for manipulative purposes.
Another problem is the emergence of failed and failing states. This phenomenon cannot be called absolutely new, but the conditions of post-bipolarity to some extent facilitate its emergence and at the same time make it more noticeable. Here, too, there are no clear and generally accepted criteria. The question of how to organize the administration of territories where there is no any effective power is one of the most difficult for the modern international system.
An extremely important novelty of modern world development is the growing role in international life, along with states, of other actors. True, in the period approximately from the beginning of the 1970s to the beginning of the 2000s, there were clearly overestimated expectations in this regard; even globalization has often been interpreted as a gradual but increasingly large-scale replacement of states by non-state structures, which will lead to a radical transformation of international relations. Today it is clear that this will not happen in the foreseeable future.
But the very phenomenon of "non-state actors" as actors in the international political system has received significant development. Throughout the spectrum of the evolution of society (whether it be the sphere material production or the organization of financial flows, ethno-cultural or environmental movements, human rights or criminal activity, etc.), wherever there is a need for cross-border interaction, this occurs with the participation of an increasing number of non-state structures.
Some of them, speaking on the international field, really challenge the state (for example, terrorist networks), can focus on behavior independent of it and even have more significant resources (business structures), are willing to take on a number of its routine and especially emerging functions (traditional non-governmental organizations). As a result, the international political space becomes polyvalent, structured according to more complex, multidimensional algorithms.
However, as already noted, the state does not leave this space in any of the listed areas. In some cases, it wages a tough fight against competitors - and this becomes a powerful stimulus for interstate cooperation (for example, on issues of combating international terrorism and international crime). In others, it seeks to put them under control, or at least to ensure that their activities are more open and contain a more significant social component (as is the case with transnational business structures).
The activity of some of the traditional non-governmental organizations operating in a cross-border context can irritate states and governments, especially when power structures become the object of criticism and pressure. But states that are able to establish effective interaction with their competitors and opponents turn out to be more competitive in the international environment. The circumstance that such interaction increases the stability of the international order and contributes to a more effective solution of emerging problems is also of significant importance. And this brings us to the question of how the international system functions in modern conditions.

V.Yu. Peskov

postgraduate student of the Department of International Relations, World Economy and International Law, PSLU

V.V. Degoev Doctor of Historical Sciences, MGIMO (U)

Main trends in modern international relations

Until now, we have considered politics within the boundaries of nation-states, where individuals, social groups (classes, layers), parties, movements pursuing individual and group interests acted as its subjects. However, the independent states themselves do not develop in a vacuum, they interact with each other and act as subjects of a higher-level policy - international.

If at the beginning of the XX century. there were only 52 independent states in the world, then by the middle of the century there were already 82, and today their number exceeds 200. All these states and the peoples inhabiting them interact in various spheres of human life. States are not isolated, they must build relationships with their neighbors. The relations that develop between states are usually called international. International relations are a set of economic, political, ideological, legal, military, informational, diplomatic and other ties and relationships between states and systems of states, between the main social, economic and political forces, organizations and movements on the world stage.

International politics is the core of international relations. It represents the political activity of the subjects of international law (states, etc.) associated with resolving issues of war and peace, ensuring issues of universal security, environmental protection, overcoming backwardness and poverty, hunger and disease.

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Thus, international politics is aimed at solving the issues of survival and progress of human society, developing mechanisms for coordinating the interests of the subjects of world politics, preventing and resolving global and regional conflicts, and creating a just world order. It is an important factor of stability and peace, development of equality in international relations.

Political scientists distinguish 4 groups of subjects of international relations:

1. Nation states. These are the main subjects of foreign policy activity. They enter into various relationships with each other at the global and regional levels.

2. Interstate associations. These include coalitions of states, military-political blocs(eg NATO), integrated organizations (eg European Union), political associations (eg League of Arab States, Association of American States). These associations on an interstate basis play an extremely important role in modern politics.

3. Interstate governmental organizations. This is a special type of association, which includes representatives of most countries of the world with often conflicting political interests. Such organizations are created to discuss problems of general importance and to coordinate the activities of the world community (for example, the UN).

4. Non-governmental / non-governmental international organizations and movements. They are active subjects of world politics. These include international associations of political parties, professional associations (for example, the World Federation of Trade Unions, the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions), associations of youth, students, pacifist movements (for example, the Peace Movement).

Relations between states can take various forms: allied relations, when states are partners, actively

cooperate in various fields and enter into alliances; neutral relations, when business contacts are established between states, but they do not result in allied relations; conflict relations, when states come up with territorial and / or other claims against each other and take active steps to satisfy them.

In the mid 1970s. XX century in Helsinki in the final act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Currently, this international structure is called the OSCE - Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) formulated the basic principles of modern international relations: sovereign equality states; inviolability of established boundaries; non-use of force or threat of force in interstate relations; territorial integrity of states; peaceful settlement of disputes; non-interference in the internal affairs of other states; respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; equality and the right of peoples to control their own destiny; cooperation between States and the faithful fulfillment by States of their obligations under international law.

Modern international relations are built on a bilateral or multilateral basis, are global or regional in nature.

Previously, in the theory of international relations, the concept of "foreign policy" was used to denote interaction between sovereign states. Foreign policy is the general course of the state in international affairs. The foreign policy activity of states is a kind of means of their adaptation to specific external conditions. These conditions do not depend on the will, desires and intentions of an individual state and do not always correspond to its interests and motivational guidelines. Therefore, states in the process of implementing their foreign policy function have to adjust their

needs, goals and interests determined by their internal development, with objective conditions in the system.

Main goals foreign policy are: ensuring the security of this state; striving to increase the material, political, military, intellectual and other potential of the country; the growth of its prestige in international relations.

In addition, the goal and result of the interaction of members of the world community is the coordination of efforts to establish mutually beneficial ties between the subjects of world politics.

There are many theories of foreign policy. Of the specific foreign policy theories, the most famous is the theory of the American political scientist G. Morgenthau. He defines foreign policy primarily as a policy of force, in which national interests rise above any international norms and principles, and therefore force (foreign, economic, financial) becomes the main means of achieving the set goals. From this follows his formula: "The goals of foreign policy must be determined in the spirit of national interests and supported by force."

To the question "Is there a relationship between foreign and domestic policy?" one can find at least three points of view on this problem. The first point of view identifies domestic and foreign policy. G. Morgenthau, a professor at the University of Chicago, believed that “the essence of international politics is identical to domestic politics. Both domestic and foreign policy is a struggle for power, which is modified only various conditions emerging in the domestic and international spheres.

The second point of view is represented by the works of the Austrian sociologist L. Gumplovich, who believed that foreign policy determines domestic policy. Based on the fact that the struggle for existence is the main factor in social life, L. Gumplovich formulated a system of laws

international politics. The main law: neighboring states are constantly fighting with each other because of the border line. Secondary ones follow from the main law. One of them is this: any state must prevent the strengthening of the power of its neighbor and take care of the political balance; in addition, any state strives for profitable acquisitions, for example, to gain access to the sea as a means of acquiring maritime power. Finally, the third law: domestic policy must be subordinated to the goals of building up military power, with the help of which resources are provided for the survival of the state. Such, according to L. Gumpilovich, are the basic laws of international politics.

The third point of view is represented by Marxism, which believes that foreign policy is determined by domestic and is a continuation of intra-social relations. The content of the latter is due to the economic relations prevailing in society and the interests of the ruling classes.

Relations between states in the international arena have never been equal. The role of each state was determined by its economic, technological, military, information capabilities. These possibilities determined the nature of relations between states and, consequently, the type of system of international relations. The typology of international relations is of practical importance, since it makes it possible to identify those global factors that influenced the development of both the world community and a particular country.

Everything in the world greater value acquire integration processes that manifest themselves in the creation of international interstate organizations (such as, for example, the UN, NATO, ILO, WHO, FAO, UNESCO, UNICEF, SCO, etc.), confederations (the European Union, the union of Russia and Belarus strengthening its positions). The largest confederation of states in modern times is the European Union (EU). This

confederations of states: 1) the formation of a close union of the peoples of Europe, the promotion of economic growth by creating a space without internal borders, the creation of a single currency; 2) conducting a joint foreign and security policy; 3) development of cooperation in the field of justice (creation and signing of the European Constitution, etc.) and internal affairs, etc. The EU bodies are: 1) the European Council; 2) European Parliament; 3) Council of the European Union (Council of Ministers); 4) European Commission; 5) European Court.

Today, the EU is no longer just a group of countries united in a customs union or a common market - it is incomparably more. Being the undisputed leader of not only European, but also world integration, he lays down the main trends in the functioning of world politics. This, in turn, leads to closer political, economic, scientific and cultural relations between participating countries. In the modern international system, the Russian Federation and the EU act as independent and at the same time actively interacting agents of the global political process, the foundation of which is the basic principles of international law and the UN Charter. The partnership between Russia and the EU was legally formalized in 1994 by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which entered into force on December 1, 1997. Russia-EU summits are periodically held, where topical issues of international politics and economic cooperation are discussed.

The current situation in the world associated with the crisis of the neoliberal scenario of globalization, which was based on the idea of ​​sole domination of the US international policy, required the Russian Federation to develop new principles on which its foreign policy will be built. These principles-positions were once announced by D.A. Medvedev. Let's call them:

The first position is international law. Russia recognizes the primacy of the fundamental principles of international law that determine relations between civilized peoples.

The second position is that the world should be multipolar. Medvedev considers unipolarity unacceptable. Russia "cannot accept such a world order in which all decisions are made by one country, even one as serious as the United States," the president said. He believes that "such a world is unstable and threatens with conflicts."

The third position is that Russia does not want a confrontation with any country. “Russia is not going to isolate itself,” Medvedev said. "We will develop as much as possible our friendly relations with Europe and the US and other countries of the world."

The fourth position, which D. Medvedev called the unconditional priority of the country's foreign policy, is the protection of the life and dignity of Russian citizens, "wherever they are." “We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad,” the President stressed. “And it should be clear to everyone that everyone who commits aggression will receive an answer.”

The fifth position is Russia's interests in its friendly regions. “Russia, like other countries of the world, has regions in which there are privileged interests,” Medvedev explained. “These regions are countries with which friendly relations are connected.” And Russia, according to the president, will "work very carefully in these regions." Medvedev clarified that this is not only about the border states.

The American sociologist L. Kerbo argues that it is impossible to understand any modern society without finding out its place in the world system, which is influenced by economic growth, urbanization, and demography.

The world system can be viewed as a set of relations between states, similar to the relations between groups in society. E. Giddens defines world system How social system

global scale, linking all societies into a single global social order.

One of the theories of the world system was developed by I. Wallerstein. The world system is based on economic relations. In the modern world, all states are interconnected. But the economic roles of each state are different both in specialization and in the degree of influence. In a sense, the world is an international system of stratification "from the class position" of each state according to the degree of wealth and power. Similarly, there will be a class struggle in the world struggle: some want to hold their positions, others want to change.

In this regard, the following types of states with their inherent characteristic features can be distinguished:

Center: economically developed, with broad specialization. A complex professional structure with a skilled workforce. They influence others, but they themselves are independent.

Periphery: focused on the extraction and export of raw materials. International corporations use unskilled labor. Weaker state institutions unable to control the internal and external position. Reliance on the army, the secret police to maintain social order.

Semi-periphery: states develop industry in a broad sense, but lag far behind the center. In other respects, they also occupy an intermediate position.

The states of the center, according to Western researchers, have the following advantages: wide access to raw materials; cheap labor; high returns on direct investment; market for export; skilled labor force through migration to the center.

If we talk about the connections of these three types of states, then the center has more connections than other states; periphery tied

only with the center; the semi-periphery is connected to the center and other semi-peripheral countries, but not to the peripheral ones.

According to Sh. Kumon, the 21st century will be marked by the information revolution. Potential conflicts will arise over the control of communications. The world-system will be characterized by the following trends: simultaneously with the growth of the influence of local government, the global system will be strengthened, requiring the management of transport, communications, trade, etc.; the development of a common world economy will lead to a weakening of market mechanisms; the role of the common system of knowledge and culture will increase.

Peskov V.Yu., Degoev V.V. The main trends of modern international relations. The article deals with the problem of development vectors of the global political process.

Keywords Keywords: international relations, world politics, foreign policy. Peskov V.U., Degoev M.M. The main trends of modern international relations. The problem of vectors of world politics.

Keywords: international relations, world politics, foreign policy.

of the future of the self-proclaimed republics, and at the same time he notes two alternatives to this project in the civilizational paradigm, viewing it in the sense of the local East European civilization.

Keywords: Novorossia, crisis in Ukraine, Crimea, Russia, militia form of defense building, local East European civilization

VATAMAN Alexander Vladimirovich - post-graduate student of the Nizhny Novgorod State Linguistic University named after V.I. ON THE. Dobrolyubov; Plenipotentiary Representative of the Republic of Abkhazia in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, Envoy Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the 2nd class (3300, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, Tiraspol, 25 October st., 76; [email protected])

FORMATION OF A NEW SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND UNRECOGNIZED STATES

Annotation. One of the stable trends in modern international relations is the growth in the number and variety of actors either directly involved in the functioning of international relations or having a significant impact on their state. The expansion and diversification of the composition of participants in international relations is also due to the participation in the international life of unrecognized states.

The process of forming a new system of international relations creates new contours of interstate relations, incl. and with the participation of unrecognized states. The development and practical use of modern forms of interstate cooperation, together with the intensification of rivalry between the West and Russia, has led today to the actualization of the problem of unrecognized states. Issues of international relations with unrecognized states are turning into not only an international legal, but also a geopolitically oriented task.

Keywords: unrecognized state, system, international relations, international organizations

The political structure of the world in the twentieth! century is undergoing drastic changes, revealing the ineffectiveness of most of the norms and principles that underlie the foundation of the former world systems and models.

The ongoing complex, contradictory and sometimes ambiguous processes are eroding the foundations of the modern world order as a whole. systemic education on the planet. These processes are developing with increasing acceleration, the rules and conditions of life of people and the functioning of states began to change faster [Karpovich 2014]. Here it is necessary to take into account the formation of new state formations. Number of countries since the beginning of the 20th century increased more than three times: after the First World War, 30 new state entities appeared; following the results of World War II, another 25 new countries were added; decolonization led to the emergence of 90 states; the collapse of the USSR and other socialist countries increased the number of countries by another 30.

New trends in the field of conflictology and international law (the examples of Eritrea, East Timor, Northern Cyprus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, etc.) have made the problem of self-determined republics (some of which are unrecognized states) the subject of active international discussions.

The situation around the unrecognized states is developing quite dynamically. International trends in the use of new forms of interstate cooperation in practice, coupled with increased rivalry between the West and Russia, have led to the actualization of the problem of unrecognized states. A natural reaction to the realities of modern world politics was the adjustment by unrecognized states of their foreign policy positions

in order to move to a higher level of interstate relations. External and internal factors can be singled out as motives for this process.

Two main factors can be traced in the external block: the first is world tendencies and precedents in the field of settlement; the second is the position and role of the main geostrategic players (Russian Federation, USA, EU).

The internal factors include the permanent crisis of the settlement process and the associated tense nature of relations between the self-determined republics and the former mother countries, which continue to follow the strategy of restoring "territorial integrity".

Entering a new level of international relations requires the adoption of optimal foreign policy decisions in all respects, which must meet the interests of the country in the foreign arena and at the same time satisfy the key domestic political forces in the country [Batalov 2003]. This is the fundamental complexity of foreign policy decisions, especially when it comes to making such decisions by the leaders of unrecognized states. Undoubtedly, the implementation of such decisions determines the state of international relations and plays an important role in resolving key, fundamental problems in the world.

Among global problems, the problem of world security is of paramount importance. Since the 90s. 20th century participation international organizations in solving problems related to ensuring world security has become mandatory [Baranovsky 2011]. Favorable conditions were created for raising the status of the UN and the OSCE, prospects for strengthening their decisive role in maintaining peace, in ensuring international security and development of cooperation; full disclosure of its own potential as a source of modern international law and the main mechanism of peacemaking and conflict resolution as the basis of the emerging system of international relations.

However, the participation of the UN, the OSCE and other international organizations in building the modern world order, as well as in resolving conflicts related to unrecognized states, has not become effective, and organizations have not been able to adapt to new challenges and requirements of international relations [Kortunov 2010].

In this regard, the main burden and responsibility for maintaining international stability in modern conditions fell on the states that play a leading role on the world stage, determining the nature, climate and direction of development of international relations [Achkasov 2011]. The role of states is also very significant in determining the share of participation of unrecognized states in world and regional processes. However, one should take into account the fact that states are not free from manifestations of national egoism, from the desire to gain a geopolitical advantage over their foreign policy competitors. And, as a result, such characteristics of unrecognized states as geographical location, size of territory, population, as well as the level of economic and cultural development, are considered by recognized states only from the point of view of the influence of these factors on strengthening their own strategic and military potential [Bogaturov 2006] . All this does not allow unrecognized states to pursue an independent independent policy in the modern system of international relations, which today in its development acquires clear features of polycentricity.

The structure of a polycentric system consists of many elements that are in relationships and connections with each other, while a group of elements has a stable connection with one of the centers, and the whole system generally forms a certain integrity. It can be determined that each center of the polycentric system of international relations is structurally connected with a certain group of states. The involvement of the state in a particular center is characterized by political decisions of state leaders on the fundamental issues of modern

important international relations is participation in political and economic associations, in financial system trade, control over the extraction and transportation of natural resources, etc. [Shishkov 2012]. The possibilities of unrecognized states to make decisions on these key issues are extremely limited and, accordingly, the choice of the center takes place in a completely different plane - in the plane of historical, political and economic dependence.

At the same time, it should be noted that, existing as an unrecognized state for more than one year (and even for more than one decade, for example, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic was formed on September 2, 1990), such countries build their own power structures, including foreign policy ones, whose activities are aimed to implement their own concept of foreign policy.

The concept of foreign policy of unrecognized states reflects current trends in world politics, contains provisions aimed at the participation of the state in the processes of general rapprochement of peoples and states, at participation in new approaches to world processes. The Foreign Policy Concept of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic states: “Based on the generally recognized principles and norms of international law, as well as international legal precedents of recent years related to the recognition of a number of new states, Pridnestrovie carries out consistent activities aimed at recognizing the international legal personality of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic with its subsequent entry into regional and universal international organizations, including the United Nations.

Pridnestrovie builds its relations with other subjects of the international system on the basis of equality, cooperation, mutual respect and partnership and strives for active involvement in the work of regional associations of an economic, socio-cultural and military nature in the CIS space”1.

As a result, unrecognized states are elements of modern geopolitical transformations, which are accompanied by the “pulling” of countries to certain world centers. In many ways, these processes are determined by two points. Firstly, the possibilities and interest of the centers to take other countries into their orbit, and even more so unrecognized states. Secondly, the policy pursued by countries belonging to other centers [Modern world ... 2010].

For example, for the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, the Russian Federation is clearly a center that provides the republic with tremendous assistance and support in the peacekeeping, humanitarian and financial spheres. At the same time, in the context of the confrontation between Russia and the West, taking into account the changing economic component, increasing pressure on Pridnestrovie from Moldova, Ukraine and another center - the EU, Russia's resources begin to experience a shortage and, accordingly, Russia's room for maneuver in relation to Pridnestrovie is decreasing, and the prospects for the unrecognized republic become less certain.

Therefore, on the one hand, Pridnestrovie is trying to use the instruments of direct and more intensive dialogue with the Russian Federation, to find and offer possible options its participation in the Eurasian integration, continue to develop new forms of interaction with the countries of the Eurasian Union. On the other hand, today in world politics there are no universal approaches to cooperation with unrecognized states and criteria for their recognition as sovereign states. This is determined by the fact that in the system of international relations that has not yet taken shape, there are too many unresolved legal and political issues, and the protracted transition from one system of international relations to another is characterized by an actual discrepancy between the objective state of the world, which has qualitatively changed in recent times, and the rules governing relations between countries.

1 Foreign Policy Concept of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. Approved Decree of the President of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic dated November 20, 2012 No. 766.

Bibliography

Achkasov V.A. 2011. World politics and international relations: textbook. Moscow: Aspect-press. 480 s.

Baranovsky V.G. 2011. Contemporary global issues. Moscow: Aspect Press. 352 p.

Batalov E.Ya. 2003. "The New World Order": Towards a Methodology of Analysis. - Polis. No. 5. S. 27-41.

Bogaturov A.R. 2006. Leadership and decentralization in the international system. - International processes. No. 3(12). pp. 48-57.

Karpovich O.G. 2014. Global issues and international relations. M.: UNITY-DANA: Law and law. 487 p.

Kortunov S.V. 2010. World Politics in Crisis: tutorial. Moscow: Aspect Press. 464 p.

Modern world politics. Applied Analysis (responsible editor A.D. Bogaturov. 2nd ed., corrected and supplemented). 2010. M.: Aspect Press. 284 p.

Shishkov V.V. 2012. Neo-imperial centers in the political design of the 21st century. Historical, philosophical, political and legal sciences, cultural studies and art history. Questions of theory and practice. - Diploma (Tambov). No. 5(19). Part II. pp. 223-227.

VATAMAN Alexandr Vladimirovich, postgraduate student of Dobroljubov State Linguistics University of Nizhny Novgorod, Plenipotentiary Representative of the Republic of Abkhazia in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Envoy of the 2nd class (October 25 str., 76, Tiraspol, Transdnistria, 3300; [email protected])

FORMATION OF A NEW SYSTEM OF THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND THE UNRECOGNIZED STATES

abstract. The article is devoted to the one of the steady tendencies of the modern international relations - to the growth of a number and a variety of actors directly involved in the functioning of the international relations and its significant influence on their condition. As the author notes, the expansion and the diversification of the lineup of international actors occurs because of participation of unrecognized states in the international life.

The article notes that the process of formation of a new system of international relations creates new contours of interstate relationship including the participation of unrecognized states. The development and the practical usage of modern forms of interstate cooperation combined with strengthening the rivalry between the West and Russia have led to updating the range of problems of unrecognized states. The questions of the international relations with unrecognized states are turning not only into the international legal task but also into the geopolitically-oriented one. Keywords: unrecognized state, system, international relations, international organizations

At present, modern international relations are characterized by dynamic development, a variety of different relationships and unpredictability. The Cold War and, accordingly, the bipolar confrontation are a thing of the past. The transitional moment from the bipolar system to the formation of a modern system of international relations begins in the 1980s, just during the policy of M.S. Gorbachev, namely during the "perestroika" and "new thinking".

At the moment, in the era of the post-bipolar world, the status of the only superpower - the United States - is in the "challenging phase", which means that today the number of powers that are ready to challenge the United States is increasing at a rapid pace. Already at the moment, at least two superpowers are the obvious leaders in the international arena and are ready to challenge America - these are Russia and China. And if we consider the views of E.M. Primakov in his book “A World without Russia? What political short-sightedness leads to, ”according to his predictive estimates, the role of the hegemon of the United States will be shared with the European Union, India, China, South Korea and Japan.

In this context, it is worth noting the important events in international relations that demonstrate the formation of Russia as a country independent of the West. In 1999, during the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO troops, Russia came out in defense of Serbia, which confirmed the independence of Russia's policy from the West.

It is also necessary to mention the speech of Vladimir Putin before the ambassadors in 2006. It is worth noting that the meeting of Russian ambassadors is held annually, but it was in 2006 that Putin first declared that Russia should play the role of a great power, guided by its national interests. A year later, on February 10, 2007, Putin's famous Munich speech was delivered, which, in fact, is the first frank conversation with the West. Putin conducted a tough but very deep analysis of the Western policy, which led to the crisis of the world security system. In addition, the president spoke about the unacceptability of a unipolar world, and now, 10 years later, it has become obvious that today the United States cannot cope with the role of the world policeman.

Thus, modern international relations are now in transit, and since the twentieth century Russia has shown its independent policy, led by a worthy leader.

Also, the trend of modern international relations is globalization, which is contrary to the Westphalian system, built on the idea of ​​relatively isolated and self-sufficient states and on the principle of "balance of power" between them. It should be noted that globalization has an uneven character, since the modern world is rather asymmetric, therefore globalization is considered a contradictory phenomenon of modern international relations. It should be mentioned that the disintegration Soviet Union is a powerful surge of globalization, at least in the economic sphere, since at the same time transnational corporations with economic interest began to actively operate.

In addition, it should be emphasized that the trend of modern international relations is the active integration of countries. Globalization differs from integration between countries by the absence of interstate agreements. However, it is globalization that influences the stimulation of the integration process, as it makes interstate borders transparent. The development of close cooperation within the framework of regional organizations, which began actively at the end of the twentieth century, is an obvious proof of this. Usually, at the regional level, there is an active integration of countries in the economic sphere, which has a positive effect on the global political process. At the same time, the process of globalization negatively affects the internal economies of countries, because it limits the ability of nation states to control their internal economic processes.

Considering the process of globalization, I would like to mention the words of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov, which he said at the forum "Territory of Meanings": "Now this very model of globalization, including its economic and financial aspects, which this club of the elect has built for itself - liberal globalization, it is now, in my opinion, failing.” That is, the fact that the West wants to maintain its dominance in the international arena is obvious, however, as Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov noted in his book “A World Without Russia? What does political short-sightedness lead to”: “The United States has long been no longer the sole leader” and this indicates a new phase in the development of international relations. Thus, it is most objective to consider the future of international relations as the formation of not a multipolar, but precisely a polycentric world, since the tendency of regional associations leads to the formation of not poles, but centers of power.

An active role in the development of international relations is played by interstate organizations, as well as non-governmental international organizations and transnational corporations (TNCs), in addition, the emergence of international financial organizations and global trade networks has a great influence on the development of international relations, which is also a consequence of the shift in Westphalian principles, where the state was the only actor in international relations. It should be noted that TNCs may be interested in regional associations, as they are focused on cost optimization and the creation of unified production networks, therefore, they put pressure on the government to develop a free regional investment and trade regime.

In the context of globalization and post-bipolarity, interstate organizations are increasingly in need of reform in order to make their work more effective. For example, the activities of the UN, obviously, need to be reformed, since, in fact, its actions do not bring significant results to stabilize crisis situations. In 2014, Vladimir Putin proposed two conditions for reforming the organization: consistency in the decision to reform the UN, as well as the preservation of all the fundamental principles of activity. Once again, the participants of the Valdai Discussion Club spoke about the need to reform the UN at a meeting with V.V. Putin. It is also worth mentioning that E.M. Primakov said that the UN should strive to increase its influence when considering issues that threaten national security. Namely, not to grant the right to veto for a large number of countries, the right should belong only to the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Primakov also spoke about the need to develop other crisis management structures, not just the UN Security Council, and considered the advantages of the idea of ​​developing a charter of antiterrorist actions.

That is why one of the important factors in the development of modern international relations is an effective system of international security. One of the most serious problems in the international arena is the danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other types of WMD. That is why it is worth noting that in the transitional period of the modern system of international relations, it is necessary to promote the strengthening of arms control. After all, such important agreements as the ABM Treaty and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) have ceased to operate, and the conclusion of new ones has remained in doubt.

In addition, within the framework of the development of modern international relations, not only the problem of terrorism, but also the problem of migration is relevant. The migration process has a detrimental effect on the development of states, because from this international problem not only the country of origin suffers, but also the recipient country, since migrants do nothing positive for the development of the country, mainly spreading an even wider range of problems, such as drug trafficking, terrorism and crime. To solve a situation of this nature, the collective security system is used, which, like the UN, needs to be reformed, because, observing their activities, it can be concluded that regional collective security organizations do not have consistency not only among themselves, but also with the Council UN security.

It is also worth noting the significant influence of soft power on the development of modern international relations. The concept of Joseph Nye's soft power implies the ability to achieve desired goals in the international arena, not using violent methods (hard power), but using political ideology, the culture of society and the state, as well as foreign policy (diplomacy). In Russia, the concept of “soft power” appeared in 2010 in Vladimir Putin’s election article “Russia and the Changing World”, where the president clearly formulated the definition of this concept: “Soft power” is a set of tools and methods for achieving foreign policy goals without the use of weapons, but for informational and other levers of influence”.

At the moment, the most obvious examples of the development of “soft power” are the holding of the Winter Olympics in Sochi in Russia in 2014, as well as the holding of the World Cup in 2018 in many cities of Russia.

It should be noted that the Foreign Policy Concepts of the Russian Federation of 2013 and 2016 mention “soft power”, the use of which tools is recognized as an integral part of foreign policy. However, the difference between the concepts lies in the role of public diplomacy. The 2013 Foreign Policy Concept of Russia pays great attention to public diplomacy, as it creates a favorable image of the country abroad. A striking example of public diplomacy in Russia is the creation in 2008 of the A. M. Gorchakov Foundation for the Support of Public Diplomacy, the main mission of which is “to encourage the development of the field of public diplomacy, as well as to promote the formation of a favorable public, political and business climate for Russia abroad.” But, despite the positive impact of public diplomacy on Russia, the issue of public diplomacy disappears in the 2016 Foreign Policy Concept of Russia, which looks rather inappropriate, since public diplomacy is the institutional and instrumental basis for the implementation of "soft power". However, it is worth noting that in the system of public diplomacy of Russia, areas related to international information policy are actively and successfully developing, which is already a good springboard for increasing the effectiveness of foreign policy work.

Thus, if Russia develops its concept of soft power based on the principles of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2016, namely, the rule of law in international relations, a fair and sustainable world order, then Russia will be perceived positively in the international arena.

It is obvious that modern international relations, being in transit and developing in a rather unstable world, will remain unpredictable, however, the prospects for the development of international relations, taking into account the strengthening of regional integration and the influence of centers of power, provide quite positive vectors for the development of global politics.

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3. Speech at a meeting with ambassadors and permanent representatives of the Russian Federation. - URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/23669
4. Speech and discussion at the Munich Security Policy Conference. - URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034
5. The modern model of globalization is failing, Lavrov said. - URL: https://ria.ru/world/20170811/1500200468.html
6. Primakov E.M. World without Russia? What does political myopia lead to? - M.: IIK "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" 2009. P-239.
7. Vladimir Putin: The UN needs reform. - URL: https://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1929681
8. Look over the horizon. Vladimir Putin met with the participants of the meeting of the Valdai Club // Valdai International Discussion Club. - URL: http://ru.valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/zaglyanut-za-gorizont-putin-valday/
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13. Gorchakov Fund // Mission and tasks. - URL: http://gorchakovfund.ru/about/mission/

Gulyants Victoria

The global scale and radical nature of the changes taking place in our days in the political, economic, spiritual areas of the life of the world community, in the field of military security allow us to put forward an assumption about the formation of a new system of international relations, different from those that have functioned over the past century, and in many respects even since from the classical Westphalian system.

In the world and domestic literature, a more or less stable approach to the systematization of international relations has developed, depending on their content, composition of participants, driving forces and patterns. It is believed that international (interstate) relations proper originated during the formation of national states in the relatively amorphous space of the Roman Empire. The end of the “Thirty Years’ War” in Europe and the conclusion of the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 is taken as a starting point. Since then, the entire 350-year period of international interaction up to the present day is considered by many, especially Western researchers, as the history of a single Westphalian system of international relations. The dominant subjects of this system are sovereign states. There is no supreme arbiter in the system, therefore the states are independent in conducting domestic policy within their national borders and are in principle equal in rights. Sovereignty implies non-interference in each other's affairs. Over time, states have developed a set of rules based on these principles that govern international relations - international law.

Most scholars agree that the main driving force behind the Westphalian system of international relations was rivalry between states: some sought to increase their influence, while others tried to prevent this. Collisions between states were determined by the fact that national interests perceived as vital by some states came into conflict with the national interests of other states. The outcome of this rivalry, as a rule, was determined by the balance of power between states or alliances that they entered to achieve their foreign policy goals. The establishment of a balance, or balance, meant a period of stable peaceful relations, the violation of the balance of power ultimately led to war and its restoration in a new configuration, reflecting the strengthening of the influence of some states at the expense of others. For clarity and, of course, with a large degree of simplification, this system is compared with the movement of billiard balls. States collide with each other in changing configurations and then move again in an endless struggle for influence or security. Main principle at the same time - its own benefit. The main criterion is strength.

The Westphalian era (or system) of international relations is divided into several stages (or subsystems), united by the general patterns indicated above, but differing from each other in features characteristic of a particular period of relations between states. Historians usually distinguish several subsystems of the Westphalian system, which are often considered as independent: the system of predominantly Anglo-French rivalry in Europe and the struggle for colonies in the 17th - 18th centuries; the system of the "European concert of nations" or the Congress of Vienna in the 19th century; the more geographically global Versailles-Washington system between the two world wars; finally, the Cold War system, or, as some scholars have defined it, the Yalta-Potsdam system. Obviously, in the second half of the 80s - early 90s of the XX century. cardinal changes have taken place in international relations, which allow us to speak of the end of the Cold War and the formation of new system-forming patterns. The main question today is what are these regularities, what are the specifics of the new stage compared to the previous ones, how does it fit into the general Westphalian system or differ from it, how can a new system of international relations be defined.

The majority of foreign and domestic international experts take the wave of political changes in the countries of Central Europe in the autumn of 1989 as a watershed between the Cold War and the current stage of international relations, and consider the fall of the Berlin Wall as a clear symbol of it. In the titles of most monographs, articles, conferences, and training courses devoted to today's processes, the emerging system of international relations or world politics is designated as belonging to the post-cold war period. Such a definition focuses on what is missing in the current period compared to the previous one. The obvious distinguishing features of the emerging system today compared to the previous one are the removal of the political and ideological confrontation between "anti-communism" and "communism" due to the rapid and almost complete disappearance of the latter, as well as the curtailment of the military confrontation of the blocs that were grouped during the Cold War around two poles - Washington and Moscow. Such a definition does not adequately reflect the new essence of world politics, just as the formula “after the Second World War” did not reveal the new quality of the emerging patterns of the Cold War in its time. Therefore, when analyzing today's international relations and trying to predict their development, one should pay attention to qualitatively new processes emerging under the influence of the changed conditions of international life.

Lately, one can hear more and more often pessimistic lamentations about the fact that the new international situation is less stable, predictable and even more dangerous than in previous decades. Indeed, the sharp contrasts of the Cold War are clearer than the multiplicity of undertones of new international relations. In addition, the Cold War is already a thing of the past, an era that has become the object of unhurried study of historians, and a new system is just emerging, and its development can only be predicted on the basis of a still small amount of information. This task becomes all the more complicated if, in analyzing the future, one proceeds from the regularities that characterized the past system. This is partly confirmed by the fact

The fact that, in essence, the entire science of international relations, operating with the methodology of explaining the Westphalian system, was unable to foresee the collapse of communism and the end of the cold war. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the change of systems does not occur instantly, but gradually, in the struggle between the new and the old. Apparently, the feeling of increased instability and danger is caused by this variability of the new, as yet incomprehensible world.

New political map of the world

In approaching the analysis of the new system of international relations, apparently, one should proceed from the fact that the end of the Cold War completed in principle the process of forming a single world community. The path traversed by humanity from the isolation of continents, regions, civilizations and peoples through the colonial gathering of the world, the expansion of the geography of trade, through the cataclysms of two world wars, the massive entry into the world arena of states liberated from colonialism, the mobilization of resources by opposite camps from all corners of the world in opposition to the Cold War, increase in the compactness of the planet as a result of the scientific and technological revolution, finally ended with the collapse of the "iron curtain" between East and West and the transformation of the world into single organism with a certain general set of principles and patterns of development of its individual parts. The world community is increasingly becoming such in reality. Therefore, in recent years, increased attention has been paid to the problems of interdependence and globalization of the world, the common denominator of the national components of world politics. Apparently, the analysis of these transcendent universal tendencies can make it possible to more reliably imagine the direction of change in world politics and international relations.

According to a number of scholars and politicians, the disappearance of the ideological stimulus of world politics in the form of the confrontation "communism - anti-communism" allows us to return to the traditional structure of relations between nation states, characteristic of the earlier stages of the Westphalian system. In this case, the disintegration of bipolarity presupposes the formation of a multipolar world, the poles of which should be the most powerful powers that have thrown off the restrictions of corporate discipline as a result of the disintegration of two blocs, worlds or commonwealths. The well-known scientist and former US Secretary of State H. Kissinger, in one of his last monographs Diplomacy, predicts that international relations emerging after the Cold War will increasingly resemble the European politics of the 19th century, when traditional national interests and the changing balance of power determined the diplomatic game, education and the collapse of alliances, changing spheres of influence. A full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, when he was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, E. M. Primakov paid considerable attention to the phenomenon of the emergence of multipolarity. It should be noted that the supporters of the doctrine of multipolarity operate with the former categories, such as "great power", "spheres of influence", "balance of power", etc. The idea of ​​multipolarity has become one of the central ones in the programmatic party and state documents of the PRC, although the emphasis in them is rather not on an attempt to adequately reflect the essence of a new stage in international relations, but on the task of counteracting real or imaginary hegemonism, preventing the formation of a unipolar world led by the United States. states. In Western literature, and in some statements by American officials, there is often talk of "the sole leadership of the United States", i.e. about unipolarity.

Indeed, in the early 90s, if we consider the world from the point of view of geopolitics, the map of the world has undergone major changes. The collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance put an end to the dependence of the states of Central and Eastern Europe on Moscow, turned each of them into an independent agent of European and world politics. The collapse of the Soviet Union fundamentally changed the geopolitical situation in the Eurasian space. To a greater or lesser extent and at different speeds, the states formed in the post-Soviet space fill their sovereignty with real content, form their own complexes of national interests, foreign policy courses, not only theoretically, but also in essence become independent subjects of international relations. The fragmentation of the post-Soviet space into fifteen sovereign states changed the geopolitical situation for neighboring countries that previously interacted with the united Soviet Union, for example

China, Turkey, countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Scandinavia. Not only have the local “balances of power” changed, but the multivariance of relations has also sharply increased. Of course, the Russian Federation remains the most powerful public education in the post-Soviet, and even in the Eurasian space. But its new, very limited potential compared to the former Soviet Union (if such a comparison is at all appropriate), in terms of territory, population, share of the economy and geopolitical neighborhood, dictates a new model of behavior in international affairs, if viewed from the point of view of multipolar "balance of power".

Geopolitical changes on the European continent as a result of the unification of Germany, the collapse of the former Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, the obvious pro-Western orientation of most countries of Eastern and Central Europe, including the Baltic states, are superimposed on a certain strengthening of Eurocentrism and independence of Western European integration structures, a more prominent manifestation of sentiments in a number of European countries, not always coinciding with the US strategic line. The dynamics of China's economic growth and the increase in its foreign policy activity, Japan's search for a more independent place in world politics, befitting its economic power, are causing shifts in the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The objective increase in the share of the United States in world affairs after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union is to some extent leveled by the increase in the independence of other "poles" and a certain strengthening of isolationist sentiments in American society.

Under the new conditions, with the end of the confrontation between the two "camps" of the Cold War, the coordinates of the foreign policy activities of a large group of states that were previously part of the "third world" have changed. The Non-Aligned Movement has lost its former content, the stratification of the South has accelerated and the differentiation of the attitude of the groups and individual states formed as a result of this towards the North, which is also not monolithic.

Another dimension of multipolarity can be considered regionalism. For all their diversity, different rates of development and degree of integration, regional groupings introduce additional features into the change in the geopolitical map of the world. Supporters of the "civilizational" school tend to view multipolarity from the point of view of the interaction or clash of cultural and civilizational blocs. According to the most fashionable representative of this school, the American scientist S. Huntington, the ideological bipolarity of the Cold War will be replaced by a clash of multipolarity of cultural and civilizational blocs: Western - Judeo-Christian, Islamic, Confucian, Slavic-Orthodox, Hindu, Japanese, Latin American and, possibly, African. Indeed, regional processes are developing against different civilizational backgrounds. But the possibility of a fundamental division of the world community on precisely this basis at the moment seems to be very speculative and is not yet supported by any specific institutional or policy-forming realities. Even the confrontation between Islamic "fundamentalism" and Western civilization loses its sharpness over time.

More materialized is economic regionalism in the form of a highly integrated European Union, other regional formations of varying degrees of integration - the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Commonwealth of Independent States, ASEAN, the North American Free Trade Area, similar formations emerging in Latin America and South Asia. Although in a somewhat modified form, regional political institutions, such as the Organization of Latin American States, the Organization of African Unity, and so on, retain their significance. They are complemented by such interregional multifunctional structures as the North Atlantic partnership, the US-Japan linkage, the North America-Western Europe-Japan trilateral structure in the form of the G7, to which the Russian Federation is gradually joining.

In short, since the end of the Cold War, the geopolitical map of the world has undergone obvious changes. But multipolarity explains the form rather than the essence of the new system of international interaction. Does multipolarity mean the restoration in full of the action of the traditional driving forces of world politics and the motivations for the behavior of its subjects in the international arena, which are characteristic to a greater or lesser extent for all stages of the Westphalian system?

The events of recent years do not yet confirm such a logic of a multipolar world. First, the United States is behaving much more restrained than it could afford under the logic of the balance of power given its current position in the economic, technological, and military fields. Secondly, with a certain autonomization of the poles in the Western world, the emergence of new, somewhat radical dividing lines of confrontation between North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region is not visible. With some increase in the level of anti-American rhetoric in the Russian and Chinese political elites, the more fundamental interests of both powers are pushing them to further develop relations with the United States. NATO expansion has not strengthened the centripetal tendencies in the CIS, which should be expected under the laws of a multipolar world. An analysis of the interaction between the permanent members of the UN Security Council and the G8 shows that the field of convergence of their interests is much wider than the field of disagreement, despite the outward drama of the latter.

Based on this, it can be assumed that the behavior of the world community is beginning to be influenced by new driving forces, different from those that traditionally operated within the framework of the Westphalian system. In order to test this thesis, one should consider new factors that are beginning to influence the behavior of the world community.

Global Democratic Wave

At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, the global socio-political space changed qualitatively. The refusal of the peoples of the Soviet Union, most other countries of the former "socialist commonwealth" from the one-party system state structure and central planning of the economy in favor of market democracy meant the cessation of the basically global confrontation between antagonistic socio-political systems and a significant increase in the share of open societies in world politics. A unique feature of the self-liquidation of communism in history is the peaceful nature of this process, which was not accompanied, as was usually the case with such a radical change in the socio-political structure, by any serious military or revolutionary cataclysms. In a significant part of the Eurasian space - in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the territory of the former Soviet Union, a consensus in principle has developed in favor of a democratic form of socio-political structure. In the event of successful completion of the process of reforming these states, primarily Russia (due to its potential), into open societies, for the most part northern hemisphere- in Europe, North America, Eurasia - a community of peoples will be formed, living according to similar socio-political and economic principles, professing similar values, including in approaches to the processes of global world politics.

A natural consequence of the end of the main confrontation between the "first" and "second" worlds was the weakening and then the cessation of support for authoritarian regimes - clients of the two camps that fought during the Cold War in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Since one of the main advantages of such regimes for the East and West was, respectively, "anti-imperialist" or "anti-communist" orientation, with the end of the confrontation between the main antagonists, they lost their value as ideological allies and, as a result, lost material and political support. The fall of individual regimes of this kind in Somalia, Liberia, and Afghanistan was followed by the disintegration of these states and civil war. Most of the other countries, such as Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Zaire, began to move, though at different rates, away from authoritarianism. This further reduced the world field of the latter.

The 1980s, especially their second half, witnessed a large-scale process of democratization on all continents, not directly related to the end of the Cold War. Brazil, Argentina, Chile have moved from military-authoritarian to civilian parliamentary forms of government. Somewhat later, this trend spread to Central America. Indicative of the outcome of this process is that the 34 leaders who attended the December 1994 Americas Summit (Cuba did not receive an invitation) were democratically elected civilian leaders of their states. Similar processes of democratization, of course, with Asian specifics, were observed at that time in the Asia-Pacific region - in the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. In 1988, an elected government replaced the military regime in Pakistan. A major breakthrough towards democracy, not only for the African continent, was South Africa's rejection of the policy of apartheid. Elsewhere in Africa, the move away from authoritarianism has been slower. However, the fall of the most odious dictatorial regimes in Ethiopia, Uganda, Zaire, a certain progress in democratic reforms in Ghana, Benin, Kenya, and Zimbabwe indicate that the wave of democratization has not bypassed this continent either.

It should be noted that democracy has quite different degrees of maturity. This is evident in the evolution of democratic societies from the French and American revolutions to the present day. Primary forms of democracy in the form of regular multi-party elections, for example, in a number of African countries or in some newly independent states in the territory of the former USSR, differ significantly from the forms of mature democracies, say, of the Western European type. Even the most advanced democracies are imperfect, according to Lincoln's definition of democracy: "government by the people, elected by the people and carried out in the interests of the people." But it is also obvious that there is a line of demarcation between the varieties of democracies and authoritarianism, which determines the qualitative difference between the domestic and foreign policies of the societies located on both sides of it.

The global process of changing socio-political models took place in the late 80s - early 90s in different countries from different starting positions, had unequal depth, its results are in some cases ambiguous, and there are not always guarantees against relapses of authoritarianism. But the scale of this process, its simultaneous development in a number of countries, the fact that for the first time in history the field of democracy covers more than half of humanity and territory the globe, and most importantly, the most powerful states in economic, scientific, technical and military terms - all this allows us to conclude that there is a qualitative change in the socio-political field of the world community. The democratic form of organization of societies does not cancel the contradictions, and sometimes even acute conflict situations between the respective states. For example, the fact that parliamentary forms of government are currently functioning in India and Pakistan, in Greece and Turkey, does not exclude dangerous tension in their relations. The significant distance traveled by Russia from communism to democracy does not cancel disagreements with European states and the United States, say, on NATO expansion or the use of military force against the regimes of Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic. But the fact is that throughout history, democracies have never been at war with each other.

Much, of course, depends on the definition of the concepts of "democracy" and "war". A state is usually considered democratic if the executive and legislative powers are formed through competitive elections. This means that at least two independent parties participate in such elections, at least half of the adult population is eligible to vote, and there has been at least one peaceful constitutional transfer of power from one party to another. Unlike incidents, border clashes, crises, civil wars, international wars are military actions between states with combat losses of the armed forces over 1000 people.

Studies of all hypothetical exceptions to this pattern throughout world history from the war between Syracuse and Athens in the 5th century. BC e. up to the present time, they only confirm the fact that democracies are at war with authoritarian regimes and often start such conflicts, but they have never brought contradictions with other democratic states to war. It must be admitted that there are certain grounds for skepticism among those who point out that during the years of the existence of the Westphalian system, the field of interaction between democratic states was relatively narrow and their peaceful interaction was influenced by the general confrontation of a superior or equal group of authoritarian states. It is still not entirely clear how democratic states will behave towards each other in the absence or qualitative reduction in the scale of the threat from authoritarian states.

If, nevertheless, the pattern of peaceful interaction between democratic states is not violated in the 21st century, then the expansion of the field of democracy taking place in the world now will also mean an expansion of the global zone of peace. This, apparently, is the first and main qualitative difference between the new emerging system of international relations and the classical Westphalian system, in which the predominance of authoritarian states predetermined the frequency of wars both between them and with the participation of democratic countries.

A qualitative change in the relationship between democracy and authoritarianism in global scale gave grounds to the American researcher F. Fukuyama to proclaim the final victory of democracy and in this sense to announce the "end of history" as a struggle between historical formations. However, it seems that the massive advance of democracy at the turn of the century does not yet mean its complete victory. Communism as a socio-political system, although with certain changes, has been preserved in China, Vietnam, North Korea, Laos, and Cuba. His legacy is felt in a number of countries of the former Soviet Union, in Serbia.

Except, perhaps, North Korea elements are being introduced in all other socialist countries market economy they are somehow drawn into the world economic system. The practice of relations of some surviving communist states with other countries is governed by the principles of "peaceful coexistence" rather than "class struggle". The ideological charge of communism is focused more on domestic consumption, and pragmatism is increasingly gaining the upper hand in foreign policy. Partial economic reform and openness to international economic relations generate social forces that require a corresponding expansion of political freedoms. But the dominant one-party system works in the opposite direction. As a result, there is a "seesaw" effect moving from liberalism to authoritarianism and vice versa. In China, for example, it was a move from the pragmatic reforms of Deng Xiaoping to the forceful suppression of student protests in Tiananmen Square, then from a new wave of liberalization to tightening the screws, and back to pragmatism.

Experience of the 20th century shows that the communist system inevitably reproduces a foreign policy that conflicts with the politics generated by democratic societies. Of course, the fact of a radical difference in socio-political systems does not necessarily lead to the inevitability of a military conflict. But equally justified is the assumption that the existence of this contradiction does not exclude such a conflict and does not allow one to hope for the achievement of the level of relations that are possible between democratic states.

In the authoritarian sphere, there still remains a significant number of states whose socio-political model is determined either by the inertia of personal dictatorships, as, for example, in Iraq, Libya, Syria, or by the anomaly of the prosperity of medieval forms of Eastern rule, combined with technological progress in Saudi Arabia, the states of the Persian Gulf, some countries of the Maghreb. At the same time, the first group is in a state of irreconcilable confrontation with democracy, and the second is ready to cooperate with it as long as it does not seek to shake the socio-political status quo established in these countries. Authoritarian structures, albeit in a modified form, have taken root in a number of post-Soviet states, for example, in Turkmenistan.

A special place among authoritarian regimes is occupied by the countries of "Islamic statehood" of an extremist persuasion - Iran, Sudan, Afghanistan. The unique potential of influencing world politics is given to them by the international movement of Islamic political extremism, known under the not quite correct name “Islamic fundamentalism”. This revolutionary ideological trend that rejects Western democracy as a way of life of society, allowing terror and violence as a means of implementing the doctrine of "Islamic statehood", received in last years widespread among the population in most countries of the Middle East and other states with a high percentage of the Muslim population.

Unlike the surviving communist regimes, which (with the exception of North Korea) are looking for ways of rapprochement with democratic states, at least in the economic field, and whose ideological charge is fading, Islamic political extremism is dynamic, massive and really threatens the stability of the regimes in Saudi Arabia. , countries of the Persian Gulf, some states of the Maghreb, Pakistan, Turkey, Central Asia. Of course, when assessing the scale of the challenge of Islamic political extremism, the world community should observe a sense of proportion, take into account opposition to it in the Muslim world, for example, from secular and military structures in Algeria, Egypt, the dependence of the countries of the new Islamic statehood on the world economy, as well as signs of a certain erosion extremism in Iran.

The persistence and possibility of an increase in the number of authoritarian regimes does not exclude the possibility of military clashes both between them and with the democratic world. Apparently, it is in the sector of authoritarian regimes and in the zone of contact between the latter and the world of democracy that the most dangerous processes fraught with military conflicts may develop in the future. The “gray” zone of states that have moved away from authoritarianism, but have not yet completed democratic transformations, also remains non-conflicting. However, the general trend that has clearly manifested itself in recent times still testifies to a qualitative change in the global socio-political field in favor of democracy, and also to the fact that authoritarianism is waging historical rearguard battles. Of course, the study of further ways of developing international relations should include a more thorough analysis of the patterns of relations between countries that have reached different stages of democratic maturity, the impact of democratic predominance in the world on the behavior of authoritarian regimes, and so on.

Global economic organism

Proportionate socio-political changes in the world economic system. The fundamental refusal of the majority of former socialist countries from centralized economic planning meant the inclusion in the 1990s of the large-scale potential and markets of these countries in the global market economy system. True, it was not about ending the confrontation between two approximately equal blocs, as was the case in the military-political field. The economic structures of socialism have never offered any serious competition to the Western economic system. At the end of the 1980s, the share of the CMEA member countries in the gross world product was about 9%, and that of the industrially developed capitalist countries was 57%. Much of the Third World economy was oriented towards the market system. Therefore, the process of incorporating former socialist economies into world economy rather had a perspective value and symbolized the completion of the formation or restoration at a new level of a single global economic system. Its qualitative changes were accumulating in the market system even before the end of the Cold War.

In the 1980s, there was a broad breakthrough in the world towards the liberalization of the world economy - reducing state guardianship over the economy, granting greater freedoms to private entrepreneurship within countries and abandoning protectionism in relations with foreign partners, which, however, did not exclude state assistance in entering the world markets. It was these factors that primarily provided the economies of a number of countries, for example, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, an unprecedented high growth rate. The crisis that has recently hit a number of countries in Southeast Asia, according to many economists, was the result of the "overheating" of the economies as a result of their rapid rise while maintaining archaic political structures that distort economic liberalization. Economic reforms in Turkey contributed to the rapid modernization of this country. In the early 1990s, the process of liberalization spread to Latin American countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. The rejection of strict state planning, the reduction of the budget deficit, the privatization of large banks and state-owned enterprises, and the reduction of customs tariffs allowed them to sharply increase their economic growth rates and take second place in this indicator after the countries of East Asia. At the same time, similar reforms, albeit of a much less radical nature, are beginning to make their way in India. The 1990s are reaping the tangible benefits of opening China's economy to the outside world.

The logical consequence of these processes was a significant intensification of international interaction between national economies. The growth rate of international trade exceeds the world rate of domestic economic growth. Today, more than 15% of the world's gross domestic product is sold in foreign markets. Involvement in international trade has become a serious and universal factor in the growth of the well-being of the world community. The completion in 1994 of the GATT Uruguay Round, which provides for a further significant reduction in tariffs and the spread of trade liberalization to service flows, the transformation of GATT into the World Trade Organization marked the entry of international trade to a qualitatively new frontier, an increase in the interdependence of the world economic system.

In the last decade, a significantly intensified process of internationalization of financial capital has developed in the same direction. This was especially evident in the intensification of international investment flows, which since 1995 have been growing faster than trade and production. This was the result of a significant change in the investment climate in the world. Democratization, political stabilization and economic liberalization in many regions have made them more attractive to foreign investors. On the other hand, there has been a psychological turning point in many developing countries, which have realized that attracting foreign capital is a springboard for development, facilitates access to international markets and access to the latest technologies. This, of course, required a partial renunciation of absolute economic sovereignty and meant increased competition for a number of domestic industries. But the examples of the "Asian tigers" and China have prompted most developing countries and states with economies in transition to join the competition to attract investment. In the mid-90s, the volume of foreign investment exceeded 2 trillion. dollars and continues to grow rapidly. Organizationally, this trend is reinforced by a noticeable increase in the activity of international banks, investment funds and stock exchanges. Another facet of this process is a significant expansion of the field of activity of transnational corporations, which today control about a third of the assets of all private companies in the world, and the volume of sales of their products is approaching the gross product of the US economy.

Undoubtedly, promoting the interests of domestic companies in the world market remains one of the main tasks of any state. With all the liberalization of international economic relations, interethnic contradictions, as often violent disputes between the United States and Japan over trade imbalances or with the European Union over its subsidization of agriculture, persist. But it is obvious that with the current degree of interdependence of the world economy, almost no state can oppose its selfish interests to the world community, since it risks becoming a global pariah or undermining the existing system with equally deplorable results not only for competitors, but also for its own economy.

The process of internationalization and strengthening of the interdependence of the world economic system proceeds in two planes - in the global and in the plane of regional integration. Theoretically, regional integration could spur interregional rivalry. But today this danger is limited to some new features of the world economic system. First of all, the openness of new regional formations - they do not erect additional tariff barriers along their periphery, but remove them in relations between participants faster than tariffs are reduced globally within the WTO. This is an incentive for further, more radical reduction of barriers on a global scale, including between regional economic structures. In addition, some countries are members of several regional groupings. For example, the USA, Canada, Mexico are full members of both APEC and NAFTA. And the vast majority of transnational corporations simultaneously operate in the orbits of all existing regional organizations.

The new qualities of the world economic system - the rapid expansion of the market economy zone, the liberalization of national economies and their interaction through trade and international investment, the cosmopolitanization of an increasing number of subjects of the world economy - TNCs, banks, investment groups - have a serious impact on world politics, international relations. World economy becomes so interconnected and interdependent that the interests of all its active participants require the preservation of stability not only in economic but also in military-political terms. Some scholars who refer to the fact that a high degree of interaction in the European economy at the beginning of the 20th century. did not prevent unraveling. First World War, they ignore a qualitatively new level of interdependence of today's world economy and the cosmopolitanization of its significant segment, a radical change in the ratio of economic and military factors in world politics. But the most significant, including for the formation of a new system of international relations, is the fact that the process of creating a new world economic community interacts with democratic transformations of the socio-political field. In addition, recently the globalization of the world economy has increasingly played the role of a stabilizer in world politics and the security sphere. This influence is especially noticeable in the behavior of a number of authoritarian states and societies moving from authoritarianism to democracy. The large-scale and growing dependence of the economy, for example, China, a number of newly independent states on world markets, investments, technologies makes them adjust their positions on the political and military problems of international life.

Naturally, the global economic horizon is not cloudless. The main problem remains the gap between industrialized countries and a significant number of developing or economically stagnating countries. The processes of globalization cover primarily the community of developed countries. In recent years, the trend towards a progressive widening of this gap has intensified. According to many economists, a significant number of African countries and a number of other states, such as Bangladesh, are “forever” behind. For a large group of emerging economies, in particular Latin America, their attempts to approach world leaders are nullified by huge external debt and the need to service it. A special case is presented by economies that are making the transition from a centrally planned system to a market model. Their entry into the world markets for goods, services, and capital is especially painful.

There are two opposing hypotheses regarding the impact of this gap, conventionally referred to as the gap between the new North and South, on world politics. Many internationalists see this long-term phenomenon as the main source of future conflicts and even attempts by the South to forcibly redistribute the economic welfare of the world. Indeed, the current serious lag behind the leading powers in terms of such indicators as the share of GDP in the world economy or per capita income will require, say, from Russia (which accounts for about 1.5% of the world gross product), India, Ukraine, several decades of development at rates several times higher than the world average in order to approach the level of the United States, Japan, Germany and keep up with China. At the same time, it must be borne in mind that today's leading countries will not stand still. Similarly, it is difficult to assume that in the foreseeable future any new regional economic grouping - the CIS or, say, emerging in South America - will be able to approach the EU, APEC, NAFTA, each of which accounts for over 20% of the gross world product, world trade and finance.

According to another point of view, the internationalization of the world economy, the weakening of the charge of economic nationalism, the fact that the economic interaction of states is no longer a zero-sum game, give hope that the economic divide between North and South will not turn into a new source of global confrontation, especially in a situation where, although lagging behind the North in absolute terms, the South will nevertheless develop, increasing its well-being. Here, the analogy with the modus vivendi between large and medium-sized companies within national economies is probably appropriate: medium-sized companies do not necessarily antagonistically clash with leading corporations and seek to bridge the gap between them by any means. Much depends on the organizational and legal environment in which the business operates, in this case the global one.

The combination of liberalization and globalization of the world economy, along with obvious benefits, also brings hidden threats. The purpose of competition between corporations and financial institutions is profit, not the preservation of the stability of the market economy. Liberalization reduces restrictions on competition, while globalization expands its scope. As shown by the recent financial crisis in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Russia, which affected the markets of the whole world, the new state of the world economy means the globalization of not only positive, but also negative trends. Understanding this makes the world financial institutions save the economic systems of South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia. But these one-time transactions only underline the continuing contradiction between the benefits of liberal globalism and the cost of maintaining the stability of the world economy. Apparently, the globalization of risks will require the globalization of their management, the improvement of such structures as the WTO, the IMF and the group of seven leading industrial powers. It is also obvious that the growing cosmopolitan sector of the global economy is less accountable to the world community than national economies are to states.

Be that as it may, the new stage of world politics definitely brings its economic component to the fore. Thus, it can be assumed that the unification of a greater Europe is ultimately hindered, rather, not by conflicts of interests in the military-political field, but by a serious economic gap between the EU, on the one hand, and the post-communist countries, on the other. Similarly, the main logic of the development of international relations, for example, in the Asia-Pacific region is dictated not so much by considerations of military security as by economic challenges and opportunities. Over the past years, such international economic institutions as the G7, the WTO, the IMF and The World Bank, the governing bodies of the EU, APEC, NAFTA, are clearly compared in terms of influence on world politics with the Security Council, General Assembly UN, regional political organizations, military alliances, and often surpass them. Thus, the economization of world politics and the formation of a new quality of the world economy are becoming another main parameter of the system of international relations that is being formed today.

New parameters of military security

No matter how paradoxical, at first glance, the assumption about the development of a trend towards the demilitarization of the world community in the light of the recent dramatic conflict in the Balkans, tension in the Persian Gulf, the instability of the regimes for the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it nevertheless has grounds for serious consideration in the long term. .

The end of the Cold War coincided with a radical change in the place and role of the military security factor in world politics. In the late 1980s and 1990s, there was a massive reduction in the global potential for Cold War military confrontation. Since the second half of the 1980s, global defense spending has been steadily declining. Within the framework of international treaties and in the manner of unilateral initiatives, an unprecedented reduction in nuclear missile, conventional weapons And personnel armed forces. The significant redeployment of armed forces to national territories, development of confidence-building measures and positive cooperation in the military field. A large part of the world's military-industrial complex is being converted. The parallel intensification of limited conflicts on the periphery of the central military confrontation of the Cold War, for all their drama and "surprise" against the backdrop of peaceful euphoria, characteristic of the late 1980s, cannot be compared in scale and consequences with the leading trend in the demilitarization of world politics.

The development of this trend has several fundamental reasons. The prevailing democratic monotype of the world community, as well as the internationalization of the world economy, reduce the nutritional political and economic environment of the global institution of war. An equally important factor is the revolutionary significance of the nature of nuclear weapons, irrefutably proven throughout the course of the Cold War.

The creation of nuclear weapons meant in a broad sense the disappearance of the possibility of victory for any of the parties, which throughout the entire previous history of mankind was an indispensable condition for waging wars. Back in 1946. The American scientist B. Brody drew attention to this qualitative characteristic of nuclear weapons and expressed his firm conviction that in the future its only task and function would be to deter war. Some time later this axiom was confirmed by A.D. Sakharov. Throughout the Cold War, both the US and the USSR tried to find ways around this revolutionary reality. Both sides made active attempts to get out of the nuclear stalemate by building up and improving nuclear missile potentials, developing sophisticated strategies for its use, and finally, approaches to creating anti-missile systems. Fifty years later, having created about 25 thousand strategic nuclear warheads alone, the nuclear powers came to the inevitable conclusion: the use of nuclear weapons means not only the destruction of the enemy, but also guaranteed suicide. Moreover, the prospect of a nuclear escalation has sharply limited the ability of the opposing sides to use conventional weapons. Nuclear weapons made the Cold War a kind of "forced peace" between the nuclear powers.

The experience of nuclear confrontation during the Cold War years, the radical reductions in the US and Russian nuclear missile arsenals in accordance with the START-1 and START-2 treaties, the renunciation of nuclear weapons by Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine, the agreement in principle between the Russian Federation and the United States on further deeper reductions in nuclear charges and their means of delivery, the restraint of Great Britain, France and China in the development of their national nuclear potentials allow us to conclude that the leading powers recognize, in principle, the futility of nuclear weapons as a means of achieving victory or an effective means of influencing world politics. Although today it is difficult to imagine a situation where one of the powers could use nuclear weapons, the possibility of using them as a last resort or as a result of a mistake still remains. In addition, the retention of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, even in the process of radical reductions, increases the "negative significance" of the state possessing them. For example, concerns (regardless of their justification) regarding the safety nuclear materials on the territory of the former Soviet Union further increase the attention of the world community to its successors, including the Russian Federation.

Several fundamental obstacles stand in the way of universal nuclear disarmament. The complete renunciation of nuclear weapons also means the disappearance of their main function - the deterrence of war, including conventional war. In addition, a number of powers, such as Russia or China, may consider the presence of nuclear weapons as a temporary compensation for the relative weakness of their conventional weapons capabilities, and, together with Britain and France, as a political symbol of great power. Finally, other countries, especially those in a state of local cold wars with their neighbors, such as Israel, India, and Pakistan, have learned that even minimal nuclear weapons potentials can serve as an effective means of deterring war.

The testing of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan in the spring of 1998 reinforces the stalemate in the confrontation between these countries. It can be assumed that the legalization of the nuclear status by long-standing rivals will force them to more energetically seek ways to resolve the long-standing conflict in principle. On the other hand, the not quite adequate reaction of the world community to such a blow to the non-proliferation regime may give rise to a temptation for other “threshold” states to follow the example of Delhi and Islamabad. And this will lead to a domino effect, whereby the likelihood of an unauthorized or irrational detonation of a nuclear weapon may outweigh its deterrent capabilities.

Some dictatorial regimes, taking into account the results of the wars for the Falklands, in the Persian Gulf, in the Balkans, not only realized the futility of confrontation with the leading powers, which have a qualitative superiority in the field of conventional weapons, but also came to the understanding that the possession of weapons of mass destruction. Thus, two medium-term tasks are really coming to the fore in the nuclear sphere - strengthening the system of non-proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction and, at the same time, determining the functional parameters and the minimum sufficient size of the nuclear potentials of the powers possessing them.

Tasks in the field of preserving and strengthening non-proliferation regimes today are pushing aside in terms of priority the classic problem of reducing strategic arms of the Russian Federation and the United States. The long-term task remains to continue to clarify the expediency and search for ways to move towards a nuclear-free world in the context of a new world policy.

The dialectical link connecting the regimes of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missile means of their delivery, on the one hand, with the control over strategic arms of "traditional" nuclear powers, on the other, is the problem of anti-missile defense and the fate of the ABM Treaty. The prospect of creating a nuclear, chemical and bacteriological weapons, as well as missiles medium range, and in the near future and intercontinental missiles by a number of states puts forward the problem of protection against such a danger to the center of strategic thinking. The United States has already outlined its preferred solution - the creation of a "thin" anti-missile defense of the country, as well as regional theater anti-missile systems, in particular, in the Asia-Pacific region - against North Korean missiles, and in the Middle East - against Iranian missiles. Such unilaterally deployed anti-missile capabilities would devalue the nuclear deterrence potentials of the Russian Federation and China, which could lead to the latter's desire to compensate for the change in the strategic balance by building up their own nuclear missile weapons with the inevitable destabilization of the global strategic situation.

Another topical issue is the phenomenon of local conflicts. The end of the Cold War was accompanied by a noticeable intensification of local conflicts. Most of them were rather domestic than international, in the sense that the contradictions that caused them were related to separatism, the struggle for power or territory within one state. Most of the conflicts were the result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, the aggravation of national-ethnic contradictions, the manifestation of which was previously restrained by authoritarian systems or the bloc discipline of the Cold War. Other conflicts, such as in Africa, were the result of weakening statehood and economic ruin. The third category is long-term "traditional" conflicts in the Middle East, in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, around Kashmir, which survived the end of the Cold War, or flared up again, as happened in Cambodia.

With all the drama of local conflicts at the turn of the 80s - 90s, over time, the severity of most of them subsided somewhat, as, for example, in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and finally in Tajikistan . This is partly due to the gradual realization by the conflicting parties of the high cost and futility of a military solution to problems, and in many cases this trend was reinforced by peace enforcement (this was the case in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Transnistria), other peacekeeping efforts with the participation of international organizations - the UN, OSCE, CIS. True, in several cases, for example, in Somalia and Afghanistan, such efforts have not yielded the desired results. This trend is reinforced by significant moves towards a peace settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Pretoria and the "front-line states". The corresponding conflicts have served as a breeding ground for instability in the Middle East and southern Africa.

On the whole, the global picture of local armed conflicts is also changing. In 1989 there were 36 major conflicts in 32 districts, and in 1995 there were 30 such conflicts in 25 districts. Some of them, such as the mutual extermination of the Tutsi and Hutu peoples in East Africa, take on the character of genocide. A real assessment of the scale and dynamics of "new" conflicts is hampered by their emotional perception. They broke out in those regions that were considered (without sufficient reason) to be traditionally stable. In addition, they arose at a time when the world community believed in the absence of conflict in world politics after the end of the Cold War. An impartial comparison of the “new” conflicts with the “old” ones that raged during the Cold War in Asia, Africa, Central America, the Near and Middle East, despite the scale of the latest conflict in the Balkans, allows us to draw a more balanced conclusion about the long-term trend.

More relevant today are armed operations that are undertaken under the leadership of leading Western countries, primarily the United States, against countries deemed to violate international law, democratic or humanitarian norms. Most good examples are operations against Iraq to stop the aggression against Kuwait, to enforce peace at the final stage of the internal conflict in Bosnia, to restore the rule of law in Haiti and Somalia. These operations were carried out with the sanction of the UN Security Council. A special place is occupied by a large-scale military operation undertaken by NATO unilaterally without agreement with the UN against Yugoslavia in connection with the situation in which the Albanian population found itself in Kosovo. The significance of the latter lies in the fact that it calls into question the principles of the global political and legal regime, as it was enshrined in the UN Charter.

The global reduction in military arsenals more clearly marked the qualitative gap in armaments between the leading military powers and the rest of the world. The Falklands conflict at the end of the Cold War, and then the Gulf War and operations in Bosnia and Serbia, clearly demonstrated this gap. Progress in miniaturization and increasing the ability to destroy conventional warheads, improvement of guidance, control, command and reconnaissance systems, means of electronic warfare, and increased mobility are justifiably considered the decisive factors of modern warfare. In Cold War terms, the balance of military power between North and South has shifted further in favor of the former.

Undoubtedly, against this background, the growing material capabilities of the United States to influence the development of the situation in the field of military security in most regions of the world. Abstracting from the nuclear factor, we can say: financial capabilities, high quality of weapons, the ability to quickly transfer large contingents of troops and weapons arsenals over long distances, a powerful presence in the oceans, the preservation of the main infrastructure of bases and military alliances - all this has turned the United States into a militarily the only global power. The fragmentation of the military potential of the USSR during its collapse, a deep and prolonged economic crisis that painfully affected the army and the military-industrial complex, the slow pace of reforming the weapons forces, the virtual absence of reliable allies limited the military capabilities of the Russian Federation to the Eurasian space. The systematic, long-term modernization of China's armed forces suggests a serious increase in its ability to project military power in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. Despite attempts by some Western European countries to play a more active military role outside NATO's area of ​​responsibility, as was the case during the Gulf War or during peacekeeping operations in Africa, the Balkans, and as proclaimed for the future in the new NATO strategic doctrine, the parameters The military potential of Western Europe proper, without American participation, remains largely regional. All other countries of the world, for various reasons, can only count on the fact that the military potential of each of them will be one of the regional factors.

The new situation in the field of global military security is generally determined by the trend towards limiting the use of war in the classical sense. But at the same time, new forms of the use of force are emerging, such as "operation for humanitarian reasons." In combination with changes in the socio-political and economic fields, such processes in the military sphere have a serious impact on the formation of a new system of international relations.

Cosmopolitanization of world politics

The change in the traditional Westphalian system of international relations today affects not only the content of world politics, but also the circle of its subjects. If for three and a half centuries states have been the dominant participants in international relations, and world politics is mainly interstate politics, then in recent years they have been crowded out by transnational companies, international private financial institutions, non-governmental public organizations that do not have a specific nationality, are largely cosmopolitan.

Economic giants, which were previously easily attributed to the economic structures of a particular country, have lost this link, since their financial capital is transnational, managers are representatives of different nationalities, enterprises, headquarters and marketing systems are often located on different continents. Many of them can raise not the national flag, but only their own corporate flag on the flagpole. To a greater or lesser extent, the process of cosmopolitanization, or "offshorization", has affected all the major corporations in the world. Accordingly, their patriotism in relation to a particular state has decreased. The behavior of the transnational community of global financial centers is often as influential as the decisions of the IMF, the G7.

Today, the international non-governmental organization Greenpeace effectively fulfills the role of the “global environmental policeman” and often sets priorities in this area that most states are forced to accept. The public organization Amnesty International has much more influence than the UN Interstate Center for Human Rights. The television company CNN has abandoned the use of the term "foreign" in its broadcasts, since most of the world's countries are "domestic" for it. The authority of world churches and religious associations is expanding and growing significantly. An increasing number of people are born in one country, have the citizenship of another, and live and work in a third. It is often easier for a person to communicate via the Internet with people living on other continents than with housemates. Cosmopolitanization has also affected the worst part of the human community - organizations international terrorism, crime, drug mafias do not know the fatherland, and their influence on world affairs remains at an all-time high level.

All this undermines one of the most important foundations of the Westphalian system - sovereignty, the right of the state to act as the supreme judge within national borders and the sole representative of the nation in international affairs. The voluntary transfer of a part of sovereignty to interstate institutions in the process of regional integration or within the framework of such international organizations as the OSCE, the Council of Europe, etc., has been supplemented in recent years by the spontaneous process of its “diffusion” on a global scale.

There is a point of view according to which the international community is reaching a higher level of world politics, with a long-term perspective of the formation of the United States of the World. Or, to put it modern language, is moving towards a system similar in spontaneous and democratic principles of construction and operation to the Internet. Obviously, this is too fantastic a forecast. As a prototype of the future system of world politics, one should probably consider European Union. Be that as it may, it can be asserted with full confidence that the globalization of world politics, the growth of the cosmopolitan component in it in the near future will require states to seriously reconsider their place and role in the activities of the world community.

Increasing the transparency of borders, strengthening the intensification of transnational communication, the technological capabilities of the information revolution lead to the globalization of processes in the spiritual sphere of the life of the world community. Globalization in other areas has led to a certain erasure of national features of everyday life, tastes, and fashion. The new quality of international political and economic processes, the situation in the field of military security opens up additional opportunities and stimulates the search for a new quality of life in the spiritual realm as well. Already today, with rare exceptions, the doctrine of the priority of human rights over national sovereignty can be considered universal. The end of the global ideological struggle between capitalism and communism made it possible to take a fresh look at the spiritual values ​​that dominate the world, the relationship between the rights of an individual and the welfare of society, national and global ideas. Recently, criticism of the negative features of the consumer society, the culture of hedonism has been growing in the West, and a search is being made for ways to combine individualism and a new model of moral revival. The directions of the search for a new morality of the world community are evidenced, for example, by the call of the President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Havel, to revive “a natural, unique and inimitable sense of the world, an elementary sense of justice, the ability to understand things in the same way as others, a sense of increased responsibility, wisdom, good taste, courage, compassion and faith in the importance of simple actions that do not pretend to be the universal key to salvation.

The tasks of the moral renaissance are among the first on the agenda of world churches, the policies of a number of leading states. Of great importance is the result of the search for a new national idea that combines specific and universal values, a process that goes on, in essence, in all post-communist societies. There are suggestions that in the XXI century. the ability of a state to ensure the spiritual flourishing of its society will be no less important for determining its place and role in the world community than material well-being and military power.

Globalization and cosmopolitanization of the world community are determined not only by the opportunities associated with new processes in its life, but also by the challenges of recent decades. First of all, we are talking about such planetary tasks as the protection of the world ecological system, the regulation of global migration flows, the tension that periodically arises in connection with population growth and the limited natural resources of the globe. Obviously - and this has been confirmed by practice - that the solution of such problems requires a planetary approach adequate to their scale, mobilization of efforts not only of national governments, but also of non-state transnational organizations of the world community.

Summing up, we can say that the process of forming a single world community, a global wave of democratization, a new quality of the world economy, radical demilitarization and a change in the vector of the use of force, the emergence of new, non-state, subjects of world politics, the internationalization of the spiritual sphere of human life and challenges to the world community give grounds for the assumption of the formation of a new system of international relations, different not only from the one that existed during the Cold War, but in many respects from the traditional Westphalian system. To all appearances, it was not the end of the Cold War that gave rise to new trends in world politics; it only strengthened them. Rather, it was the new, transcendental processes in the field of politics, economics, security, and the spiritual sphere that emerged during the Cold War that blew up the old system of international relations and are shaping its new quality.

In the world science of international relations, there is currently no unity regarding the essence and driving forces of the new system of international relations. This, apparently, is explained by the fact that today's world politics is characterized by a clash of traditional and new, hitherto unknown factors. Nationalism fights against internationalism, geopolitics - against global universalism. Such fundamental concepts as "power", "influence", "national interests" are being transformed. The range of subjects of international relations is expanding and the motivation for their behavior is changing. The new content of world politics requires new organizational forms. It is still premature to speak of the birth of a new system of international relations as a completed process. It is perhaps more realistic to talk about the main trends in the formation of the future world order, its growth out of the former system of international relations.

As with any analysis, in this case it is important to observe the measure in assessing the relationship between the traditional and the newly emerging. Roll in any direction distorts the perspective. Nevertheless, even a somewhat exaggerated emphasis on new trends in the future that is being formed today is now methodologically more justified than fixation on attempts to explain emerging unknown phenomena exclusively with the help of traditional concepts. There is no doubt that the stage of a fundamental demarcation between new and old approaches must be followed by a stage of synthesis of the new and the unchanged in modern international life. It is important to correctly determine the ratio of national and global factors, the new place of the state in the world community, to balance such traditional categories as geopolitics, nationalism, power, national interests, with new transnational processes and regimes. States that have correctly determined the long-term perspective of the formation of a new system of international relations can count on greater effectiveness of their efforts, and those who continue to act on the basis of traditional ideas risk being at the tail end of world progress.

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